SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 13, 2009

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TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 13, 2009

TOP HEADLINES
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Chosun Ilbo
Former President Roh Denies Knowledge of His Wife's Receipt of 1.3
Billion Won from Taekwang Industrial CEO

JoongAng Ilbo
Taekwang Industrial CEO: "Roh's Former Secretary Gave Me Bank
Account Number of Roh's Nephew-In-Law's Venture Company So That I
Could Send $5 Million
to Roh's Nephew-In-Law"

Dong-a Ilbo
Prosecution Confirms Former President Roh's Son is a Major
Shareholder of Roh's Nephew-In-Law's Venture Company

Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun
Former President Roh's Wife, Son Questioned
in Bribery Scandal

Hankyoreh Shinmun
Former First Lady Testifies that She Received 1.3 Billion Won from
Taekwang Industrial CEO


DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
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President Lee Myung-bak held a tripartite summit in Pattaya,
Thailand with Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and Chinese Premier
Wen Jiabao, in which the three leaders called for a "unified and
stern" response to North Korea's latest rocket launch. (JoongAng,
Hankook, Segye, Seoul)

According to the U.S. trade journal, Inside U.S. Trade, Assistant
USTR Danny Sepulveda told business representatives last week that it
is the intent of USTR to address outstanding issues on the pending
free trade agreements with Panama, Colombia and South Korea without
renegotiating their texts. (Dong-a, Hankook, Hankyoreh, Segye,
Seoul)


INTERNATIONAL NEWS
--------------

The UN Security Council (UNSC) agreed on April 11 to adopt a
presidential statement that would condemn North Korea's rocket
launch and toughen UN sanctions against North Korea. A presidential
statement is considered a weaker reaction by the UNSC but the
current statement contains stronger language and demands than many
observers predicted. (All)

On April 11, the Thai government canceled the scheduled annual
"ASEAN+3" Summit in Pattaya due to violent anti-government
demonstrations. Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a
state of emergency in the capital, Bangkok, and its surrounding
areas. (All)


MEDIA ANALYSIS
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-North Korea
--------------
The UN Security Council (UNSC)'s April 11 agreement to adopt a
presidential statement - that would condemn North Korea's rocket
launch and toughen UN sanctions against North Korea - received wide
attention. Most of the ROK media noted that a presidential
statement is considered a weaker reaction by the UNSC but that the
current statement contains stronger language and demands than many
observers predicted.


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The ROK media also reported on an April 11 tripartite summit in
Pattaya, Thailand between the leaders of the ROK, China and Japan,
in which the three leaders called for a "unified and stern" response
to North Korea's latest rocket launch.

Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo editorialized today: "This
presidential statement has great significance in that it was a
decision agreed upon by the UN Security Council in response to North
Korea's defiant rocket launch. ... Since the impact of the
sanctions hinges on how actively UN members will implement them, it
is premature to say whether the presidential statement is truly
effective. The presidential statement is also limited because it
lacks compelling force. Nevertheless, North Korea should not take
it lightly that China and Russia joined the condemnation and agreed
to specific sanctions, based on the perception that North Korea's
long-range rocket launch violates UN Security Council Resolution

1718. The North should seriously consider the fact that the
international community, including China and Russia, spoke with one
voice about its rocket launch."

Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "The presidential statement
cannot be the same as a UN Security Council resolution. It is
questionable whether the steps that the UNSC Sanctions Committee
decides to take will be practical and whether the non-binding
statement will be effective in implementing sanctions on the North.
... It is very disappointing that China and Russia took North
Korea's provocation lightly and refused to adopt a resolution on the
North. The international community must clearly demonstrate to the
North the principle that 'it should pay the price for its bad
behavior.'"

Moderate Hankook Ilbo's editorial stated: "It is generally believed
that North Korea failed to achieve its goals at home and abroad of
showcasing its missile capability and testing the will of the Obama
Administration. In particular, since North Korea failed to make
great improvements in its rocket technology, the overriding view is
that North Korea would not dare to pursue a second nuclear test as
some people fear. ... Strong sanctions could only give North Korea
justification for rationalizing its bad behavior, rather than
deterring the North."

Moderate Hankook Ilbo also observed in a commentary: "The reason why
China is generous to North Korea is because it wants the Six-Party
Talks which are aimed at denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula to be
successful. ... If China joins the international community in
sanctioning North Korea, North Korea might defy China. This would
derail the framework of the Six-Party Talks and weaken China's
influence on North Korea. For China, the Kim Jong-il regime should
be kept in place and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
should be achieved through the Six-Party Talks in order to stabilize
Northeast Asia. This is why China has no choice but to accept North
Korea's 'stand-alone' strategy even at the expense of damaging its
international reputation."

ASEAN Summit - Protests in Pattaya
The ROK media carried straight, inside-page reports saying that
thousands of anti-government protesters stormed the venue for the
14th ASEAN Summit and related summits in Pattaya, Thailand, forcing
the Thai government to cancel those summits and to evacuate world
leaders from the country. The ROK media went on to report that Thai
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared a state of emergency in
the capital, Bangkok, and its surrounding areas.

Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo wrote in the headline: "The Root Cause
of 'Demo-Thailand' is a Power Conflict between (Ousted Former Prime
Minister) Thaksin, the King and the Military." Conservative Dong-a
Ilbo's Headline Read: "Thai Government Deploys Armed Police and the
Military... Bloodshed Feared." Left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun
headlined its story: "Thailand's 'Abhisit Cabinet' In Danger of
Collapse After Only Four Months in Power"

OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
--------------


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CHINA CAN'T SAY 'NO' TO NORTH KOREA
(Hankook Ilbo, April 13, 2009, Page 35)

By Beijing Correspondent Jang Hak-man

Recently, China demonstrated its increased stature while keeping
abreast with the U.S. during the G20 financial summit. China
stressed the need to overhaul the international financial system and
to create a new key currency. China also showed an active
willingness to share international values. The G20 spotlighted the
search for economic solutions and showed China's elevated status.

However, China's attitude toward North Korea has not changed.
Chinese Prime Minister Hu Jintao told President Lee Myung-bak at the
G20 meeting that he would dissuade North Korea from the rocket
launch. But while the ROK, U.S. and Japan which were calling for
sanctions following the rocket launch, China has been defending
North Korea. China played a behind-the-scenes role in the UN
Security Council's adoption of a presidential statement instead of a
resolution.

Why can't China say "no", despite its displeasure with North Korea?
The reason lies in the long history between China and North Korea as
socialist brothers in North East Asia. Prime Minister Hu Jintao
sent a congratulatory message to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il,
who was reappointed as National Defense Commission chairman during
the recent parliament meeting. In the message, Hu stated that Kim
Jong-il's reappointment as head of the military indicated North
Koreans' loyalty and deep trust. Hu Jintao added that this year
marks the 60th anniversary of normalized diplomatic relations
between China and North Korea based on amity and cooperation, and
China will make efforts to further solidify bilateral relations. It
seems that after confirming the stability of the Kim Jong-il regime,
China sent a belated message congratulating North Korea's rocket
launch.

The reason why China is generous to North Korea is because it wants
the Six-Party Talks which are aimed at denuclearizing the Korean
Peninsula to be successful. For two decades, China has provided 200
million dollars of free aid to North Korea, which has suffered from
energy and food shortages. On the contrary, this shows that should
China twist North Korea's wrist, the DPRK could soon topple any
time.

However, China would not be careless enough to do so. If China
joins the international community in sanctioning North Korea, North
Korea might defy China. This would derail the framework of the
Six-Party Talks and weaken China's influence on North Korea. For
China, the Kim Jong-il regime should be kept in place and the
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula should be achieved through
the Six-Party Talks in order to stabilize North East Asia. This is
why China has no choice but to accept North Korea's "stand alone"
strategy even at the expense of damaging its international
reputation.

China could form an opposition front involving Russia and North
Korea against an alliance of the ROK, the U.S. and Japan. China
seems to tolerate North Korea to maintain a balance of power. The
rocket launch may either improve or strain U.S.-North Korean
relations. But in either case, China seems to regard North Korea as
useful leverage.

Although time has passed, the reality of a Cold War still exists in
North East Asia. (Therefore,) in order to maintain the balance of
power in North East Asia, China, an aspiring world power, cannot say
"no" to North Korea.


SUBSTANTIVE SANCTIONS SHOULD BE IMPOSED ON NORTH KOREA'S ROCKET
LAUNCH
(Dong-a Ilbo, April 13, 2009, Page 31)

The UN Security Council plans on April 13 to officially adopt a

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presidential statement regarding North Korea's April 5 long-range
rocket launch. It is noteworthy that the draft of the presidential
statement, proposed by the U.S. and supported by major nations, is
more specific than other such statements. The statement specifies
that the UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea
should strengthen the sanctions mentioned in Article 8 of UN
Security Council Resolution 1718. Therefore, according to some
observers, what is a presidential statement in form is virtually
identical to a resolution in substance.

However, the presidential statement cannot be the same as a UN
Security Council resolution. It is questionable whether the steps
that the UNSC Sanctions Committee decides to take will be practical
and whether the non-binding statement will be effective in
implementing sanctions on the North.

North Korea proceeded with its provocation probably because it
believed that UN members did not implement sanctions in a consistent
way and China and Russia would support the North in the end. It is
very disappointing that China and Russia took North Korea's recent
provocation lightly and refused to adopt a resolution on North
Korea. The international community must clearly demonstrate to the
North the principle, "It should pay the price for its bad
behavior."

Based on the presidential statement, the U.S., Japanese and ROK
governments should closely cooperate to implement sanctions against
the North. In addition, they need to jointly utilize all possible
measures in a systematic way. In addition, we should double our
efforts to obtain an independent capability to effectively curb and
respond to a threat from the North, which is armed with nuclear
weapons and missiles. We should also decide on any measures which
could deal heavy blows to the North, such as full participation in
the Proliferation Security Initiative and the prompt development of
the Missile Defense system.


CHINA AND RUSSIA AGREE TO UNSC'S STATEMENT CONDEMNING NORTH KOREA
(JoongAng Ilbo, April 13, 2009, Page 46)

The UN Security Council agreed yesterday to adopt a presidential
statement condemning North Korea's long-range rocket launch and
toughening UN sanctions against North Korea. Taking this realistic
approach can be described as a "Solomon's decision." After the
U.S., which argued for the adoption of a legally binding resolution,
and China and Russia, which objected to it, remained at an impasse
for nearly a week, they finally reached a compromise to put
stringent sanctions in the form of a non-binding presidential
statement. This has great significance in that it was a decision
agreed upon by the UN Security Council in response to North Korea's
defiant rocket launch. We hope that the statement will be passed
"as is" at the upcoming UN Security Council meeting.

The final text of the presidential statement has designated North
Korea's April 5 rocket launch as a violation of UN Security Council
1718, which bans North Korea from any ballistic missile activity.
Consequently, the statement demands that the sanctions specified in
Article 8 of the resolution should be implemented. Since the
impact of the sanctions hinges on how actively UN members will
implement them, it is premature to say whether the presidential
statement is truly effective. The presidential statement is also
limited because of its lack of compelling force.

Nevertheless, North Korea should not take it lightly that China and
Russia joined the condemnation of North Korea and agreed to specific
sanctions, based on the perception that North Korea's long-range
rocket launch violates UN Security Council Resolution 1718. The
North should seriously consider the fact that the international
community, including China and Russia, spoke with one voice about
its rocket launch.

Should the presidential statement be adopted as it is, the ball will
be in North Korea's court. Claiming that UN Security Council
discussion about the rocket launch runs counter to the September 19

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Joint Statement, the North has threatened not only to boycott the
Six-Party Talks, but also to suspend disabling their nuclear
facilities and, instead, restore them to their original state.
North Korea should coolly think about whether those actions will
serve their national interests. In 2006, immediately following
North Korea's nuclear test, UN Security Council Resolution 1718 was
adopted, but sanctions on the North became merely nominal when the
DPRK returned to the Six-Party Talks. It is up to North Korea
whether or not the sanctions will be implemented in earnest this
time. If the North irrationally overturns the Six-Party table
because of the presidential statement, its isolation and suffering
will be further aggravated.


NO NEED TO BE OBSESSED WITH STRONG SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA
(Hankook Ilbo, April 13, 2009, Page 35)

The UN Security Council permanent members and Japan have reportedly
agreed to adopt a presidential statement condemning North Korea's
rocket launch. The presidential statement came after the Japanese
government stepped back from its argument for a new resolution
following opposition from China and Russia and a passive attitude
from the U.S. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso said that it is
meaningless to insist on a resolution. He added that it is
important for the international community to send a proper message
to North Korea.

As Aso said, it is desirable in many ways to wrap up the situation
with a stern warning, rather than endlessly debating tough
sanctions. Because UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea
imposed after its 2006 nuclear test have failed to deter its "bad
behavior", it is not wise to drag out the dispute over a resolution.
It is time to end the dispute over North Korea's rocket launch and
to focus on the larger framework of the Six-Party Talks.

Of course, the draft of the presidential statement adopted in place
of a resolution contains strong language. The presidential
statement specifically calls for implementing the asset freezing and
travel ban measures in the 2006 UN Security Council Resolution that
were not carried out. The presidential statement reflects the tough
stance of not only Japan, but also the ROKG. However, figuring out
how to steer North Korea toward a desirable direction is critical.

There are concerns that failing to chastise the North would cause
North Korea to stray even further. However, it is generally
believed that North Korea has failed to achieve its goals at home
and abroad of showcasing its missile capability and testing the will
of the Obama Administration. In particular, since North Korea
failed to make great improvements in its rocket technology, the
overriding view is that North Korea would not dare to pursue a
second nuclear test as some people fear.

Nonetheless, North Korea continues to praise North Korean leader Kim
Jong-il for his great accomplishments, while hailing its satellite
launch as a success. This indicates that the main purpose for the
rocket launch was to strengthen its shaky unity and herald the
beginning of Kim Jong-il's third term. Strong sanctions could give
North Korea justification for rationalizing its bad behavior rather
than deterring the North.


STEPHENS