PRESIDENT LEE'S POPULARITY FLUCTUATES;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000790 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2019 TAGS: KS KN PGOV PREL SUBJECT: PRESIDENT LEE'S POPULARITY FLUCTUATES; RECONCILIATION WITH PARK GEUN-HYE DIFFICULT REF: SEOUL 00693 Classified By: POL Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The April 29 by-elections, in which the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) failed to win any of the five seats up for grabs (reftel),only served to put further strain on factional divides within the party. The elections were actually a test of the fractures within both the ruling and opposition parties, however, the perception in the general public has been that the election served as a referendum on the performance of the ruling party and of President Lee Myung-bak. In early April, Lee's support ratings climbed as high as 40 percent in some polls -- a personal best for this president -- but fell as low as 25 percent the day after the election. In response to the GNP's electoral defeat, President Lee announced he would back a supporter of Park Geun-hye, his primary rival for power within the party, for a party leadership post, but Park quickly rebuffed his overture. These factional divides have yet to create a significant obstacle to the President's legislative agenda -- the opposition Democratic Party (DP) has instead played that role -- but fissures within the GNP are only getting worse and will continue to distract GNP lawmakers as the June session approaches. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- President Lee Myung-bak's Support Rises, Then Falls -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) President Lee Myung-bak has struggled with low approval ratings since he took office in February 2008. In the last seven months, his support rate has consistently hovered in the 30 percent-range, and most analysts predict it is unlikely to go much higher. The President did, however, experience a temporary bump in early April when he got as high as a 40 percent approval rating in some polls (Poly News and Mono Research, April 2). Sogang University Political Science Professor Lee Hyeon-woo attributed this increase to the tendency to rally behind the President in times of crisis -- both the economic crisis and the North Korean missile test. In a Realmeter poll on May 1, one day after the by-elections in which the GNP failed to win any of the five seats up for election, Lee's popularity fell to 25 percent, down 7.6 percentage points from Realmeter's April 16 poll. ¶3. (C) Although his numbers have rebounded somewhat since 
then, Lee still has reason to be concerned. Professor Kim Hyung-joon from Myungji University told POLOFF that the President's support is weakening among core supporters -- white-collar working men in their 40's. Furthermore, in polls taken after the by-election, a whopping 57.4 percent of respondents in the GNP stronghold of Youngnam region did not support Lee, ranking second in disapproval ratings only to the liberal bastion of Honam (74.0 percent). Kim noted that Lee's bump in approval ratings in early April was the result of support from respondents loyal to his conservative rival Park Geun-hye. It was this phenomenon, Kim claimed, that prompted Lee to reach out to Park when his poll numbers dropped after the by-election. -------------- Park Rejects Lee's Offer -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On May 7 President Lee and GNP Chair Park Hee-tae met to discuss the party's by-election failure. The two publicly attributed the GNP's loss to a persistent factional divide within the party between the President's supporters and those of Representative Park Geun-hye. In the first gesture to heal this rift since Lee narrowly defeated Park in the party's presidential primary race nearly two years ago, the President and Park Hee-tae announced their support for floor leader candidate Kim Moo-sung, a long-time Park Geun-hye supporter, in the intra-party election scheduled to take place on May 21. Representative Park, who was traveling in the U.S. at the time, had apparently not been consulted in advance and immediately condemned the Blue House's announcement. Kim Moo-sung dutifully withdrew his candidacy. ¶5. (C) Embassy contacts have observed that there is little incentive for Park to enter into a party leadership position -- even through a proxy -- so far in advance of the presidential election in 2012. By taking a formal role in the party, Park would also take responsibility for the party's failures. Instead, our contacts speculate, she will wait until closer to the elections to step in and "save" the party. Professor Kim Hyung-joon predicted that Park would wait until next year to step in so that she could control the party's nomination process for the 2010 local elections. (NOTE: The GNP winners of the local elections will play a large role in deciding the party's next presidential candidate.) Soongshil University Professor Kang Won-taek thought Park would wait until after the local elections, which he anticipated would be a major defeat for the GNP, so that she could take over and revive the party. ¶6. (C) In further explaining Park's refusal to support Kim Moo-sung, contacts have noted that Park Geun-hye would not have selected Kim from among her supporters to be floor leader. Several interlocutors have independently reported that the relationship between Park and Kim was somewhat strained by Park's failure to support Kim's nomination as the GNP candidate in the April 2008 National Assembly elections. Furthermore, Professor Kim Hyung-joo claimed Kim Moo-sung enjoys a good relationship with President Lee's brother, Representative Lee Sang-deuk. -------------- Factional Divide(s) Persists -------------- ¶7. (C) By all accounts the factional divide within the GNP is only getting worse, and President Lee's offer to Park is seen as too little, too late. Commenting on the latest episode of the Lee-Park feud, GNP National Assemblyman Gu Sang-chan told POLOFF that the animosity between Lee and Park was so deep that a reconciliation was not possible. Park was deeply mistrustful of President Lee, seeing tricks and machinations in every proposal. In offering to support Kim Moo-sung's floor leader candidacy, Park thought the President was trying to sow discontent among Park's key followers. At this rate, Gu said, the GNP could split heading into the local elections next year. Other National Assembly interlocutors described the internal conflicts as very serious. By some accounts there are not just two factions, but five -- pro-Lee Myung-bak, pro-Park Geun-hye, pro-Lee Jae-o, neutral, and reformist. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) So far the factional divides are personality- and not policy-based and therefore have not significantly impeded the President's legislative agenda. Even Representative Lee Sang-deuk, President Lee's brother, told poloffs that Park Geun-hye had towed the party line. Nevertheless, Park's public support for some of Lee Myung-bak's more controversial policies could help solidify party and public opinion, especially on controversial legislation. Despite her unwillingness to shoulder formal party responsibility at this early date, Park's long-term commitment to the GNP makes it unlikely she would support a formal split absent some sort of clear, unconscionable provocation from the President's camp. STANTON