ZHEJIANG ACTIVISTS ON POLITICAL ANNIVERSARIES, SOCIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 000368 SIPDIS STATE FOR DRL O'SULLIVAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/20/2034 TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI CH SUBJECT: ZHEJIANG ACTIVISTS ON POLITICAL ANNIVERSARIES, SOCIAL INSTABILITY, AND "CLASS WARFARE" REF: A. (A) SHANGHAI 253 ¶B. (B) BEIJING 1734 ¶C. (C) 08 SHANGHAI 523 ¶D. (D) 08 SHANGHAI 522 ¶E. (E) SHANGHAI 250 CLASSIFIED BY: BEATRICE CAMP, CONSUL GENERAL, U.S. CONSULATE SHANGHAI, U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Human rights activists in Zhejiang Province told PolOff they currently enjoy relative freedom of movement following restrictions during the June 4 period, but they predict much tighter controls in the run-up to the 60th anniversary of the PRC in October. The activists remain concerned about social instability. They point to netizens' angst over recent incidents of "class warfare" in the provincial capital of Hangzhou as evidence of discontent. End Summary. Restrictions Relaxed...For Now -------------- ¶2. (C) Two prominent human rights activists in Zhejiang Province told PolOff they currently enjoy relative freedom of movement in contrast to restrictions during the June 4 period. During an August 12 meeting in Zhejiang provincial capital Hangzhou, Wen Kejian, a freelance writer and Charter 08 signatory, said he has encountered few difficulties with police in July and August. The relatively open atmosphere, Wen said, sharply contrasts with the June 4 period when he and several other activists were placed under house arrest by security forces (Ref A). In a year of sensitive political anniversaries, the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in June was up to now the most restricted time for activists, Wen observed. ¶3. (C) Wenzhou-based activist Yin Weihong supported Wen's assessment. During a meeting in Shanghai in late July, Yin said he met with China Democracy Party (CDP) activists Zhu Yufu, Zhu Zhenming, Shan Chenfeng, and Wang Donghai in Hangzhou on July ¶21. According to Yin, the CDP activists were "optimistic" because while their political activities remain curtailed, they also reported enjoying greater freedom of movement. (Note: Zhu Yufu was among those placed under house arrest in Hangzhou in June. Ref A.) Looking Ahead to October 1 -------------- ¶4. (C) Zhejiang activists, however, predict September and October will be tightly controlled in the run-up to the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Yin Weihong said controls in Zhejiang will not be as strict as in Beijing, but the situation would be tough for activists. Wen Kejian expects an "October 1 crackdown" will begin in early September. Police again will restrict the movement of activists and detain some activist leaders during the 60th anniversary period, Wen predicted. ¶5. (C) Chinese authorities implemented tighter internet controls in recent months, including blocking Facebook and Twitter, the activists observed. Internet controls, including blocking emails, have frustrated attempts to "spread the word" about human rights-related news, said Yin Weihong. He lamented, for example, that few people in China are aware dissident writer and Charter 08 signer Liu Xiaobo was formally charged with inciting subversion in late June after six months in detention (Ref B). (Note: Liu was one of the leaders of Charter 08, a manifesto calling for sweeping political reforms in China signed by more than 300 leading intellectuals and activists and posted on the internet last December.) Charter 08: Where Are They Now? SHANGHAI 00000368 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶6. (C) Wen Kejian, one of Zhejiang's leaders of the Charter 08 movement (Ref C),said activists are watching the Liu Xiaobo situation closely. Wen said Charter 08 "still has momentum," but he acknowledged the movement can do little until Liu Xiaobo's fate is known. Zhejiang Charter 08 signatories have faced difficulties because of their participation, Wen said. For example, Zhejiang University authorities allegedly refused sociology professor Feng Gang's otherwise qualified application for a position as dean because of Feng's involvement in Charter ¶08. Social Stability Remains Top Concern -------------- ¶7. (C) Even as East China's economy slowly recovers from a global drop in demand for the region's exports -- which led to lower growth rates during the first half of the year -- the Zhejiang activists said they remain concerned about social instability (Ref D). Many of Zhejiang's small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have closed, Wen said, leaving many migrant workers unemployed. According to Wen, Zhejiang is "exporting its social stability problem" to central and western China by requiring migrants without jobs to leave. (Note: Septel to follow on the province's new residency policy.) ¶8. (C) There were no reports of instability in Zhejiang related to July disturbances in western China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region, Wen stated. He highlighted, however, the ongoing national concerns of social instability by referring to remarks emphasizing "safeguarding stability" by State Councilor Dai Bingguo during the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in late July. Wen claimed social instability concerns in Zhejiang are particularly acute, stating, "farmers, workers are all angry...there is a lot of pent up tension." "People Are Angry" -------------- ¶9. (C) On August 13, three local Hangzhou residents, who described themselves as netizens born after Deng Xiaoping came to power, said several recent accidents in the city have sparked discussions in the blogosphere and raised concerns of "class warfare." The men were particularly angry about a reckless driving accident resulting in the death of a pedestrian on May 7 (Ref E),a brawl between security guards and college students at a local club on June 20, and a fatal drunken driving accident on August 5. In both car accidents, drivers of luxury automobiles traveling at fast speeds struck and killed young pedestrians (a 25-year-old died on May 7 and a 17-year-old on August 5). The men believed both incidents were the result of "wealthy citizens behaving ignorantly and believing they were above the law." According to one netizen, "I don't care how much money you have, you still need to obey the laws." ¶10. (C) On June 20, security guards at Club 88 in Hangzhou severely beat two students who were "giving the guards a hard time." Rumors immediately circulated on the internet that the students had been killed. The students are alive but remain in critical condition, the men said. The local government closed the nightclub, but the incident served as another example of "class warfare" in Hangzhou between the poor (security guards) and the rich (university students),the netizens added. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Hangzhou is the capital of one of China's wealthiest provinces where rich residents (investors, businessmen, students) live side-by-side with migrant workers who are employed at factories and in hotels and restaurants. Despite the activists' concerns, there does not appear to be a near-term threat of large-scale social instability as a result of reactions to the rich-poor gap in Zhejiang. At issue in the SHANGHAI 00000368 003 OF 003 province, and in the East China region, is whether the economy will recover sufficiently to meet residents' expectations and to discourage acts of social unrest. CAMP