SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; June 3, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 SEOUL 000877 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; June 3, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo U.S. Experts: "Punitive Measures Should be Sought to Hurt N. Korea" JoongAng Ilbo ROK Deploys High-Speed Patrol Ship Equipped with Guided Missles along Western Sea Border Dong-a Ilbo Deputy USFK Commander Jeffrey Remington: "Global Hawk High-Altitude Unmanned Aerial Reconnaissance System Will Soon Be Deployed to USFK" Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo ¶N. Korea Preparing to Fire Three or Four Medium-Range Missiles Hankyoreh Shinmun USG Allegedly Protests ROKG's Press Remarks - that the Object (N. Korea Seems to be Preparing to Launch) is "Certainly an ICBM"- Arguing that ROKG "Over-interpreted Sensitive Intelligence" Seoul Shinmun ROKG to Introduce Laser-Guided "Bunker Busters" Next Year, which will Enable Military to Penetrate Deep into Fortified Bunkers or Underground Compounds DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- A U.S. delegation led by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg arrived in Seoul yesterday to discuss a response to North Korea's latest nuclear test. (All) Deputy Secretary Steinberg was quoted upon arrival that (the U.S.) wants "strong and unified" action against North Korea. (Chosun, JoongAng, Segye, Seoul, all TVs) The Deputy USFK Commander, Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Remington, said in a June 1 interview that USFK is fully ready to suppress and defeat acts of North Korean aggression. He also said that USFK will soon retire high-altitude U-2 reconnaissance planes in operation and deploy ultra-high altitude unmanned reconnaissance planes, or Global Hawks, to introduce high-tech weapons more extensively (to the peninsula). (Dong-a) According to a source knowledgeable about military affairs, the USG has lodged strong protest against the ROKG for disclosing to the media sensitive military intelligence regarding North Korea's apparent preparations to launch another long-range missile. There is also suspicion that, with this disclosure, the ROKG may have intended to divert public attention away from the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun. (Hankyoreh) According to ROK lawmakers, the National Intelligence Service told the National Assembly on June 1 that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il picked his third son, Jong-un, as his successor and that Pyongyang sent a diplomatic document to that effect to its overseas missions shortly after the North's second nuclear test on May 25. (Chosun, Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul) INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS -------------- According to military authorities, North Korea appears to be preparing to test-fire three or four medium-range missiles on its east coast. (All) SEOUL 00000877 002 OF 008 MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -North Korea -------------- - Deputy Secretary Steinberg's Visit Most ROK media gave play to yesterday's arrival in Seoul of a U.S. delegation led by Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg to discuss a response to North Korea's latest nuclear test. Conservative Chosun Ilbo, right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo, and moderate Seoul Shinmun quoted Deputy Secretary Steinberg's press remarks upon arrival: "(We) want strong and unified action against North Korea." JoongAng further quoted Deputy Secretary Steinberg as saying in response to a question whether the U.S. is considering single-handedly imposing financial sanctions on North Korea: "No, quite the contrary. The U.S. is working very closely with all our partners in the region." - Missile Activities All ROK media gave prominent play to ROK military authorities' June 2 report to the National Assembly on North Korea's apparent preparations to test-fire three or four medium-range missiles on its east coast. Most media noted that this North Korean move comes close on the heels of reports that North Korea has moved what appears to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) to its new "Dongchang-ri" launch site on the west coast. The media speculated that this might indicate Pyongyang's intention to fire both mid and long-range missiles simultaneously. A ruling Grand National Party (GNP) lawmaker was quoted by KBS TV: "The medium-range missiles are believed to be Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300 km. North Korea is highly likely to fire the ICBM from the Dongchang-ri site within the next few weeks." Referring to recent media reports that the ROKG told the media that the object (the North seems to be preparing to launch) "is certainly an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)" and that the object has arrived at the North's new "Dongchang-ri" base, left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun front-paged a report citing a source knowledgeable about military affairs that the USG has lodged a strong protest against the ROKG for disclosing to the media sensitive military intelligence regarding North Korea's apparent preparations to launch another long-range missile. The Hankyoreh report went on to say that there is suspicion that, with this disclosure, the ROKG may have intended to divert public attention away from the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun. - Power Succession Citing ROK lawmakers, most ROK media carried front- and inside-page reports that the National Intelligence Service (NIS) told the National Assembly on June 1 that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il picked his third son, Jong-un, as his successor and that Pyongyang sent a diplomatic document to that effect to its overseas missions shortly after the North's second nuclear test on May 25. Newspapers noted that there has been a lot of speculation about Kim Jong-un's succession but that it is the first time that ROK authorities have confirmed the North's leadership change. Conservative Chosun Ilbo headlined its inside-page article: "NIS Suddenly Becomes Kind... It Voluntarily Tells Lawmakers about Kim Jong-un's Succession" Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "Our problem lies in how to respond to this irrational regime. North Korea is, in the short term, very likely to stage provocations overseas to solidify its grip on power. ... For the medium term, the ROKG should review its North Korea policy. ... The ROKG should explore ways to come up with SEOUL 00000877 003 OF 008 a new policy with a right mix of pressure and inducements in order to rein in this unpredictable and irrational regime. In the long term, the ROKG should prepare for possible instability in North Korea which might follow or arise in the process of power transfer from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un." Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo, in an editorial entitled "Kim's Farcical Succession," argued: "The obsession with nuclear arms, missiles and other weapons of mass destruction is part of a malignant campaign to keep the Kim family in control. Our North Korean policy should take a completely new direction if the hereditary succession is confirmed. We can no longer consider North Korean leadership as a partner in seeking common prosperity and unification of the Korean Peninsula. Our engagement ... should strictly focus on aid (to North Korean people) and encouraging them to bring light and change to the reclusive state." Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "Kim Jong-un's nomination was made shortly after North Korea's rocket launch and its second nuclear test. These actions seemed intended to solidify Kim Jong-un's power base by giving him credit for the saber-rattling that threatens world peace. When Kim Jong-il was named heir apparent in 1974, the North had said that he took the lead in seizing the U.S. intelligence ship Pueblo in 1968 and shooting down a U.S. reconnaissance plane in 1969. Given this precedent, the communist country will do anything to fabricate achievements by Kim Jong-un. ... The power transfer will not be easy, however. Power struggles between Kim Jong-un and his two brothers could arise, and given the increasing number of North Korean defectors, North Koreans appear to oppose the hereditary power transfer. It is also unclear whether the ailing Kim Jong-ill can protect his son and help him take power without problems." OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- ¶N. KOREA'S HEREDITARY POWER SUCCESSION (Dong-a Ilbo, June 3, 2009, Page 31) North Korea is seeking a hereditary power transfer spanning three generations, from the country's founder, Kim Il-sung, to his son, Kim Jong-il, and now to Kim Jong-il's youngest son, Jong-un. Pyongyang last week notified its foreign missions of the unofficial nomination of Kim Jong-un as the heir apparent, and urged its people to call him "Captain Kim" and sing songs praising him. Beneath the veneer of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Kim family is set to pass down its wealth and power from generation to generation. The hereditary succession of power in North Korea is detrimental to both peace on the Korean Peninsula and the Stalinist country's future. Kim Il-sung triggered the Korean War in 1950, he and his son Kim Jong-il killed their southern brethren by orchestrating the 1987 bombing of a (South) Korean Air flight, (they) ordered an assassination attempt of former ROK President Park Chung-hee, and (also succeeded in arranging the killing a number of) high-ranking ROKG officials in Burma in 1983. Under Kim Jong-il, the North has twice instigated military provocations in the Yellow Sea, which resulted in the deaths and injuries of ROK sailors. The hereditary succession means the North will continue its belligerence and ambition to reunite the Koreas through communism. The North's recent behavior is similar to what happened when Kim Il-sung named Kim Jong-il his successor. Kim Jong-un's nomination was made shortly after North Korea's rocket launch and its second nuclear test. These actions seemed intended to solidify Kim Jong-un's power base by giving him credit for the saber-rattling that threatens world peace. When Kim Jong-il was named heir apparent in 1974, the North had said that he took the lead in seizing the U.S. intelligence ship Pueblo in 1968 and shooting down a U.S. reconnaissance plane in 1969. Given this precedent, the communist country will do anything to fabricate achievements by Kim Jong-un. The Kim family is the main source of adversity for the North Korean SEOUL 00000877 004 OF 008 people. The Kims have exploited the North's limited national resources to keep power and build up the military-all while letting the (North Korean) people starve to death and denying them freedom and human rights. How long can this authoritarian, hereditary government, which has kept 23 million people in poverty, last? The power transfer will not be easy, however. Power struggles between Kim Jong-un and his two brothers could arise, and given the increasing number of North Korean defectors, North Koreans appear to oppose the hereditary power transfer. It is also unclear whether the ailing Kim Jong-il can protect his son and help him take power without problems. Seoul, for its part, must prepare for potential provocations by Pyongyang that aim to support Kim Jong-un's succession. The ROK must prevent chaos in the North from spreading throughout the Korean Peninsula. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) KIM'S FARCICAL SUCCESSION (JoongAng Ilbo, June 3, 2009, Page 39) It appears that North Korea's leader Kim Jong-il is poised to hand over the reins of power to his twenty-something son. According to intelligence reports, the elder Kim has proclaimed the youngest of his three sons, Jong-un, to be the successor to the family dynasty and has been calling for ceremonious declarations of loyalty to the heir-in-waiting. Some analysts believe the North's recent saber-rattling-testing a nuclear device and firing off short-range missiles-has been a showpiece for Jong-un's succession campaign. If true, North Korea will inevitably become an international laughingstock. At no other point in history have we witnessed the farce of a hereditary power succession (in a communist nation). The possible power transfer only confirms that the North Korean regime has relinquished any hope of becoming a modern civilized state. North Koreans have no real rights since all the power is locked up within the Kim family dynasty. We saw this first when Kim Il-sung named his son Jong-il as his successor. And now Jong-il has named his son. North Koreans have long been accustomed and perfectly happy to call themselves "the people of Kim Il-sung" and beneficiaries of "Kim Il-sung Socialism." They have been manipulated, exploited and starved for more than half a decade, all in a bid to sustain the Kim legacy. Extending the North Korean family dynasty has only one impact on North Koreans. They will suffer more hardship and continue to remain shackled until the Kim family dynasty falls. The obsession with nuclear arms, missiles and other weapons of mass destruction is part of a malignant campaign to keep the Kim family in control. Our North Korean policy should take a completely new direction if the hereditary succession is confirmed. We can no longer consider North Korean leadership as a partner in seeking common prosperity and unification of the Korean Peninsula. Our engagement should be restricted to the North Korean people. We must offer them relief and comfort. An engagement policy should strictly focus on aid (to North Korean people) and encouraging them to bring light and change to the reclusive state. SEOUL 00000877 005 OF 008 We sincerely hope North Korea isn't serious about the power succession. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) MUST WE ENDURE A 3RD GENERATION OF THE KIM DYNASTY? (Chosun Ilbo, June 3, 2009, Page 39) North Korean leader Kim Jong-il appears to have appointed his third son, Jong-un, as his successor, the National Intelligence Service told the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on Monday. On Feb. 25, the NIS had reported to lawmakers that North Korea is likely to undertake a third hereditary transfer of power. To ensure a smooth transfer, North Korea has made various strategic arrangements. The communist country's state-run Rodong Shinmun in an editorial on Feb. 16 forecast the hereditary transfer of power, saying that there was a "bright future" for the continuation of the revolutionary "Juche" ideology within the continuation of the "Mt. Baekdu lineage," referring to the alleged birthplace of Kim Jong-il at the symbolic mountain. On Feb. 11, North Korea revamped its military leadership, voted new officials into the country's rubberstamp Supreme People's Assembly on March 8 and revised its Constitution on April 9, along with the launch of the third term of Kim Jong-il's rule. In conjunction with those developments, the North test-fired a long-range rocket on April 5 and conducted a second nuclear test on May 25. All of these actions are designed to boost loyalty among North Koreans ahead of the transfer of power. At the age of 32 in 1974, Kim Jong-il was appointed as a political commissioner in the Workers' Party, where he began strengthening his support base. After a 20-year apprenticeship there, he became the leader (of North Korea) in 1994 following the death of (his father), Kim Il-sung. Jong-un, who is 26, will assume the reins of power at a much earlier age than his father. Hereditary power transfers are remnants of feudal times. Communism is in principle an ideology that seeks to overthrow such remnants of feudalism, but the North Korean regime has been spewing slogans such as "continuing the revolutionary tradition" and "our form of socialism," insisting that the legitimacy of revolutionary ideology can only be established through this feudalistic pattern. Our problem lies in how to respond to this irrational regime. North Korea is, in the short term, very likely to stage provocations overseas to solidify its grip on power. For example, Kim Yong-chun, the vice marshal of the North Korean People's Army, was appointed as minister of the People's Armed Forces of the National Defense Commission in February. He is seen as a hawk who has led various provocations since the mid-1990s. The North Korean submarine infiltration in 1998 and the launch of the Taepodong 1 missile, the naval battles on the West Sea in 1999 and 2002, the launch of the Taepodong 2 missile in 2006, and the first nuclear test all took place under his tenure as military chief of staff. For the medium term, the ROKG should review its North Korea policy. It is becoming clearer and clearer that the Lee Myung-bak Administration's "denuclearization, opening, 3,000" plan, which encompasses a quid-pro-quo approach to North Korean aid and full support only if the North gives up its nuclear program and opens up, is flawed from its premise. The ROKG should explore ways to come up with a new policy with a right mix of pressure and inducements in order to rein in this unpredictable and irrational regime. In the long term, the ROKG should prepare for possible instability in North Korea which might follow or arise in the process of power transfer from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un. North Korea's future is bleak, but that bleakness could mean disaster for all Koreans. That SEOUL 00000877 006 OF 008 is why we have no choice but to put some serious thought into the problems facing the Kim dynasty. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) FACTORING IN N. KOREA'S HEREDITARY TRANSFER OF POWER (Hankyoreh Shinmun, June 3, 2009, Page 27) It is being confirmed that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il recently designated his third son, Kim Jong-un, as successor, appearing to indicate a hereditary transfer of power. If this is true, it would appear Kim Jong-il, who experienced health problems last August, realizes the urgency of developing a stable transfer of power and has stepped up to facilitate a process of succession. It is clear, even if one considers the particularity of the North Korean regime, that a hereditary power transfer spanning three generations is a backwards act rarely seen in today's world. Moreover, Kim Jong-un, age 26, has no clear base of experience. This is quite different from Kim Il-sung, who founded the nation, or Kim Jong-il, who was able to acquire decades of experience as the successor. Furthermore, the fact that Kim Jong-un has two older brothers also serves as a potential factor of instability. It is easy to predict that the course of transferring power will not be a smooth one. North Korea recently tested a long-range rocket and nuclear device despite concerted warnings from the international community, and is now preparing to launch a long-range missile. This exceptionally hardline and rigid display can largely be explained by the transfer of power issue. If the military leadership or central power in North Korea is able to demonstrate that it is running smoothly against what it considers to be external threats, it could be highly effective in inducing internal solidarity. Now is the time for wisdom from related countries, including the ROK. As a nation experiences more factors of instability, the more sensitively it reacts to an external stimulus. One should keep the door open to dialogue even if some level of sanctions are unavoidable in response to North Korea's nuclear test. In particular, arguments about North Korea's collapse, which are revived each time North Korea has internal difficulties, only worsens the situation by amplifying mistrust. The most regretful thing in managing this situation is that inter-Korean relations have hit rock bottom. Only if North Korea has the option to reach out to the ROK in tough times can the danger of unforeseen incidents be lessened and pending bilateral issues be resolved, but it cannot do that now. North Korea's transfer of power will not occur immediately, and we must build inter-Korean relations with this in mind. Both sides have things they must reflect on concerning the present situation, and a reconsideration of the ROK's North Korea policies is urgently needed. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) FEATURES -------------- USG LODGES STRONG PROTEST AGAINST ROKG FOR ITS EXAGGERATED INTERPRETATION OF SENSITIVE INTELLIGENCE (Hankyoreh Shinmun, June 3, 2009, Front Page) By Reporters Kwon Hyuk-chul and Lee Je-hoon The ROKG is also suspected of intentionally leaking the intelligence in order to distract public attention. SEOUL 00000877 007 OF 008 It was reported on June 2 that the USG has lodged strong protest against the ROKG in response to a key ROKG official telling the press, "(The object that North Korea is preparing to launch) is certainly an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICMB)." In this regard, there is criticism that the ROKG may have leaked the sensitive intelligence to the media in order to divert public attention away from the death of former President Roh Moo-hyun. A source knowledgeable about military affairs said on June 2, "The U.S. has protested against the ROKG for leaking to the media sensitive military intelligence about North Korea's long-range missile preparations through such statements as "(The object that North Korea is preparing to launch) is certainly an ICBM" or "(The object) has arrived at the missile site at Dongchang-ri." The source added, "(The USG) expressed grievance in opposition to the ROK's arbitrary interpretation of satellite photos provided by the U.S. and its leakage of them to the media." The source continued, "It is worrying that the Blue House seems to disregard the particularity of military intelligence on North Korea and engage in a media play so that it may shift attention away from former President Roh's death to the North Korean nuclear issue." He also worried, "If (the ROKG) continues to leak sensitive intelligence provided by the U.S. to the media, the U.S. may no longer offer key information about North Korea to the ROK." On June 1, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) unusually called the members of the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee and informed them, "North Korea has sent its diplomatic missions overseas the statement that Chairman Kim Jong-il has appointed his third son as successor." Observers point out that this unusual step may be "intended to turn the situation around." An opposition Democratic Party lawmaker, a member of the National Assembly's Intelligence Committee, said, "This was the first time the NIS provided us with important information prior to asking for it," adding, "I thought that it might be designed to distract public attention (from former President Roh's death.)" Also, on May 27, the U.S. reportedly complained about (quotes cited in) ROK media reports about specific intelligence matters, such as "The door to the storage facility housing Yongbyon's 5-megawatt spent fuel rods has been seen open several times since mid-April." Kim Yeon-chul, head of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute, said, "The reason why the Blue House is providing the media with information on North Korea so readily is to emphasize that the recent crisis is attributable to internal factors in the North," adding, "If (the ROKG) blames North Korea for everything, there will be no room for diplomacy, nor will there be a way to hold the ROKG accountable for its policy errors and failures." STEINBERG: "THE U.S. IS WORKING VERY CLOSELY WITH ALL OUR PARTNERS IN THE REGION" (JoongAng Ilbo, June 3, 2009, Page 3) By Correspondent Kim Dong-ho, Reporter Chae Byung-geon U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said on June 2 that the U.S. wants the international community to take "strong and unified action" against North Korea, in the wake of its nuclear test. At a press meeting held upon his arrival at Gimpo Airport in Seoul yesterday, Steinberg said that "the only effective way to convince North Korea to take a different approach is to work collaboratively both in the UN Security Council and here in the region." Asked whether the U.S. is considering single-handedly imposing financial sanctions on North Korea, he said, "No, quite the contrary. The U.S. is working very closely with all our partners in the region." The U.S. delegation led by Deputy Secretary Steinberg will pay a courtesy visit to Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan on June 3 and will also join him for lunch. The Deputy Secretary will then meet with Vice Foreign Minister Kwon Jong-rak and Senior Presidential SEOUL 00000877 008 OF 008 Secretary for Diplomacy and National Security Kim Sung-hwan to discuss countermeasures against North Korea's nuclear test and ways the U.S. and the ROK can cooperate. Steinberg will also make a courtesy call on President Lee Myung-bak on June 3 and will meet with Unification Minister Hyun In-taek and Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee on June 4. The U.S. delegation will depart for China on June 5 after its visit to the ROK. The group canceled its originally planned visit to Russia due to (a conflict in) schedules. For the moment, it is expected that the process of the Six-Party Talks aimed at resolving the North Korean nuclear issue will be changed considerably. This stems from the understanding that the Six-Party Talks, which began in 2003, have not addressed the North Korean nuclear issue effectively. According to the Jiji press' June 2 report, during working-level consultations held in Tokyo on June 1, Deputy Secretary Steinberg and Japanese Foreign Affairs Ministry Director-General Mitoji Yabunaka shared the view that there is a need to review and revise the process of negotiation and the past agreements while keeping the Six-Party Talks in place in order to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. During a June 2 meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso before leaving for the ROK, he reaffirmed that there is a need to change the process of the Six-Party Talks and that (the U.S.) will not tolerate North Korea's nuclearization. The Japanese Yomiuri Shimbun reported that the U.S. delegation will come up with joint countermeasures from the ROK, the U.S. and Japan. In a telephone conversation with Japanese Foreign Minister Hirofumi Nakasone on June 2, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said that a new resolution by the UN Security Council or its sanctions alone would not resolve the North Korean issue. In a press release issued by the Japanese Foreign Ministry, China was cited as saying that (the international community) needs to lure North Korea back into the negotiating table while at the same time placing additional pressure on North Korea. STEPHENS