SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 13, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 SEOUL 000594 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 13, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo Former President Roh Denies Knowledge of His Wife's Receipt of 1.3 Billion Won from Taekwang Industrial CEO JoongAng Ilbo Taekwang Industrial CEO: "Roh's Former Secretary Gave Me Bank Account Number of Roh's Nephew-In-Law's Venture Company So That I Could Send $5 Million to Roh's Nephew-In-Law" Dong-a Ilbo Prosecution Confirms Former President Roh's Son is a Major Shareholder of Roh's Nephew-In-Law's Venture Company Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun Former President Roh's Wife, Son Questioned in Bribery Scandal Hankyoreh Shinmun Former First Lady Testifies that She Received 1.3 Billion Won from Taekwang Industrial CEO DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- President Lee Myung-bak held a tripartite summit in Pattaya, Thailand with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, in which the three leaders called for a "unified and stern" response to North Korea's latest rocket launch. (JoongAng, Hankook, Segye, Seoul) According to the U.S. trade journal, Inside U.S. Trade, Assistant USTR Danny Sepulveda told business representatives last week that it is the intent of USTR to address outstanding issues on the pending free trade agreements with Panama, Colombia and South Korea without renegotiating their texts. (Dong-a, Hankook, Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- The UN Security Council (UNSC) agreed on April 11 to adopt a presidential statement that would condemn North Korea's rocket launch and toughen UN sanctions against North Korea. A presidential statement is considered a weaker reaction by the UNSC but the current statement contains stronger language and demands than many observers predicted. (All) On April 11, the Thai government canceled the scheduled annual "ASEAN+3" Summit in Pattaya due to violent anti-government demonstrations. Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a state of emergency in the capital, Bangkok, and its surrounding areas. (All) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -North Korea -------------- The UN Security Council (UNSC)'s April 11 agreement to adopt a presidential statement - that would condemn North Korea's rocket launch and toughen UN sanctions against North Korea - received wide attention. Most of the ROK media noted that a presidential statement is considered a weaker reaction by the UNSC but that the current statement contains stronger language and demands than many observers predicted. SEOUL 00000594 002 OF 005 The ROK media also reported on an April 11 tripartite summit in Pattaya, Thailand between the leaders of the ROK, China and Japan, in which the three leaders called for a "unified and stern" response to North Korea's latest rocket launch. Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo editorialized today: "This presidential statement has great significance in that it was a decision agreed upon by the UN Security Council in response to North Korea's defiant rocket launch. ... Since the impact of the sanctions hinges on how actively UN members will implement them, it is premature to say whether the presidential statement is truly effective. The presidential statement is also limited because it lacks compelling force. Nevertheless, North Korea should not take it lightly that China and Russia joined the condemnation and agreed to specific sanctions, based on the perception that North Korea's long-range rocket launch violates UN Security Council Resolution ¶1718. The North should seriously consider the fact that the international community, including China and Russia, spoke with one voice about its rocket launch." Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "The presidential statement cannot be the same as a UN Security Council resolution. It is questionable whether the steps that the UNSC Sanctions Committee decides to take will be practical and whether the non-binding statement will be effective in implementing sanctions on the North. ... It is very disappointing that China and Russia took North Korea's provocation lightly and refused to adopt a resolution on the North. The international community must clearly demonstrate to the North the principle that 'it should pay the price for its bad behavior.'" Moderate Hankook Ilbo's editorial stated: "It is generally believed that North Korea failed to achieve its goals at home and abroad of showcasing its missile capability and testing the will of the Obama Administration. In particular, since North Korea failed to make great improvements in its rocket technology, the overriding view is that North Korea would not dare to pursue a second nuclear test as some people fear. ... Strong sanctions could only give North Korea justification for rationalizing its bad behavior, rather than deterring the North." Moderate Hankook Ilbo also observed in a commentary: "The reason why China is generous to North Korea is because it wants the Six-Party Talks which are aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula to be successful. ... If China joins the international community in sanctioning North Korea, North Korea might defy China. This would derail the framework of the Six-Party Talks and weaken China's influence on North Korea. For China, the Kim Jong-il regime should be kept in place and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula should be achieved through the Six-Party Talks in order to stabilize Northeast Asia. This is why China has no choice but to accept North Korea's 'stand-alone' strategy even at the expense of damaging its international reputation." ASEAN Summit - Protests in Pattaya The ROK media carried straight, inside-page reports saying that thousands of anti-government protesters stormed the venue for the 14th ASEAN Summit and related summits in Pattaya, Thailand, forcing the Thai government to cancel those summits and to evacuate world leaders from the country. The ROK media went on to report that Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a state of emergency in the capital, Bangkok, and its surrounding areas. Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo wrote in the headline: "The Root Cause of 'Demo-Thailand' is a Power Conflict between (Ousted Former Prime Minister) Thaksin, the King and the Military." Conservative Dong-a Ilbo's Headline Read: "Thai Government Deploys Armed Police and the Military... Bloodshed Feared." Left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun headlined its story: "Thailand's 'Abhisit Cabinet' In Danger of Collapse After Only Four Months in Power" OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- SEOUL 00000594 003 OF 005 CHINA CAN'T SAY 'NO' TO NORTH KOREA (Hankook Ilbo, April 13, 2009, Page 35) By Beijing Correspondent Jang Hak-man Recently, China demonstrated its increased stature while keeping abreast with the U.S. during the G20 financial summit. China stressed the need to overhaul the international financial system and to create a new key currency. China also showed an active willingness to share international values. The G20 spotlighted the search for economic solutions and showed China's elevated status. However, China's attitude toward North Korea has not changed. Chinese Prime Minister Hu Jintao told President Lee Myung-bak at the G20 meeting that he would dissuade North Korea from the rocket launch. But while the ROK, U.S. and Japan which were calling for sanctions following the rocket launch, China has been defending North Korea. China played a behind-the-scenes role in the UN Security Council's adoption of a presidential statement instead of a resolution. Why can't China say "no", despite its displeasure with North Korea? The reason lies in the long history between China and North Korea as socialist brothers in North East Asia. Prime Minister Hu Jintao sent a congratulatory message to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who was reappointed as National Defense Commission chairman during the recent parliament meeting. In the message, Hu stated that Kim Jong-il's reappointment as head of the military indicated North Koreans' loyalty and deep trust. Hu Jintao added that this year marks the 60th anniversary of normalized diplomatic relations between China and North Korea based on amity and cooperation, and China will make efforts to further solidify bilateral relations. It seems that after confirming the stability of the Kim Jong-il regime, China sent a belated message congratulating North Korea's rocket launch. The reason why China is generous to North Korea is because it wants the Six-Party Talks which are aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula to be successful. For two decades, China has provided 200 million dollars of free aid to North Korea, which has suffered from energy and food shortages. On the contrary, this shows that should China twist North Korea's wrist, the DPRK could soon topple any time. However, China would not be careless enough to do so. If China joins the international community in sanctioning North Korea, North Korea might defy China. This would derail the framework of the Six-Party Talks and weaken China's influence on North Korea. For China, the Kim Jong-il regime should be kept in place and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula should be achieved through the Six-Party Talks in order to stabilize North East Asia. This is why China has no choice but to accept North Korea's "stand alone" strategy even at the expense of damaging its international reputation. China could form an opposition front involving Russia and North Korea against an alliance of the ROK, the U.S. and Japan. China seems to tolerate North Korea to maintain a balance of power. The rocket launch may either improve or strain U.S.-North Korean relations. But in either case, China seems to regard North Korea as useful leverage. Although time has passed, the reality of a Cold War still exists in North East Asia. (Therefore,) in order to maintain the balance of power in North East Asia, China, an aspiring world power, cannot say "no" to North Korea. SUBSTANTIVE SANCTIONS SHOULD BE IMPOSED ON NORTH KOREA'S ROCKET LAUNCH (Dong-a Ilbo, April 13, 2009, Page 31) The UN Security Council plans on April 13 to officially adopt a SEOUL 00000594 004 OF 005 presidential statement regarding North Korea's April 5 long-range rocket launch. It is noteworthy that the draft of the presidential statement, proposed by the U.S. and supported by major nations, is more specific than other such statements. The statement specifies that the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea should strengthen the sanctions mentioned in Article 8 of UN Security Council Resolution 1718. Therefore, according to some observers, what is a presidential statement in form is virtually identical to a resolution in substance. However, the presidential statement cannot be the same as a UN Security Council resolution. It is questionable whether the steps that the UNSC Sanctions Committee decides to take will be practical and whether the non-binding statement will be effective in implementing sanctions on the North. North Korea proceeded with its provocation probably because it believed that UN members did not implement sanctions in a consistent way and China and Russia would support the North in the end. It is very disappointing that China and Russia took North Korea's recent provocation lightly and refused to adopt a resolution on North Korea. The international community must clearly demonstrate to the North the principle, "It should pay the price for its bad behavior." Based on the presidential statement, the U.S., Japanese and ROK governments should closely cooperate to implement sanctions against the North. In addition, they need to jointly utilize all possible measures in a systematic way. In addition, we should double our efforts to obtain an independent capability to effectively curb and respond to a threat from the North, which is armed with nuclear weapons and missiles. We should also decide on any measures which could deal heavy blows to the North, such as full participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative and the prompt development of the Missile Defense system. CHINA AND RUSSIA AGREE TO UNSC'S STATEMENT CONDEMNING NORTH KOREA (JoongAng Ilbo, April 13, 2009, Page 46) The UN Security Council agreed yesterday to adopt a presidential statement condemning North Korea's long-range rocket launch and toughening UN sanctions against North Korea. Taking this realistic approach can be described as a "Solomon's decision." After the U.S., which argued for the adoption of a legally binding resolution, and China and Russia, which objected to it, remained at an impasse for nearly a week, they finally reached a compromise to put stringent sanctions in the form of a non-binding presidential statement. This has great significance in that it was a decision agreed upon by the UN Security Council in response to North Korea's defiant rocket launch. We hope that the statement will be passed "as is" at the upcoming UN Security Council meeting. The final text of the presidential statement has designated North Korea's April 5 rocket launch as a violation of UN Security Council 1718, which bans North Korea from any ballistic missile activity. Consequently, the statement demands that the sanctions specified in Article 8 of the resolution should be implemented. Since the impact of the sanctions hinges on how actively UN members will implement them, it is premature to say whether the presidential statement is truly effective. The presidential statement is also limited because of its lack of compelling force. Nevertheless, North Korea should not take it lightly that China and Russia joined the condemnation of North Korea and agreed to specific sanctions, based on the perception that North Korea's long-range rocket launch violates UN Security Council Resolution 1718. The North should seriously consider the fact that the international community, including China and Russia, spoke with one voice about its rocket launch. Should the presidential statement be adopted as it is, the ball will be in North Korea's court. Claiming that UN Security Council discussion about the rocket launch runs counter to the September 19 SEOUL 00000594 005 OF 005 Joint Statement, the North has threatened not only to boycott the Six-Party Talks, but also to suspend disabling their nuclear facilities and, instead, restore them to their original state. North Korea should coolly think about whether those actions will serve their national interests. In 2006, immediately following North Korea's nuclear test, UN Security Council Resolution 1718 was adopted, but sanctions on the North became merely nominal when the DPRK returned to the Six-Party Talks. It is up to North Korea whether or not the sanctions will be implemented in earnest this time. If the North irrationally overturns the Six-Party table because of the presidential statement, its isolation and suffering will be further aggravated. NO NEED TO BE OBSESSED WITH STRONG SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA (Hankook Ilbo, April 13, 2009, Page 35) The UN Security Council permanent members and Japan have reportedly agreed to adopt a presidential statement condemning North Korea's rocket launch. The presidential statement came after the Japanese government stepped back from its argument for a new resolution following opposition from China and Russia and a passive attitude from the U.S. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said that it is meaningless to insist on a resolution. He added that it is important for the international community to send a proper message to North Korea. As Aso said, it is desirable in many ways to wrap up the situation with a stern warning, rather than endlessly debating tough sanctions. Because UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea imposed after its 2006 nuclear test have failed to deter its "bad behavior", it is not wise to drag out the dispute over a resolution. It is time to end the dispute over North Korea's rocket launch and to focus on the larger framework of the Six-Party Talks. Of course, the draft of the presidential statement adopted in place of a resolution contains strong language. The presidential statement specifically calls for implementing the asset freezing and travel ban measures in the 2006 UN Security Council Resolution that were not carried out. The presidential statement reflects the tough stance of not only Japan, but also the ROKG. However, figuring out how to steer North Korea toward a desirable direction is critical. There are concerns that failing to chastise the North would cause North Korea to stray even further. However, it is generally believed that North Korea has failed to achieve its goals at home and abroad of showcasing its missile capability and testing the will of the Obama Administration. In particular, since North Korea failed to make great improvements in its rocket technology, the overriding view is that North Korea would not dare to pursue a second nuclear test as some people fear. Nonetheless, North Korea continues to praise North Korean leader Kim Jong-il for his great accomplishments, while hailing its satellite launch as a success. This indicates that the main purpose for the rocket launch was to strengthen its shaky unity and herald the beginning of Kim Jong-il's third term. Strong sanctions could give North Korea justification for rationalizing its bad behavior rather than deterring the North. STEPHENS