SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; May 29, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 SEOUL 000854 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; May 29, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo, Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun, All TVs Alert Level against N. Korea Raised; Five-level "Watchcon" Upgraded to Level 2 from Level 3 JoongAng Ilbo "Hoping We Become One in Bidding Farewell to Former President Roh Without Taking Sides"... National Funeral for Roh Due Today Dong-a Ilbo Former President Roh to be Laid to Permanent Rest Today Hankyoreh Shinmun Leaving Dreams of a "World Where People Live (in Harmony)" Behind... Former President Roh's Funeral Due Today DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) raised its surveillance status on North Korea (the five-level Watch Condition, or Watchcon) by a notch to the second highest level yesterday, in expectation of more provocations from North Korea following its nuclear test on May ¶25. It was the first time since the North's first nuclear test in 2006 that the CFC upgraded the Watchcon status to level 2. (All) ROK Defense Ministry Spokesman Won Tae-jae said in a press briefing yesterday that increased Watchcon status means boosting "aerial and other reconnaissance assets, intelligence-gathering assets, and analyzing personnel." (All) Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday visited a makeshift mourning alter at the ROK Embassy in Washington to pay respects to former President Roh Moo-hyun. (All) She was quoted as saying: "I am honored to be here on behalf of President Obama and the American people to offer our condolences not only to the family but to the people of Korea. President Roh's dedication to democracy and human rights are two values that the U.S. and the Republic of Korea share. We are grateful for his life and his leadership." (Chosun, Hankyoreh) The U.S. Ambassador to the ROK, Kathleen Stephens, will head the U.S. delegation for today's funeral service for former President Roh. The U.S. delegation includes USFK Gen. Water Sharp; Michael Green, former National Security Council Director for Asian Affairs; and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Alexander Arvizu, among others. (Chosun, JoongAng, Hankook, Hankyoreh, Segye, all TVs) INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS -------------- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in a May 27 press conference, warned that North Korea would face "consequences" for its "provocative and belligerent threats," arguing that the North has "chosen to violate the UN Security Council resolution, ignore the international community and abrogate the obligations it entered into through the Six-Party Talks." (Chosun, JoongAng, Hankook, Segye, Seoul, all TVs) White House National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones, in a May 27 speech in Washington, said that North Korea still has a long way to go to weaponize its nuclear material and work on the delivery of its nuclear missiles, adding: "North Korea's greatest threat comes from spreading its nuclear technology to other countries and potentially to terror organizations and non-state actors." (Dong-a) SEOUL 00000854 002 OF 005 MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -North Korea -------------- Most ROK media gave prominent play to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's May 27 press remarks, in which she said that North Korea would face "consequences" for its "provocative and belligerent threats." She was widely quoted: "North Korea has chosen to violate the UN Security Council resolution, ignore the international community and abrogate the obligations it entered into through the Six-Party Talks. There are consequences to such actions." White House National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones's remarks during his May 27 speech in Washington also received press coverage. He was quoted as saying: "North Korea still has a long way to go to weaponize its nuclear material and work on the delivery of its nuclear missiles. North Korea's greatest threat comes from spreading its nuclear technology to other countries and potentially to terror organizations and non-state actors." The ROK media gave front-page play to a report saying that the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) upgraded its surveillance level on North Korea (the five-level Watch Condition, or Watchcon) to the second highest level yesterday, in expectation of more provocations from North Korea following its nuclear test on May 25. It was the first time since the North's first nuclear test in 2006 that the CFC upgraded the Watchcon status to level 2, according to media reports. Conservative Chosun Ilbo's front-page report said that there are no immediate signs of impending provocations but that ROK military authorities are on alert, since they believe that North Korea will carry out provocations along the Northern Limit Line, the de facto maritime border in the Yellow Sea, the Joint Security Area in the truce village of Panmunjeom, or along the demilitarized zone. Referring to growing calls in ROK political circles to restore the nation's "nuclear sovereignty" in the aftermath of the North's second nuclear test, conservative Chosun Ilbo speculated that Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Barack Obama are not likely to discuss the issue during their summit in June, because Washington's position is that Seoul's claim of nuclear sovereignty following the North's nuclear test may trigger a nuclear arms race in Northeast Asia. Conservative Dong-a Ilbo, on the other hand, commented that the two leaders are likely to discuss whether to continue the Six-Party Talks aimed at ridding North Korea of nuclear weapons. In an editorial, Conservative Chosun Ilbo observed that if the U.S. wants to succeed in resolving the North Korean nuclear problem, the following elements must be considered when establishing a blueprint on how to resolve the issue: First, the USG must formulate a clear list of rewards North Korea would receive if it complies with the wishes of the international community as well as a list of punitive measures it would face if it does not. ... Second, international cooperation must be strengthened so that China, Russia, Japan, the ROK and other countries can participate in such rewards and punitive measures. ... Third, a solution must be devised that would continue beyond the terms of the current presidents of the U.S. and the ROK. Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo's editorial argued: "It is common sense that nuclear weapons can be countered only by nuclear weapons. The only thing we can rely on to counter North Korea's nuclear weapons is the U.S. nuclear umbrella. However ... the U.S. already withdrew all USFK nuclear weapons in order to support the Joint (Inter-Korean) Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in 1991. The declaration has ended up undermining the credibility of the U.S. promise to offer nuclear umbrella.... (This newspaper) does not intend to argue that we should restore our nuclear sovereignty... However, we need to address the current unbalanced and irrational situation in which (the North) continuously takes advantage of the ROK, which faithfully adheres to the denuclearization declaration." SEOUL 00000854 003 OF 005 -Former President Roh Moo-hyun -------------- All media covered Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit yesterday to the ROK Embassy in Washington, D.C. to pay respects to former President Roh Moo-hyun. OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- NEW BLUEPRINT IS NEEDED FOR DEALING WITH N. KOREA (Chosun Ilbo, May 29, 2009, Page 27) U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Wednesday strongly criticized North Korea, saying the communist country continued to behave in a provocative and belligerent manner toward its neighboring countries, and warned that such behavior would lead to consequences, reminding Pyongyang of the sanctions the United Nations Security Council is discussing. Clinton said the intention of the U.S. government was to get North Korea to live up to its responsibilities and return to a framework of denuclearization. In that case, Clinton said, North Korea would be rewarded. U.S. President Barack Obama and Clinton hope to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program through dialogue and negotiations. North Korea has flagrantly challenged Obama's grand plan to create "a world without nuclear weapons" by conducting its second nuclear test. Unless North Korea's nuclear weapons program is halted, Obama's plans to eradicate nuclear weapons will end up becoming an empty promise. However, the Obama Administration has yet to produce a blueprint detailing its plans on how to resolve the North Korean nuclear dilemma. That dilemma, which first surfaced when North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1993, was unable to be resolved during eight years under the Clinton Administration and another eight under the Bush Administration. If the U.S. government wants to succeed in resolving the North Korean nuclear problem, a few elements must be reflected upon when establishing the blueprint. First, the USG must formulate a clear list of rewards North Korea would receive if it complies with the wishes of the international community as well as a list of punitive measures it would face if it does not. During the Six-Party Talks and other dialogues with North Korea, a variety of rewards have been offered, including normalized diplomatic relations with the United States and economic support. However, the consequences North Korea would face should it refuse to abandon its nuclear weapons program have rarely been discussed. Second, international cooperation must be strengthened so that China, Russia, Japan, the ROK and other countries can participate in such rewards and punitive measures. The U.S. government must focus its diplomatic efforts on ensuring that China and Russia do not sit on the sidelines if punitive measures must be imposed on North Korea. This cooperative relationship could develop into a useful network, not only in resolving the North Korean nuclear problem, but also in helping to promote security on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia. Third, a solution must be devised that would continue beyond the terms of the current presidents of the U.S. and the ROK. Over the last 16 years, the government of the United States has changed from a democratic administration to a republican administration and back again (to a democratic one.) In South Korea, five years of conservative leadership was followed by a decade of liberal rule before returning to a conservative government. This has affected the South Korea-U.S. alliance and necessitates the creation of a new blueprint for dealing with North Korea. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) SEOUL 00000854 004 OF 005 UNREASONABLENESS IN HARDLINE RESPONSES TO N. KOREA (Hankyoreh Shinmun, May 29, 2009, Page 38) Military tensions between the two Koreas are higher than ever following North Korea's second nuclear test. In this situation, irresponsible arguments have been pouring forth for taking a hard line against North Korea. Even government authorities that should be working towards stable management of the crisis have been contributing to the problem, generating further uneasiness. The most dangerous of these arguments is the one promoting South Korea nuclear armament with the logic of "stopping nukes with nukes." A few days ago, Liberty Forward Party lawmaker Park Sun-young openly raised the need for nuclear capabilities for self-defense purposes. One wonders if she said this having considered the catastrophic effects an arms race on the Korean Peninsula would bring. On Monday, the day of the nuclear test, South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Sang-Hee raised a flap by talking about "responding to nuclear weapons with nuclear weapons" in a meeting of the National Assembly's National Defense Committee. And in a meeting of the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Committee yesterday, Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan said he thought, "We need to seriously discuss the issue of our (nuclear) sovereignty too." Lee appears to have had the U.S. nuclear umbrella in mind with his statement, while Yu seems to have been thinking about nuclear sovereignty in terms of pursuing uranium enrichment for peaceful nuclear energy purposes. Even so, they were unmeasured words in light of the fact that they could easily be used to justify and encourage arguments for nuclear armament. Additionally, the Grand National Party is citing an increase in nuclear threat from North Korea as a reason to call for a postponement of the transfer of wartime operational command to South Korea, which is scheduled for 2012. The logic behind this is that it will be difficult to receive the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella if the U.S. is not holding wartime operational command. This is an unreasonable argument. The U.S. has been confirming that it will provide the nuclear umbrella at annual South Korea-U.S. Security Consultative Meetings since 1978, and U.S. President Barack Obama made a firm promise to this effect in a recent phone conversation with President Lee Myung-bak. The issue of taking over wartime operational command is one that should first and foremost be approached in terms of military autonomy, a question of who is in command of one's own nation's army, and has nothing whatsoever to do with a nuclear umbrella. Meanwhile, outside of South Korea, Japanese conservatives are plotting ways to turn Japan into a military power, making claims for the need to possess "enemy base attack capabilities" that would allow Japan to carry out preemptive strikes on North Korean missile bases. It is right to criticize North Korea's provocation, but these hardline arguments focusing solely on generating hostility against North Korea only make the situation worse. We urge the South Korean government in particular to act prudently. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) KOREAN PENINSULA DENUCLEARIZATION DECLARATION; ISN'T ROK A PUSHOVER? (JoongAng Ilbo, May 29, 2009, Page 38) In the wake of North Korea's nuclear test, some people in the ROK argue that the ROK should restore the nuclear sovereignty it abandoned in the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Their arguments vary from openly pursuing nuclearization to "completing a nuclear cycle" including uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing. Whatever the details, their arguments are based on the idea that there is no reason for only the ROK to abide by the denuclearization declaration which has been, in SEOUL 00000854 005 OF 005 fact, ruined due to North Korea's nuclear test. We don't think there is an urgent need to push for nuclear armament or "nuclear cycle completion." However, we should not ignore this situation where North Korea misuses the denuclearization declaration arbitrarily. Since the situation has changed due to North Korea's nuclear test, we should at least review the denuclearization declaration. The Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula was agreed and enforced by North Korea and the ROK, which calls for eliminating the risk of nuclear war through denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, establishing peace, creating an atmosphere for peaceful reunification and contributing to world peace and security. The gist of the Declaration is that North Korea and the ROK should not test, manufacture, produce, receive, possess, store, deploy or use nuclear weapons, and not possess facilities for nuclear reprocessing or uranium enrichment, and they would carry out reciprocal inspection. However, the purpose and content of the denuclearization declaration were thoroughly destroyed by North Korea. During the 17 years from the enforcement of the Declaration up to now North Korea has blatantly developed its nuclear program. In the end, North Korea went so far as to impudently claim itself as a nuclear power through two nuclear tests. Experts are divided on whether to consider North Korea a "nuclear power" after its second nuclear test. However, they agree that North Korea would be able to deploy nuclear weapons in actual warfare within no later than 3-4 years. (This means that) a "fatal security crisis" would turn into a reality within 3-4 years. (We are) facing a desperate situation in which we cannot sit around on our hands. It is common sense that nuclear weapons can be countered only by nuclear weapons. The only thing we can rely on to counter North Korea's nuclear weapons is the U.S. nuclear umbrella. However, many South Koreans doubt whether the U.S. nuclear umbrella will protect us at any time. In fact, the U.S. already withdrew all USFK nuclear weapons in order to support the Joint (Inter-Korean) Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula in 1991. The declaration has ended up undermining the credibility of the U.S. promise to offer nuclear umbrella. In February, the North said in its statement issued by the Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is aimed at eliminating the U.S. nuclear threat to the North and that the nuclear-armed parties (the U.S. and North Korea) have no choice but to reduce their nuclear arms at the same time. In the end, the North has consistently used the denuclearization declaration to justify its nuclear armament and it will clearly continue to do so. (This newspaper) does not intend to argue that we should restore our nuclear sovereignty so as to become nuclear-armed or complete our nuclear cycle. However, we need to address the current unbalanced and irrational situation in which (the North) continuously takes advantage of the ROK, which faithfully adheres to the denuclearization declaration. STEPHENS