SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; May 7, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SEOUL 000720 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; May 7, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo National Intelligence Service Chief Asked Prosecution Not to Arrest Former President Roh, Drawing Protests from Prosecutors JoongAng Ilbo Is the ROK Economy Out of the Woods? Department Stores Overflow with Shoppers and Purchases by Credit Card have Increased Dong-a Ilbo Prosecutors Tracing Bank Accounts of Chun Shin-il, a Long-time Friend of President Lee Myung-bak, in "Park Yeon-cha Bribery Scandal" Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Seoul Shinmun Prosecutors Raid Tax Office in Ongoing Bribery Scandal Segye Ilbo Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Says U.S. Economy out of Recession by End of Year DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- The ROK Cabinet yesterday approved plans to offer an aid package of more than $74 million and dispatch additional aid workers to Afghanistan. (All) U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth will visit Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo and Moscow starting today for consultations on the North Korean nuclear issue. Korean media has focused on the possibility that Ambassador Bosworth may visit Pyongyang, even though State Department Spokesman Robert Wood said on May 6 that he "has no current plans to visit North Korea." (Chosun, Seoul, all TVs, OhmyNews) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- According to an ROKG source, North Korea has been speeding up construction of a new long-range missile test site in Tongchangri, North Pyongan Province. Furthermore, vehicles and personnel are busily moving around in Kilju, North Hamgyeong Province, where the North conducted an underground nuclear test in 2006, showing signs of preparations for another test. (Chosun) Jack Pritchard, former special envoy for negotiations with North Korea under the Bush Administration, said in a May 5 interview with Chosun Ilbo that the Six-Party Talks have come to an end and that four-way talks between the two Koreas, the U.S. and China will likely be used to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue in the future. (Chosun) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -North Korea -------------- Bosworth to Tour Asia for Talks Most ROK media gave attention to U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth's May 7-14 visit to countries �A;involved in the Six-Party Talks for consultations on the North Korean nuclear issue. Conservative Chosun Ilbo and moderate Seoul Shinmun, in particular, focused coverage on the possibility of Ambassador Bosworth's visit SEOUL 00000720 002 OF 004 to Pyongyang. Chosun noted Ambassador Bosworth's four-day stay in Seoul and speculated that this may have to do with his possible visit to North Korea. Seoul Shinmun, on the other hand, referred to State Department Spokesman Robert Wood's May 6 statement, "The delegation's meeting schedule is still being arranged," and interpreted this as indicating that Washington is pursuing an invitation for the Ambassador to visit Pyongyang. Nuclear and Missile Activities/ Six-Party Talks Citing an ROKG source, conservative Chosun Ilbo reported that North Korea has been speeding up construction of a new long-range missile test site in Tongchangri, North Pyongan Province. The report went on to say that vehicles and personnel are also busily moving around in Kilju, North Hamgyeong Province, where the North conducted an underground nuclear test in 2006, showing signs of preparations for another test. Chosun also featured a May 5 interview with Jack Pritchard, former special envoy for negotiations with North Korea under the Bush Administration, quoting him as saying that the Six-Party Talks have come to an end and that four-way talks between the two Koreas, the U.S. and China will likely be used to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue in the future. FEATURES -------------- SEOUL PLANS TO SEND TAEKWONDO INSTRUCTORS AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING WORKERS TO AFGHANISTAN (JoongAng Ilbo, May 7, 2009, Front Page) By Reporter Ye Young-joon The aid package to Afghanistan announced by the ROKG on May 6 includes plans to increase the number of ROK aid workers of the Provincial Reconstruction Teams from 25, mainly medical staff, to 85 by sending trainers in vocational education and computer skills and taekwondo instructors early next year. The ROKG also plans to spend an additional 25.3 billion won (19.5 million dollars) building and expanding vocational training centers and hospitals and to provide ambulances and patrol motorbikes worth 5 million dollars. This plan was approved at a Cabinet meeting, which was held on May 6 under the presidency of Prime Minister Han Seung-soo. A total of 12 taekwondo instructors will be tasked with training police in Afghanistan. From 2002 to last year, the ROKG provided aid worth 66 million dollars to the reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. This time, the aid package does not include cash contributions and troop redeployment, which have continuously stirred up controversy. ACTIVITY AT N. KOREAN TEST SITES INTENSIFIES (Chosun Ilbo, May 7, 2009, Page 4) By Military Affairs Reporter Yoo Yong-won North Korea has been speeding up construction of a new long-range missile test site in Tongchangri, North Pyongan Province. In addition, vehicles and personnel are busily moving around in Kilju, North Hamgyeong Province, where the North conducted an underground nuclear test in 2006, showing signs of preparations for another. "The North has recently been speeding up construction at the test site in Tongchangri by deploying more equipment and personnel," an ROKG source said Wednesday. "We expected the North would complete construction sometime late this year, but it now seems that it could be completed several months earlier." Construction of the test site began eight years ago and was 80 percent complete last September. ROK military authorities believe the North could accelerate completion of the test site and test-launch a long-range ballistic SEOUL 00000720 003 OF 004 missile from there. North Korea on April 29 threatened to conduct a second nuclear test and test an intercontinental ballistic missile, unless the UN Security Council lifts sanctions against it and "apologizes." The test site in Tongchangri is believed to be capable of launching both ICBMs and satellite rockets, and is much larger and has more up-to-date facilities than the current similar test site in Musudanri, North Hamgyong Province. The ROKG source noted, "Since an underground nuclear test is difficult to predict in advance, we do not know exactly when a nuclear test will be possible, but we think that the North is prepared to conduct the test in the near future whenever it wants." (We have compared the English version on the website with the Korean version and added the last paragraph to make them identical.) "SIX-PARTY TALKS HAVE COME TO AN END... FOUR-WAY TALKS WILL LIKELY BE USED TO RESOLVE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR ISSUE" (Chosun Ilbo, May 7, 2009, Page 4) By Washington Correspondent Lee Ha-won Interview with Jack Pritchard, former Bush Administration Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea "North Korea is missing a good opportunity by continuing its provocations against Obama, who wants dialogue." "North Korea failed to understand exactly the position of the Obama Administration, which intends to carry out a different policy from the Bush Administration. North Korea's National Defense Committee Chairman Kim Jong-il should immediately dismiss the North Korean experts on the U.S. due to their incorrect analysis of the position of the Obama Administration." Jack Pritchard, former Bush Administration Special Envoy for Negotiations with North Korea, made the statement during a May 5 interview with Chosun Ilbo. He also criticized the North, which is rejecting dialogue even after its missile launch, for "missing a good opportunity." Saying, "The Six-Party Talks have ended now," he predicted that if the North returns to dialogue, new multilateral talks like the four-party talks in the 1990s will emerge. The hour-long interview was conducted on May 5 at the Korea Economic Institute headed by Mr. Pritchard. ¶Q. North Korea has criticized the Obama Administration, saying that it is no different from the Bush Administration. "There is a fundamental problem with North Korea's attitude. The Obama Administration needed some time to set up a team and formulate policy regarding the Korean Peninsula. However, the North Koreans created the wrong atmosphere by making a series of provocations, including the missile launch. They did not predict how their provocations would affect the Obama Administration." ¶Q. What is the difference between the Obama Administration and the Bush Administration? "Look at (U.S.) relations with Iran, CUBA and Syria. President Obama publicly said that he will reach out to those nations in a different way. He said he will listen to them more and have high-level talks. Other nations have responded positively to this, but only the North is losing this good opportunity." ¶Q. How does North Korea's behavior affect the Obama Administration? "Because the North continuously makes provocations, the Obama Administration has become very cautious (about the North). The North brought the 'outlier' status on itself. Now the Obama Administration neither focuses on the North Korean issue nor responds seriously to it." SEOUL 00000720 004 OF 004 ¶Q. You mean that North Korea's behavior gave a bad impression to high-level policy officials in the Obama Administration? "The officials, who have been dealing with North Korean issues for the past 17 years and have now joined the Obama Administration, are now one step away from the North Korean issue. For the time being, they will neither adopt a too negative policy toward the North nor give excessive incentives to the North, but they will watch North Korea's self-destructive actions. As the North has responded wrongly, the U.S. policy is highly likely to turn rather conservative." ¶Q. Do you think that it will be difficult to restart the Six-Party Talks? "I think that the Six-Party Talks have ended now. At the moment, there are no signs that the Six-Party Talks will resume. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also said at a Congressional hearing that it is 'implausible' that the North will return to the Six-Party Talks." ¶Q. Why do you think the North Koreans quit the Six-Party Talks? "Since they consider the nuclear issue a bilateral issue with the U.S., they do not want Japan and Russia to join. I think that we cannot bring the North back to the Six-Party Talks. However, we could create another form of multilateral talks." ¶Q. What form of multilateral talks can replace the Six-Party Talks? "In the 1990s, we had the four-party talks involving the two Koreas, the U.S. and China. The fundamental agreement at that time was that any form of dialogue - whether they were bilateral or trilateral talks - were possible within the four-party talks. It was very flexible. Dialogue can initially take the form of four-party talks, and later Japan and Russia can joining again. However, since the trilateral talks involving the U.S., China and North Korea did not work well, I do not think that the trilateral talks are possible." ¶Q. How long do you think the current confrontation will last? "Probably for about five months. We do not have a solution in the short term. Even if the U.S. tries to do something, the North is not prepared to budge. North Korea will continue to come up with an aggressive policy on the ground of domestic political considerations." ¶Q. What is the possibility of North Korea conducting a second nuclear test? "The possibility that North Korea will (carry out another) nuclear test will increase. Above all, since China agreed to the UN Security Council presidential statement recognizing UNSC Resolution 1718, North Korea is furious. When the North carried out the first nuclear test in 2006, it also rejected China's demand to stop the test." ¶Q. What is the solution to the current situation? "Representative Bosworth does not need to go as far as to visit North Korea. We should invite North Korea's First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kang Suk-joo to Washington, not to New York, and start dialogue. We should prevent a further deepening of misunderstanding between the U.S. and North Korea." STANTON