MAYBE THE CAGE IS GETTING BIGGER: HANGZHOU CONTACTS DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SHANGHAI 000250 STATE FOR EAP/CM, INR AND DRL NSC FOR LOI, KUCHTA-HELBLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/5/2034 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON ELAB SOCI CH SUBJECT: MAYBE THE CAGE IS GETTING BIGGER: HANGZHOU CONTACTS DISCUSS POLITICAL TRENDS ON JUNE 4 REF: A. (A) SHANGHAI 249 ¶B. (B) SHANGHAI 245 ¶C. (C) SHANGHAI 193 ¶D. (D) 08 SHANGHAI 522 ¶E. (E) CHENGDU 99 ¶F. (F) GUANGZHOU 338 ¶G. (G) BEIJING 1467 ¶H. (H) BEIJING 1390 CLASSIFIED BY: CHRISTOPHER BEEDE, POL/ECON CHIEF, US CONSULATE SHANGHAI, DEPARTMENT OF STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Three Hangzhou-based reform-minded contacts told PolOff on the 20th anniversary of the June 4 Tiananmen Square massacre that they are optimistic the "cage is getting bigger" in East China, as the Communist Party, unable to control everything, has been forced to yield ground on basic freedoms in cities like Hangzhou, which they said is more "open" than Shanghai or Beijing. Corruption remains the top concern of both Central and Zhejiang provincial government leaders, and aggressive anti-corruption efforts so far in 2009 demonstrate the Party's seriousness with regard to maintaining social stability, they said. The recent public furor over a high profile fatal car accident in Hangzhou is illustrative of the direction of political trends in East China today, they claimed. They expressed concern, however, about the possible negative political impact resulting from the economic downturn, remarking that the current Central Government economic stimulus package will not meet the needs of Zhejiang's business community, which is known to be a center of China's private small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). End Summary. Hangzhou Contacts: "The Cage is Getting Bigger" -------------- - ¶2. (C) Zhuang Daohe, a Hangzhou-based lawyer and a Charter 08 signatory, told PolOff on the 20th anniversary of the June 4 Tiananmen Square massacre that he is optimistic about current political trends in East China. Meeting in Shanghai, which was quiet on the Tiananmen anniversary (Ref A and B),Zhuang expressed his belief that the government and the Party are unable to control everything, which is one factor that makes "today's crisis" different from the political crisis in 1989. Lawyers and human rights activists have more room to maneuver in cities like Hangzhou, which are more "open" than Shanghai and Beijing and where residents have greater freedom. Zhuang said that he is not the only human rights activist in Hangzhou who is increasingly optimistic. "Even Zhu Yufu is more optimistic," Zhuang stated, referring to a Hangzhou-based dissident who was detained prior to June 4 (Ref A). Xu Pengchen, General Manager of the Zhejiang Pengsen Import and Export Company, who accompanied Zhuang to the meeting, added that there also are more opportunities for exchanges between the Hangzhou business community and foreigners, which fosters a "more open" outlook. Corruption Still the Top Concern -------------- ¶3. (C) Xu said that one factor in common between 2009 and 1989 is that the Communist Party sees corruption as its greatest potential downfall, and in a year of sensitive political anniversaries, Zhejiang Province has seen an increase in the number of corruption cases that have been investigated and prosecuted. He cited the case of Wang Yuanhua, the former Party Secretary of Zhejiang's Provincial Disciplinary Inspection Commission and CPC Zhejiang Standing Committee member, who was arrested in Hangzhou by CPC Central Disciplinary Inspection Commission officers on April 14 for his role in the bribery scandal of former Gome CEO Huang Guangyu (Ref C). Xu said the government's aggressive anti-corruption efforts throughout the province so far in 2009 demonstrate the Party's seriousness with regard to maintaining social stability in Zhejiang. Furor Over Car Accident -------------- ¶4. (C) The recent public furor over a high profile fatal car accident in Hangzhou is illustrative of the direction of political trends in East China today, they claimed. On May 7, a 25-year-old resident of Hangzhou, Tan Zhuo, was struck and killed by a red sports car driven by 20-year-old Hu Bin, a wealthy university student who was racing through city streets at speeds approaching 100 mph. Victim Tan was himself a native of a poor region in Hunan Province who worked his way through Hangzhou Normal University and remained in the city to work after graduation. Bloggers immediately passed information and photos about the incident, and dozens of Zhejiang University students went to the scene of the accident. Witnesses reportedly overheard Hu Bin comment to friends after the accident that "money can solve anything," and netizens widely circulated the quote on the internet. More than 1000 Hangzhou residents attended Tan's funeral even though the local propaganda department had blocked official news of the accident. Hangzhou Mayor Cai Qi ultimately issued an instruction to the judiciary to "severely punish" the driver. On May 21, Xinmin Weekly reported that Hu's family had agreed to pay RMB 1.13 million (USD 150,000) to the victim's family as "civil compensation" but the case still would go through a criminal trial. ¶5. (C) According to the contacts, the incident reiterated three key baseline social and political trends that have emerged in East China in recent years: (1) the explosion in scale and scope of information exchanged on the internet, (2) the deeply held concern about the growing rich-poor gap, and (3) the anger over threats to public safety that are not addressed by the government. Xu Pengchen observed that young residents of Hangzhou were quickly apprised of the accident by active bloggers who were able to exchange news and photos and share information. Spontaneous candlelight vigils that were held for the victim on the side of the road in Hangzhou by dozens of mourners were organized online, Xu observed. Zhuang Daohe stressed that the accident clearly demonstrated concerns about the growing rich-poor gap, as many students from middle class or poor families demanded that the courts severely punish the wealthy student who was driving the red sports car. Zhang Limin, an attorney at Grandall Legal Group, said that public reaction might not have been as strong if there had not previously been other car accidents in the city resulting from fast driving. Such repeated threats to public safety, Zhang said, cause the public to react angrily. Political Fallout from Economic Downturn? -------------- ¶6. (C) The three contacts uniformly expressed concern, however, about possible negative political impacts from the economic downturn, remarking that the current Central Government economic stimulus package will not meet the needs of Zhejiang's business community. Zhejiang, which is known to be a center of China's export-oriented private small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs),has not received sufficient help from the Central Government, Xu lamented. China's economic stimulus package as it is currently designed, Xu continued, will only free up credit for large companies (many of which are state-owned enterprises (SOEs)),while small private firms fend for themselves. As these companies have closed their factories throughout the province, there has been a corresponding increase of unemployed workers, which could further threaten social stability in the coming months (see also Ref D). SCHUCHAT