BY-ELECTION RESULTS HIGHLIGHT LOOMING INTRA-PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000693 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV KS SUBJECT: BY-ELECTION RESULTS HIGHLIGHT LOOMING INTRA-PARTY BATTLES REF: SEOUL 0636 (INTRA-PARTY FIGHT) Classified By: POL M/C Joseph Y. Yun. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (SBU) Results of the April 29 by-election, in which five National Assembly seats were up for grabs, highlight looming intra-party battles (reftel) for control of both major parties, the right-of-center Grand National Party (GNP) and the left-of-center Democratic Party (DP). The GNP was hardest hit, not winning a single seat, though the DP did not fare much better. In fact only in the Bupyeon district in Incheon -- the only head-to-head matchup between the DP and GNP -- did DP candidate Hong Young-pyo (49.54 percent) win, beating his GNP rival Lee Jae-hoon (39.09 percent). In the two Jeonju races, both liberal independent candidates Chung Dong-young (72.3 percent) and Shin Gunn (50.4 percent) handily beat their DP rivals. The far-left candidate won in the labor town of Ulsan, where the New Progressive Party's Cho Seung-soo (49.2 percent) won a surprisingly narrow victory over his GNP competitor, Park Dae-dong (41.37 percent). A conservative independent candidate won in Kyeongju, where Park Geun-hye's former security adviser Chung Soo-sung beat the GNP candidate by more than 10 percentage points. If all three independents join parties -- the DP for Chung Dong-young and Shin and the GNP for Chung Soo-sung -- the GNP will have a net loss in the National Assembly of one seat and the DP a net gain of two. Turnout exceeded 40 percent, high for a by-election. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶2. (C) The DP's win in Incheon is small consolation for its bitter losses in Jeonju, leaving the DP braced for independent Chung Dong-young's divisive fight to return to the party. The DP's success in Incheon could make this process more difficult -- had the party failed entirely, the DP leadership would have been too weak to protest. Still, there is little doubt that Chung Dong-young will ultimately rejoin the DP. ¶3. (C) The GNP could have won three seats -- Kyeongju, Incheon, and Ulsan -- but came up empty handed. Incheon and Ulsan are swing seats, and the GNP candidate did better than expected in Ulsan in the face of a united far-left, making Kyeongju the most consequential loss. The Kyeongju defeat portends more conflict between the pro-Lee Myung-bak and pro-Park Geun-hye factions within the GNP. Pro-Lee lawmakers Lee Sang-deuk and party Chief Park Hee-tae will have to take responsibility for the GNP's losses in the by-election. The resulting boost of power to Park will probably necessitate a party leadership position going to a pro-Park lawmaker, forming a more equitable balance of power between the two intra-party factions. STEPHENS