SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; May 18, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 SEOUL 000791 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; May 18, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo Bamboo Sticks Appear during Weekend Demonstration by 6,000 Cargo Truck Drivers for First Time in Over Three Years; 104 Police Officers Injured Dong-a Ilbo Truth and Reconciliation Commission Attempts to Extend Operation by Establishing a Foundation Hankook Ilbo Experts Give Above-Average Grade to Economic Team Led by Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun, but Regret the Team's Lack of Economic Vision Hankyoreh Shinmun Controversy over Supreme Court's "Telephone Intervention:" Supreme Court Justices Called Junior Judges to Deliver Opinions on Trial Interference Allegations Involving Justice Shin Ahead of Junior Judges' Meeting Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun, All TVs Cargo Truckers Threaten Mass Walkout, Raising Fears of Logistical Paralysis DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- According to a source in Beijing privy to North Korean affairs, North Korea recently ordered its organizations dealing with the ROK to proactively instigate a split in ROK society over whether to accept the June 15 and Oct. 4 Inter-Korean Declarations. (Chosun) The Chinese Ambassador to the ROK, in a May 14 interview, said that the process of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula has run into difficulties but that relevant countries should make concerted efforts to keep the Six-Party Talks alive from a long-term perspective. (Chosun) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- According to diplomatic sources in Washington, the Obama Administration views North Korea's latest cancellation of all contracts and regulations on the Kaesong Industrial Complex as part of its tactic to rev up tensions in order to strengthen the Kim Jong-il regime and its succession process. (Chosun) A diplomatic source in Washington feared that North Korea might shut down the joint industrial complex and conduct a second nuclear test, because the North's recent moves have little relevance to Washington and Seoul's North Korea policy and the North seems to have set its own internal goal and to be moving in line with that goal. (Chosun) An ROKG official said yesterday that U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth will only visit Pyongyang to seek ways to revive the stalled Six-Party Talks after the release of the two U.S. journalists who are detained there. (Yonhap) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -North Korea -------------- Contract Cancellation North Korea's May 15 cancellation of all contracts and regulations on the Kaesong Industrial Complex received wide coverage today and SEOUL 00000791 002 OF 005 over the weekend. Citing diplomatic sources in Washington, conservative Chosun Ilbo reported today that the Obama Administration views the North Korean cancellation as part of its tactic to rev up tensions in order to strengthen the Kim Jong-il regime and its succession process. Chosun quoted a diplomatic source in Washington: "North Korea's recent moves have little relevance to Washington and Seoul's North Korea policy. Since the North seems to have set a certain goal and to be moving in line with that goal, there is a high possibility that North Korea might shut down the joint industrial complex and conduct a second nuclear test." Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo editorialized on Saturday (May 16): "North Korea is testing Seoul's patience concerning the Kaesong Industrial Complex. ... If North Korea truly intends to go its own way, despite our continuous persuasion and efforts, we have no choice but to close the joint industrial complex. However, the North must not lose sight of the fact that it is solely responsible for all the ensuing losses for ROK companies and North Korean workers and for the collapse of inter-Korean relations." U.S. Journalists Detained in the North Most ROK media on Saturday (May 16) quoted Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's statement at the State Department on May 14: "Actually, the trial date being set (by North Korea,) we view as a welcome timeframe. We believe that the charges are baseless and should not have been brought and these two young women should be released immediately." Yonhap News Agency, meanwhile, gave play to an ROKG official's May 17 statement that U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth will visit Pyongyang to seek ways to revive the stalled Six-Party Talks only after the release of the two U.S. journalists who are detained there. Six-Party Talks Conservative Chosun Ilbo carried a quote from the Chinese Ambassador to the ROK, who said in a May 14 interview: "The process of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula has run into difficulties. However, relevant countries should make concerted efforts to keep the Six-Party Talks alive from a long-term perspective." Conservative Dong-a Ilbo's Washington correspondent noted today that May 20 marks U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth's first three months since he assumed the post. The Dong-a Ilbo correspondent wrote: "One of the reasons why people take a dim view of Special Representative Bosworth is that he is a 'part-timer.' ... His predecessor, Christopher Hill, current U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, focused all his efforts on the North Korean nuclear issue over the four years after being appointed as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Chief U.S. Negotiator to the Six-Party Talks in February, 2005. However, he did not achieve significant results. Observers doubt whether Bosworth can placate Pyongyang and achieve the ultimate goal of denuclearizing North Korea while spending only one or two days every couple of weeks in Washington. ... Part-timers are not necessarily bound to fail. However, Jay Lefkowitz, a part-time Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights under the previous administration, was succeeded by a full-time ambassador. State Department officials explain that that was a reflection of the inability of part-timers to carry out their duties. " OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- "IMMEDIATE RELEASE OF AUNG SAN SUU KYI" (Hankyoreh Shinmun, May 18, 2009, Page 23) "Behind the military government's desire to keep Suu Kyi imprisoned is the general election that is scheduled to take place next year. In 1990, the National League for Democracy, led by Suu Kyi, won an overwhelming victory in the parliamentary election. The military government, however, overturned the results and seized power, and SEOUL 00000791 003 OF 005 ever since has mobilized every means within its power, including the imprisonment of Suu Kyi, to nip any nascent democratization efforts in the bud. However, in the face of increasing pressure from within and outside the country, including protests led by Buddhist monks two years ago, the military government was obliged to make a promise to hold elections in 2010. For the military leadership, who needs to ensure their legitimacy through an election, Suu Kyi, who is to be freed soon, could be their biggest obstacle. There is no guarantee, however, that next year's election will not be a repeat of the nightmare from 20 years ago. ... If Burma's military government wants real legitimacy, it needs to hand over power to the people and accept their democratically made choice. The first step toward that end would be to call a halt to their farce of a trial against Suu Kyi and to release her from house arrest." LIMITATIONS OF "PART-TIMER" BOSWORTH (Dong-a Ilbo, May 18, 2009, Page 31) By Washington Correspondent Ha Tae-won May 20 marks the third month since Stephen Bosworth took office as the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy. Over the past 90 days, he followed a busy schedule. In early March, right after assuming the post, he made a tour of the ROK, China, Japan and Russia, and from May 7 to 12, he visited the three Six-Party nations, except Russia, once again. It is noteworthy that he has been largely in a "listening mode" in order to broaden the consensus (among the Six-Party nations) on North Korea policy. However, observers do not seem to have a favorable view of him. Although it was not his fault, he failed to prevent North Korea from launching a long-range rocket, and Pyongyang is now threatening to conduct a second nuclear test. He is failing to find a breakthrough to resume the Six-Party Talks, which have been deadlocked since last December. North Korea is even publicly saying, "The Six-Party Talks are dead." One of the reasons why people take a dim view of Special Representative Bosworth is that he is a "part-timer." He doubles as the Dean of The Fletcher School at Tufts University, a position he assumed in February 2001. His predecessor, Christopher Hill, current U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, focused all his efforts on the North Korean nuclear issue over the four years after being appointed as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs and U.S. Chief Negotiator to the Six-Party Talks in February, 2005. However, he did not achieve significant results. Observers doubt whether Bosworth can placate Pyongyang and achieve the ultimate goal of denuclearizing North Korea while spending only one or two days every couple of weeks in Washington. Some people say that (it would be difficult for him) to give up his secure job at the university in order to deal with the North Korean issue, which is difficult to resolve in the short term. However, Middle East Envoy George Mitchell and Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke are serving full-time. Bosworth's words and actions at critical moments are also unsettling. On his way home from his second trip to Asia, he said in Tokyo on May 12, "(A visit to North Korea) is something we will be considering over the next few weeks." This is not a good message since it could give North Korea the wrong impression. Bosworth's meeting with former ROK President Kim Dae-jung also caused a stir. A diplomatic source pointed out, "If Bosworth visited former President Kim in order to tell him, 'I support dialogue. I advocate the Sunshine Policy,' his actions are in line with North Korea's strategy of driving a wedge between the ROK and the U.S." Bosworth told a reporter in an interview, "Most of diplomacy is rewarding bad behavior. You are trying to figure out how you can stop the worst of the behavior at the lowest possible price." His appointment may have been made in the hope that he will exercise diplomacy through dialogue to persuade North Korea to behave. SEOUL 00000791 004 OF 005 However, what lies beneath the "Smart Diplomacy" of President Obama and Secretary of State Clinton is their intention not to follow in the footsteps of the previous administration, which eased crises by rushing to present "carrot" (reward) measures whenever the North made a provocation. Some observers say that when the Senate approves the appointment of Kurt Campbell as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, it will undermine the role of Special Representative Bosworth. They think that Bosworth is not doing a good job in reading the mind of the Obama Administration. Part-timers are not necessarily bound to fail. However, Jay Lefkowitz, a part-time Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights under the previous administration, was succeeded by a full-time ambassador. State Department officials explain that that was a reflection of the inability of part-timers to carry out their duties. U.S.-ROK SUMMIT AND AFGHANISTAN (Chosun Ilbo, May 16, Page 30) By Ha Young-sun, International Politics Professor at Seoul National University The U.S.-ROK summit is just a month away. The summit is significant in that it will set a basic direction for U.S-ROK relations in the 2010's. Unless the ROK is properly prepared, it may face unexpected difficulty. Main items on the agenda between both countries include aid to Afghanistan, the North Korean nuclear and missile issue, the global economic crisis, and the (Korea-U.S.) Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The most urgent issue for the U.S., and the most difficult for the ROK, is the issue of aid to Afghanistan, which will emerge as a symbol of the (strength of the) strategic alliance in the 21st century. Last Wednesday morning, at the White House, President Obama met separately with Afghanistan's President Karzai and Pakistani President Zardari. Then, in the afternoon, he held a summit involving all three countries. Afghanistan, with a national income per capita of 400 dollars, and Pakistan, with a national income per capita of 1,000 dollars, ranks 7th and 9th, respectively, out of 177 countries in a list of failing countries released by a U.S. journal on diplomatic policy. The U.S. has earmarked 130 billion dollars for Iraq and Afghanistan in its military budget for next year. Despite the worst economic crisis in 80 years, the U.S. intends to spend more than 10 billion dollars a month. Taliban forces, closely related to Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaida terrorist organization which masterminded the September 11 terrorist attack, have restored the political clout which they lost in 2001, and are posing a threat to Pakistan. The new Obama Administration must grapple with the tasks of dealing with the "war on terrorism" and overcoming the economic crisis both at the same time. The Obama Administration is focusing on a comprehensive approach rather than a military option that has yielded no results. His (new) approach will begin with measures relating to economic aid. Early last month, President Obama attended a meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which marked its 60th anniversary, just after attending the G20 summit aimed at addressing the global economic downturn. Membership in NATO, created 60 years ago to target (threats from) the former Soviet Union, has steadily increased even in the wake of the 1990 demise of the Soviet Union. NATO has dedicated the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF),consisting of 56,000 from 41 countries including the U.S., England, Germany and Canada, to Afghanistan. President Obama joined in issuing the summit declaration on Afghanistan that calls for the military alliance to continue to play an active role in the military, peace-keeping, training and economic sectors and to help Afghanistan build a better future. SEOUL 00000791 005 OF 005 President Obama desperately hopes to see East Asian countries provide support to Afghanistan. Therefore, the U.S. is expected to focus the U.S.-ROK summit on aid to Afghanistan. The U.S. will likely praise the ROK for having grown as "global Korea" in a short time. Then the U.S. will expect global Korea to do what it can for Afghanistan. The ROK which after only half a century, is listed in 15th place as a successful country, rather than a failing country, should play a global and regional role according to its standing. However, what should be noted is that the U.S. and NATO nations are trying to share a new role amid a structural change of the world order. Also, the ROK should review its global role realistically. The ROK should consider that inter-Korean relations remain unchanged and democracy has not yet taken hold. The Korean Peninsula has been as militarily unstable as Afghanistan, as evidenced by North Korean nuclear and missile developments. ROK military or U.S. forces stationed in the ROK, in fact, serve as international security forces. Hasty moves (to send troops to Afghanistan) may invite danger to our own military power. Moreover, Korea has been on its own journey of democratization for only over half a century, while the West has been undergoing a process of democracy for over 500 years. Therefore, due to the weak base of political power (in Korea),"candle democracy" can be easily ignited and can flare up into "torch democracy." (Ed. Note: This refers to the "candlelight vigils" held in Korea as a means of political protest.) The key to the success of the U.S.-ROK summit is whether the two leaders fully understand the difficulties each other faces and can start discussions by putting themselves in the other's shoes. The ROKG has recently decided to expand its financial aid to Afghanistan from 30 million dollars to 74.1 million through 2011 and to increase the number of Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) personnel. In particular, the ultimate solution of the Afghanistan issue depends on the success of the PRT. Thus, if it is realistically difficult to deploy ground troops to Afghanistan due to specific (internal political) conditions in the ROK, the ROKG might carefully discuss expanding the PRT by closely cooperating with the U.S. STANTON