Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09SEOUL640
2009-04-20 07:28:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Seoul
Cable title:
SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 20, 2009
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 SEOUL 000640
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 20, 2009
TOP HEADLINES
--------------
Chosun Ilbo
Strengthening Domestic Demand is the Way for ROK Economy to Survive;
Heavy Dependence on Exports Might Lead ROK Economy to "Collapse"
Like Singapore's Economy Did
JoongAng Ilbo
No Cuts Seen in Scholarship Funding in This Economic Slump
Dong-a Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun
Prosecutors Accuse Former President Roh's Wife
of Lying in Bribe Case
Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo, All TVs
Two Koreas to Hold Talks about Kaesong Industrial Complex...
Inter-Korean Relations at a Critical Juncture
DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
--------------
The two Koreas will meet tomorrow to discuss matters regarding the
joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North. Pyongyang proposed
the talks on April 18, saying that it has something important to say
regarding the joint complex. (All)
Experts speculated that the North might use the meeting to threaten
to shut down the industrial complex should Seoul join the U.S.-led
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) aimed at interdicting the
transfer of weapons of mass destruction. (All)
The Lee Myung-bak Administration once again delayed its announcement
to join the PSI following the North's request for tomorrow's talks.
President Lee reportedly accepted a request by Unification Minister
Hyun In-taek to override the Foreign Ministry and postpone the
announcement to join the PSI. (Chosun)
A spokesman for the General Staff of the North Korean People's Army,
in an April 18 statement, stepped up its saber rattling against the
ROK's joining of the PSI, arguing: "The Lee Myung-bak group of
traitors must not forget that Seoul is only 50 kilometers away from
the Military Demarcation Line." (All)
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
--------------
President Barack Obama offered a spirit of cooperation to America's
neighbors in the western hemisphere at the April 18 Summit of the
Americas in Port of Spain, Trinidad. Newspapers showed pictures of
President Obama shaking hands with Venezuela's leftist leader and
longtime U.S. critic, Hugo Chavez. (All)
MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------
-North Korea
--------------
North Korea's April 18 proposal to hold inter-Korean talks tomorrow
(April 21) regarding the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in the
North received wide coverage. Citing local experts, most of the ROK
media speculated that North Korea might try to link the ROK's
planned participation in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security
Initiative (PSI),which is aimed at interdicting the transfer of
weapons of mass destruction, with the fate of the Kaesong Industrial
Complex.
In a related development, the ROK media took note of an April 18
statement by a spokesman of the General Staff of the North Korean
People's Army that Seoul is just 50 kilometers away from the
SEOUL 00000640 002 OF 006
Military Demarcation Line. The ROK media viewed this remark as
reminiscent of the North's 1994 threat: "Seoul is not far from here.
If there is a war, it will become a sea of fire."
The ROK media also reported that the Lee Myung-bak Administration
once again delayed its announcement to join the PSI following the
North's request for tomorrow's talks. The media noted that it is
the third time that Seoul has postponed the scheduled announcement
as tensions between the two Koreas continue to grow over the North's
recent rocket launch and the drawn-out detention of an ROK worker in
the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "North Korea's verbal
provocations have reached their threshold and it is only a matter of
time before the North puts those into action. The ROK and the U.S.
should deter North Korea from moving toward that end. ... Regarding
the issue of fully participating in the PSI, the ROKG should take a
careful approach, while weighing the benefits of its full
participation against the losses, instead of wavering in the face of
North Korea's threats."
Conservative Dong-a Ilbo's editorial argued: "Since March of last
year when North Korea prohibited ROK officials from crossing the
border , (the North) has continuously used the Industrial Complex as
a means to get its way in inter-Korean relations. If the North
continues to stick to its hostile stance, the ROK needs to declare
its intention to shut down the complex. If (North Korea's actions)
cause damage to ROK companies and endanger ROK citizens, the complex
should be shut down."
-Summit of the Americas
--------------
Most of the ROK media gave front-and inside-page play to the April
18 Summit of the Americas in Port of Spain, Trinidad, in which
President Barack Obama offered a spirit of cooperation to America's
neighbors in the hemisphere and showed pictures of President Obama
shaking hands with Venezuela's leftist leader and longtime U.S.
critic, Hugo Chavez.
In a related development, conservative Chosun Ilbo's front-page
report summed up President Obama's foreign policy as follows:
Washington will reconcile with countries that are willing to take
America's "outstretched hands," but will take strong action against
countries that reject the outstretched hands. To bear this out, the
report, citing diplomatic sources in Washington, noted that the
Obama Administration is apparently getting angry with North Korea,
in contrast to its conciliatory gestures toward other "rogue" states
such as Cuba and Iran, because of the North's refusal to enter into
dialogue (with the U.S.) following its rocket launch, as well as its
expulsion of IAEA monitors and a State Department representative.
OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
--------------
HOLD FIRM AGAINST N. KOREA'S THREAT
(Dong-a Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 31)
To prevent the ROK from fully joining the Proliferation Security
Initiative, North Korea offered last week to hold inter-Korean talks
regarding a joint industrial complex in Kaesong while also reving up
its bellicose rhetoric against the ROK Saturday. The communist
country, which has detained a Hyundai Asan employee for 22 days, is
now threatening military action against Seoul. Given the North's
full offensive by combining the fate of the complex with the
initiative, the possibility of Pyongyang acting on its threat cannot
be ruled out. As such, the ROK must recognize the gravity of the
situation and respond resolutely. By mobilizing its full
capabilities in contingency management and responses, Seoul must
prevent the Korean Peninsula from plunging into chaos through the
North's provocation.
When the North made the proposal to hold talks Thursday, it chose
Tuesday as the date. Pyongyang chose the date after Seoul delayed
SEOUL 00000640 003 OF 006
full participation in the initiative to Sunday from the originally
scheduled date of April 15. After the North's offer, Seoul once
again postponed its participation after the inter-Korean talks,
though it denied that the postponement had anything to do with the
talks. Seoul was being manipulated by Pyongyang, which saw right
through the ROK's move.
The two Koreas will meet in Kaesong, but it's not clear whether
their talks will result in the release of the detained employee. By
detaining a South Korean, the North violated an inter-Korean
agreement that guarantees the basic rights of employees in the joint
complex. Furthermore, it has ignored the international practice of
guaranteeing a detainee his or her right to make contact by refusing
to accept the ROK's request for access to the employee. Pyongyang,
however, allowed the U.S. to talk to two American journalists
through the Swedish Embassy in Pyongyang. The detention of the
Hyundai Asan employee clearly demonstrates that the North's slogan
"Koreans Together" is empty rhetoric. The North is likely to turn
the inter-Korean talks into a propagandistic event.
The delegation led by the ROK's Unification Ministry must speak out
against the North's inhumane act and urge prompt release of the
detainee. The delegation should also flatly reject the North's
attempt to link the humanitarian issue to either the initiative or
the complex.
Since March of last year when North Korea prohibited ROK officials
from crossing the border, (the North) has continuously used the
Industrial Complex as a means to get its way in inter-Korean
relations. If the North continues to stick to its hostile stance,
the ROK needs to declare its intention to shut down the complex. If
(North Korea's actions) cause damage to ROK companies and endanger
ROK citizens, the complex should be shut down.
Apparently, Seoul has delayed its full participation in the
initiative twice so it does not further provoke Pyongyang. If the
North continues to threaten the ROK, however, Seoul cannot continue
to back off. What should not be repeated is the practice of
previous left-leaning governments to gain nothing in exchange for
giving everything to the North. North Korea must know that the Lee
Myung-bak Administration is different from previous governments.
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)
SEOUL MUST NOT BE SWAYED BY N. KOREAN BLACKMAIL
(Chosun Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 35)
North Korea on Sunday called UN condemnation of its rocket launch
and the ROK's move to participate in the U.S-led Proliferation
Security Initiative a "declaration of war against us" and muttered
ominously that Seoul is "only 50 km from the Demilitarized Zone."
The North has resumed the blackmail it used during the first nuclear
crisis in 1994, when it threatened to turn Seoul into "a sea of
fire."
The North deploys some 1,000-odd 170 mm self-propelled guns and 240
mm multiple rocket launchers along the DMZ that have the Seoul
metropolitan area within their range. The long-range guns are
capable of firing between 7,000 and 16,000 shells per hour,
according to the ROK military.
The Combined ROK and U.S. Forces are also capable of attacking all
of North Korea the moment the North assaults the ROK with long-range
guns. In that standoff, even verbal blackmail is dangerous, so
Pyongyang is no longer tolerable.
The North claims the UN condemnation of its rocket launch and
Seoul's plan to join the PSI threaten it. But the entire
international community, Pyongyang allies China and Russia included,
objected to the rocket launch. The UN Security Council adopted a
chairman's statement, just a grade lower than a resolution, calling
for sanctions. China and Russia agreed to the statement, which maps
SEOUL 00000640 004 OF 006
out a formula for enforcing sanctions set out in the Resolution 1718
of 2006. Before the North threatens to go to war with the ROK, it
should ask its protector China why it agreed with the UNSC
statement.
The assertion that the ROK's membership in the PSI constitutes a
declaration of war is also preposterous. Pyongyang has no reason to
fear the PSI if it does not export nuclear weapons and missiles or
imports such items from abroad. The detention and search of North
Korean vessels in ROK waters is already permitted under an
inter-Korean agreement signed in August 2005.
Last Thursday, North Korea sent a message inviting a responsible ROK
official to come to a meeting on Tuesday to hear an announcement on
an "important matter" concerning the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
The North could announce restrictions that would effectively close
down the industrial park.
An ROK employee of Hyundai Asan, the operator of tour projects in
North Korea, has been held incommunicado in the North for 21 days.
A day after the government said last Wednesday that it would delay
membership in the PSI, North Korea sent the message. Upon receiving
it, the government postponed the announcement, planned for Saturday,
again until after the inter-Korean meeting. The government is going
back and forth in vital policies directly linked to our national
security.
Pyongyang has resumed its grandstanding. It is threatening the
Kaesong industrial park, from which it earns over US$34 million a
year, and ignores requests by the South Korean, who is held on
spying charges, to see a lawyer, because the North can see that the
confused ROK government can be blackmailed.
The government must look carefully at its North Korea policy and the
Seoul-Washington alliance. North Korea's verbal provocations have
reached their threshold and it is only a matter of time before the
North puts those into action. The ROK and the U.S. should deter
North Korea from moving toward that end and come up with specific
countermeasures. Regarding the issue of fully participating in the
PSI, the ROKG should take a careful approach, while weighing the
benefits of its full participation against the losses, instead of
wavering in the face of North Korea's threats.
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)
WHAT IS THE EFFECTIVE COUNTERMEASURE AGAINST NORTH KOREA'S
INCREASINGLY HARSH THREATS
(JoongAng Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 42)
North Korea's saber-rattling against the ROK is intensifying.
However, the ROKG has limited options to counter these threats since
North Korea has taken an ROK employee of the Kaesong Industrial
Complex into custody. The ROKG has been milling about in confusion
over becoming a full-fledged member of the Proliferation Security
Initiative (PSI) aimed at preventing the spread of weapons of mass
destruction. Against this backdrop, North Korea proposed on April
21 to hold an inter-Korean meeting for the first time (since the Lee
Myung-bak Administration took office).
North Korea has ratcheted up its threats against the ROK over (the
ROK's full participation in) the PSI. The Committee for Peaceful
Unification of the Fatherland threatened to construe the ROK's full
participation in the PSI as a "declaration of war." The General
Staff of North Korea's Korean People's Army is even threatening
military action against Seoul. The General Staff's bellicose
statement that Seoul is just 50km away from the Military Demarcation
Line (MDL) is reminiscent of North Korea's 'sea of fire' remark in
1993. North Korea seems to hint at its ability to attack Seoul
while avoiding explicit rhetoric to create instability within ROK
society and to divide public opinion.
North Korea's saber-rattling, which deserves condemnation, has been
SEOUL 00000640 005 OF 006
meticulously carried out. When the ROKG announced its plan to join
the PSI ahead of the North's rocket launch, North Korea detained an
ROK worker from the Kaesong Industrial Complex. After the rocket
launch, North Korea (intentionally) leaked the news of the detention
to the ROK and then proposed holding an inter-Korean meeting,
causing the ROK to delay the ROK's PSI announcement. In relation to
its PSI policy, the ROKG disregarded the unexpected "detention of
the ROK worker'. Related ministries such as the Foreign Ministry
and Unification Ministry did not coordinate sufficiently and
thoroughly on how North Korea might use this detention.
What matters is (what the ROK should do) after the inter-Korean
talks. For now, it is hard to predict what stance North Korea will
take during the inter-Korean talks. There are various forecasts
ranging from an optimistic scenario of releasing the detained worker
to a pessimistic one of shutting down the Kaesong Industrial
Complex. However, it seems that North Korea will attempt to divide
public opinion to block the ROKG from fully joining the PSI, thereby
causing the ROKG difficulty. Therefore, the ROKG should thoroughly
consider all possibilities to avoid running into this confusion
again. First of all, the ROKG hopes to strategically adjust the
timing of the announcement although it is fundamentally committed to
fully joining the PSI. The ROKG should maintain this position even
after April 21. Moreover, the ROKG should clarify its basic
principle that the detention is a humanitarian issue and that the
PSI participation is a matter of international cooperation. The
ROKG's confusing message would once again spark public criticism.
No government can carry out an effective policy without public
support. To win public support, the government should implement a
strategic and thorough policy. At the moment, the detainment of the
ROK worker and the PSI participation are pending issues. However,
the ROKG should prepare an effective countermeasure against North
Korea's security threats for the mid- and long term. If these
tensions continue, it could lead to the closing of the Kaesong
Industrial Complex and military skirmishes.
FEATURES
--------------
U.S. MAY PREFER FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION TO TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO
AFGHANISTAN
(Seoul Shinmun, April 18, 2009, Page 2)
By Washington correspondent Kim Gyun-mi and reporters Lee Jong-lac
and Kim Mi-gyeong
While the ROKG and the USG discuss ways to support Afghanistan, the
U.S. (reportedly) made noteworthy remarks that it prefers the ROK to
financially contribute about 100 million dollars (130 billion won)
per year to its Afghanistan troop deployment. Concerned about
negative domestic sentiment about a military deployment to
Afghanistan, the ROKG is reviewing ways to provide financial support
(to Afghanistan) as Japan does. This scenario, however, is also
expected to kindle controversy. In a separate measure, the ROK
agreed with the U.S. to provide conditional and unconditional aid
worth 200 million dollars to Pakistan over four years.
On April 16, Grand National Party representative Hong, Jung-wook,
who attended the 'Seoul-Washington Forum' organized by the Korea
Foundation and the Brookings Institution held at the Brookings
Institution in Washington, said that the problem is that mixed
signals are coming from the U.S. He noted that U.S. Ambassador to
the ROK Kathleen Stephens supposedly said that the U.S. may prefer
(the ROK's) financial contribution, but that others say that the
U.S. prefers troop deployment. Representative Hong added that from
what he heard, the financial contribution would amount to 100
million dollars per year. Because the U.S. disclosed its preference
for (the ROK's) financial contribution to its military dispatch for
the first time and specifically set the amount at 100 million
dollars per year, it is drawing attention. An annual expenditure of
100 million dollars is similar to the 134.8 billion to 152.8 billion
won required for the ROK deployment to Iraq from 2004 to 2006 before
SEOUL 00000640 006 OF 006
the Zaytun unit was recalled.
During an April 17 phone call with Seoul Shinmun, a key Blue House
official said low level discussions regarding a financial
contribution worth 100 million to Afghanistan are ongoing. He added
that these discussions have not gained momentum yet, but that such
an option is being discussed. The official said that the ROKG is
reviewing this issue but has not received an official request from
the USG.
A high-ranking official at the Foreign Ministry said that during the
Paris Donors' Conference in June last year, the ROKG announced its
plan to provide an additional 30 million dollars to Afghanistan from
this year to 2011. He added that the ROKG is seeking to expand the
size of its aid and increase the number of Provincial Reconstruction
Team (PRT) personnel.
Meanwhile, the ROKG decided to provide 200 million dollars of
Official Development Assistance (ODA) from this year to 2012 to help
reconstruction efforts in Pakistan in consultation with the ROK and
U.S. The ROKG pledged to provide 180 million dollars through the
Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF) and 20 million dollars
of conditional aid through the Korea International Cooperation
Agency (KOICA).
STEPHENS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 20, 2009
TOP HEADLINES
--------------
Chosun Ilbo
Strengthening Domestic Demand is the Way for ROK Economy to Survive;
Heavy Dependence on Exports Might Lead ROK Economy to "Collapse"
Like Singapore's Economy Did
JoongAng Ilbo
No Cuts Seen in Scholarship Funding in This Economic Slump
Dong-a Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun
Prosecutors Accuse Former President Roh's Wife
of Lying in Bribe Case
Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo, All TVs
Two Koreas to Hold Talks about Kaesong Industrial Complex...
Inter-Korean Relations at a Critical Juncture
DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
--------------
The two Koreas will meet tomorrow to discuss matters regarding the
joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North. Pyongyang proposed
the talks on April 18, saying that it has something important to say
regarding the joint complex. (All)
Experts speculated that the North might use the meeting to threaten
to shut down the industrial complex should Seoul join the U.S.-led
Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) aimed at interdicting the
transfer of weapons of mass destruction. (All)
The Lee Myung-bak Administration once again delayed its announcement
to join the PSI following the North's request for tomorrow's talks.
President Lee reportedly accepted a request by Unification Minister
Hyun In-taek to override the Foreign Ministry and postpone the
announcement to join the PSI. (Chosun)
A spokesman for the General Staff of the North Korean People's Army,
in an April 18 statement, stepped up its saber rattling against the
ROK's joining of the PSI, arguing: "The Lee Myung-bak group of
traitors must not forget that Seoul is only 50 kilometers away from
the Military Demarcation Line." (All)
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
--------------
President Barack Obama offered a spirit of cooperation to America's
neighbors in the western hemisphere at the April 18 Summit of the
Americas in Port of Spain, Trinidad. Newspapers showed pictures of
President Obama shaking hands with Venezuela's leftist leader and
longtime U.S. critic, Hugo Chavez. (All)
MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------
-North Korea
--------------
North Korea's April 18 proposal to hold inter-Korean talks tomorrow
(April 21) regarding the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex in the
North received wide coverage. Citing local experts, most of the ROK
media speculated that North Korea might try to link the ROK's
planned participation in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security
Initiative (PSI),which is aimed at interdicting the transfer of
weapons of mass destruction, with the fate of the Kaesong Industrial
Complex.
In a related development, the ROK media took note of an April 18
statement by a spokesman of the General Staff of the North Korean
People's Army that Seoul is just 50 kilometers away from the
SEOUL 00000640 002 OF 006
Military Demarcation Line. The ROK media viewed this remark as
reminiscent of the North's 1994 threat: "Seoul is not far from here.
If there is a war, it will become a sea of fire."
The ROK media also reported that the Lee Myung-bak Administration
once again delayed its announcement to join the PSI following the
North's request for tomorrow's talks. The media noted that it is
the third time that Seoul has postponed the scheduled announcement
as tensions between the two Koreas continue to grow over the North's
recent rocket launch and the drawn-out detention of an ROK worker in
the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "North Korea's verbal
provocations have reached their threshold and it is only a matter of
time before the North puts those into action. The ROK and the U.S.
should deter North Korea from moving toward that end. ... Regarding
the issue of fully participating in the PSI, the ROKG should take a
careful approach, while weighing the benefits of its full
participation against the losses, instead of wavering in the face of
North Korea's threats."
Conservative Dong-a Ilbo's editorial argued: "Since March of last
year when North Korea prohibited ROK officials from crossing the
border , (the North) has continuously used the Industrial Complex as
a means to get its way in inter-Korean relations. If the North
continues to stick to its hostile stance, the ROK needs to declare
its intention to shut down the complex. If (North Korea's actions)
cause damage to ROK companies and endanger ROK citizens, the complex
should be shut down."
-Summit of the Americas
--------------
Most of the ROK media gave front-and inside-page play to the April
18 Summit of the Americas in Port of Spain, Trinidad, in which
President Barack Obama offered a spirit of cooperation to America's
neighbors in the hemisphere and showed pictures of President Obama
shaking hands with Venezuela's leftist leader and longtime U.S.
critic, Hugo Chavez.
In a related development, conservative Chosun Ilbo's front-page
report summed up President Obama's foreign policy as follows:
Washington will reconcile with countries that are willing to take
America's "outstretched hands," but will take strong action against
countries that reject the outstretched hands. To bear this out, the
report, citing diplomatic sources in Washington, noted that the
Obama Administration is apparently getting angry with North Korea,
in contrast to its conciliatory gestures toward other "rogue" states
such as Cuba and Iran, because of the North's refusal to enter into
dialogue (with the U.S.) following its rocket launch, as well as its
expulsion of IAEA monitors and a State Department representative.
OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
--------------
HOLD FIRM AGAINST N. KOREA'S THREAT
(Dong-a Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 31)
To prevent the ROK from fully joining the Proliferation Security
Initiative, North Korea offered last week to hold inter-Korean talks
regarding a joint industrial complex in Kaesong while also reving up
its bellicose rhetoric against the ROK Saturday. The communist
country, which has detained a Hyundai Asan employee for 22 days, is
now threatening military action against Seoul. Given the North's
full offensive by combining the fate of the complex with the
initiative, the possibility of Pyongyang acting on its threat cannot
be ruled out. As such, the ROK must recognize the gravity of the
situation and respond resolutely. By mobilizing its full
capabilities in contingency management and responses, Seoul must
prevent the Korean Peninsula from plunging into chaos through the
North's provocation.
When the North made the proposal to hold talks Thursday, it chose
Tuesday as the date. Pyongyang chose the date after Seoul delayed
SEOUL 00000640 003 OF 006
full participation in the initiative to Sunday from the originally
scheduled date of April 15. After the North's offer, Seoul once
again postponed its participation after the inter-Korean talks,
though it denied that the postponement had anything to do with the
talks. Seoul was being manipulated by Pyongyang, which saw right
through the ROK's move.
The two Koreas will meet in Kaesong, but it's not clear whether
their talks will result in the release of the detained employee. By
detaining a South Korean, the North violated an inter-Korean
agreement that guarantees the basic rights of employees in the joint
complex. Furthermore, it has ignored the international practice of
guaranteeing a detainee his or her right to make contact by refusing
to accept the ROK's request for access to the employee. Pyongyang,
however, allowed the U.S. to talk to two American journalists
through the Swedish Embassy in Pyongyang. The detention of the
Hyundai Asan employee clearly demonstrates that the North's slogan
"Koreans Together" is empty rhetoric. The North is likely to turn
the inter-Korean talks into a propagandistic event.
The delegation led by the ROK's Unification Ministry must speak out
against the North's inhumane act and urge prompt release of the
detainee. The delegation should also flatly reject the North's
attempt to link the humanitarian issue to either the initiative or
the complex.
Since March of last year when North Korea prohibited ROK officials
from crossing the border, (the North) has continuously used the
Industrial Complex as a means to get its way in inter-Korean
relations. If the North continues to stick to its hostile stance,
the ROK needs to declare its intention to shut down the complex. If
(North Korea's actions) cause damage to ROK companies and endanger
ROK citizens, the complex should be shut down.
Apparently, Seoul has delayed its full participation in the
initiative twice so it does not further provoke Pyongyang. If the
North continues to threaten the ROK, however, Seoul cannot continue
to back off. What should not be repeated is the practice of
previous left-leaning governments to gain nothing in exchange for
giving everything to the North. North Korea must know that the Lee
Myung-bak Administration is different from previous governments.
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)
SEOUL MUST NOT BE SWAYED BY N. KOREAN BLACKMAIL
(Chosun Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 35)
North Korea on Sunday called UN condemnation of its rocket launch
and the ROK's move to participate in the U.S-led Proliferation
Security Initiative a "declaration of war against us" and muttered
ominously that Seoul is "only 50 km from the Demilitarized Zone."
The North has resumed the blackmail it used during the first nuclear
crisis in 1994, when it threatened to turn Seoul into "a sea of
fire."
The North deploys some 1,000-odd 170 mm self-propelled guns and 240
mm multiple rocket launchers along the DMZ that have the Seoul
metropolitan area within their range. The long-range guns are
capable of firing between 7,000 and 16,000 shells per hour,
according to the ROK military.
The Combined ROK and U.S. Forces are also capable of attacking all
of North Korea the moment the North assaults the ROK with long-range
guns. In that standoff, even verbal blackmail is dangerous, so
Pyongyang is no longer tolerable.
The North claims the UN condemnation of its rocket launch and
Seoul's plan to join the PSI threaten it. But the entire
international community, Pyongyang allies China and Russia included,
objected to the rocket launch. The UN Security Council adopted a
chairman's statement, just a grade lower than a resolution, calling
for sanctions. China and Russia agreed to the statement, which maps
SEOUL 00000640 004 OF 006
out a formula for enforcing sanctions set out in the Resolution 1718
of 2006. Before the North threatens to go to war with the ROK, it
should ask its protector China why it agreed with the UNSC
statement.
The assertion that the ROK's membership in the PSI constitutes a
declaration of war is also preposterous. Pyongyang has no reason to
fear the PSI if it does not export nuclear weapons and missiles or
imports such items from abroad. The detention and search of North
Korean vessels in ROK waters is already permitted under an
inter-Korean agreement signed in August 2005.
Last Thursday, North Korea sent a message inviting a responsible ROK
official to come to a meeting on Tuesday to hear an announcement on
an "important matter" concerning the Kaesong Industrial Complex.
The North could announce restrictions that would effectively close
down the industrial park.
An ROK employee of Hyundai Asan, the operator of tour projects in
North Korea, has been held incommunicado in the North for 21 days.
A day after the government said last Wednesday that it would delay
membership in the PSI, North Korea sent the message. Upon receiving
it, the government postponed the announcement, planned for Saturday,
again until after the inter-Korean meeting. The government is going
back and forth in vital policies directly linked to our national
security.
Pyongyang has resumed its grandstanding. It is threatening the
Kaesong industrial park, from which it earns over US$34 million a
year, and ignores requests by the South Korean, who is held on
spying charges, to see a lawyer, because the North can see that the
confused ROK government can be blackmailed.
The government must look carefully at its North Korea policy and the
Seoul-Washington alliance. North Korea's verbal provocations have
reached their threshold and it is only a matter of time before the
North puts those into action. The ROK and the U.S. should deter
North Korea from moving toward that end and come up with specific
countermeasures. Regarding the issue of fully participating in the
PSI, the ROKG should take a careful approach, while weighing the
benefits of its full participation against the losses, instead of
wavering in the face of North Korea's threats.
(This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.)
WHAT IS THE EFFECTIVE COUNTERMEASURE AGAINST NORTH KOREA'S
INCREASINGLY HARSH THREATS
(JoongAng Ilbo, April 20, 2009, Page 42)
North Korea's saber-rattling against the ROK is intensifying.
However, the ROKG has limited options to counter these threats since
North Korea has taken an ROK employee of the Kaesong Industrial
Complex into custody. The ROKG has been milling about in confusion
over becoming a full-fledged member of the Proliferation Security
Initiative (PSI) aimed at preventing the spread of weapons of mass
destruction. Against this backdrop, North Korea proposed on April
21 to hold an inter-Korean meeting for the first time (since the Lee
Myung-bak Administration took office).
North Korea has ratcheted up its threats against the ROK over (the
ROK's full participation in) the PSI. The Committee for Peaceful
Unification of the Fatherland threatened to construe the ROK's full
participation in the PSI as a "declaration of war." The General
Staff of North Korea's Korean People's Army is even threatening
military action against Seoul. The General Staff's bellicose
statement that Seoul is just 50km away from the Military Demarcation
Line (MDL) is reminiscent of North Korea's 'sea of fire' remark in
1993. North Korea seems to hint at its ability to attack Seoul
while avoiding explicit rhetoric to create instability within ROK
society and to divide public opinion.
North Korea's saber-rattling, which deserves condemnation, has been
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meticulously carried out. When the ROKG announced its plan to join
the PSI ahead of the North's rocket launch, North Korea detained an
ROK worker from the Kaesong Industrial Complex. After the rocket
launch, North Korea (intentionally) leaked the news of the detention
to the ROK and then proposed holding an inter-Korean meeting,
causing the ROK to delay the ROK's PSI announcement. In relation to
its PSI policy, the ROKG disregarded the unexpected "detention of
the ROK worker'. Related ministries such as the Foreign Ministry
and Unification Ministry did not coordinate sufficiently and
thoroughly on how North Korea might use this detention.
What matters is (what the ROK should do) after the inter-Korean
talks. For now, it is hard to predict what stance North Korea will
take during the inter-Korean talks. There are various forecasts
ranging from an optimistic scenario of releasing the detained worker
to a pessimistic one of shutting down the Kaesong Industrial
Complex. However, it seems that North Korea will attempt to divide
public opinion to block the ROKG from fully joining the PSI, thereby
causing the ROKG difficulty. Therefore, the ROKG should thoroughly
consider all possibilities to avoid running into this confusion
again. First of all, the ROKG hopes to strategically adjust the
timing of the announcement although it is fundamentally committed to
fully joining the PSI. The ROKG should maintain this position even
after April 21. Moreover, the ROKG should clarify its basic
principle that the detention is a humanitarian issue and that the
PSI participation is a matter of international cooperation. The
ROKG's confusing message would once again spark public criticism.
No government can carry out an effective policy without public
support. To win public support, the government should implement a
strategic and thorough policy. At the moment, the detainment of the
ROK worker and the PSI participation are pending issues. However,
the ROKG should prepare an effective countermeasure against North
Korea's security threats for the mid- and long term. If these
tensions continue, it could lead to the closing of the Kaesong
Industrial Complex and military skirmishes.
FEATURES
--------------
U.S. MAY PREFER FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION TO TROOP DEPLOYMENT TO
AFGHANISTAN
(Seoul Shinmun, April 18, 2009, Page 2)
By Washington correspondent Kim Gyun-mi and reporters Lee Jong-lac
and Kim Mi-gyeong
While the ROKG and the USG discuss ways to support Afghanistan, the
U.S. (reportedly) made noteworthy remarks that it prefers the ROK to
financially contribute about 100 million dollars (130 billion won)
per year to its Afghanistan troop deployment. Concerned about
negative domestic sentiment about a military deployment to
Afghanistan, the ROKG is reviewing ways to provide financial support
(to Afghanistan) as Japan does. This scenario, however, is also
expected to kindle controversy. In a separate measure, the ROK
agreed with the U.S. to provide conditional and unconditional aid
worth 200 million dollars to Pakistan over four years.
On April 16, Grand National Party representative Hong, Jung-wook,
who attended the 'Seoul-Washington Forum' organized by the Korea
Foundation and the Brookings Institution held at the Brookings
Institution in Washington, said that the problem is that mixed
signals are coming from the U.S. He noted that U.S. Ambassador to
the ROK Kathleen Stephens supposedly said that the U.S. may prefer
(the ROK's) financial contribution, but that others say that the
U.S. prefers troop deployment. Representative Hong added that from
what he heard, the financial contribution would amount to 100
million dollars per year. Because the U.S. disclosed its preference
for (the ROK's) financial contribution to its military dispatch for
the first time and specifically set the amount at 100 million
dollars per year, it is drawing attention. An annual expenditure of
100 million dollars is similar to the 134.8 billion to 152.8 billion
won required for the ROK deployment to Iraq from 2004 to 2006 before
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the Zaytun unit was recalled.
During an April 17 phone call with Seoul Shinmun, a key Blue House
official said low level discussions regarding a financial
contribution worth 100 million to Afghanistan are ongoing. He added
that these discussions have not gained momentum yet, but that such
an option is being discussed. The official said that the ROKG is
reviewing this issue but has not received an official request from
the USG.
A high-ranking official at the Foreign Ministry said that during the
Paris Donors' Conference in June last year, the ROKG announced its
plan to provide an additional 30 million dollars to Afghanistan from
this year to 2011. He added that the ROKG is seeking to expand the
size of its aid and increase the number of Provincial Reconstruction
Team (PRT) personnel.
Meanwhile, the ROKG decided to provide 200 million dollars of
Official Development Assistance (ODA) from this year to 2012 to help
reconstruction efforts in Pakistan in consultation with the ROK and
U.S. The ROKG pledged to provide 180 million dollars through the
Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF) and 20 million dollars
of conditional aid through the Korea International Cooperation
Agency (KOICA).
STEPHENS