CHUNG ANNOUNCES INDEPENDENT BID IN PROBABLE POWER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 000590 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2019 TAGS: KS KN PGOV PREL SUBJECT: CHUNG ANNOUNCES INDEPENDENT BID IN PROBABLE POWER PLAY Classified By: A/POL Brian McFeeters. Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Former liberal presidential candidate Chung Dong-young announced on April 10 at the Democratic Party (DP) headquarters in Seoul that he would run as an independent in the April 29 by-election in Jeolla Province. Chung had announced his intention last month to run on the DP ticket, but party rivals denied him the nomination. A Chung confidant told us April 10 that Chung would recruit another independent candidate to run in the second of two Jeolla Province seats to be decided in the by-election, to drive home the point that he had more political power as an independent than the party leaders who denied him the nomination. The controversy surrounding Chung's bid comes at a difficult time for the DP. Already suffering from a dearth of leadership, the party is under siege because of prosecutors' investigations into liberal former President Roh Moo-hyun and many politicians close to him. Chung will likely be successful in his candidacy -- he has twice served as representative of that district -- and expects that he would quickly be readmitted to the Democratic Party, due to its weak condition. END SUMMARY. -------------- Chung's Return -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On March 13, former liberal presidential candidate Chung Dong-young returned from an eight-month sabbatical in the United States and announced his intention to run for a National Assembly seat in the April 29 by-election. Chung said he would run in his hometown of Deokjin in North Jeolla Province. Chung won landslides in this district in 1996 and ¶2000. Chung, however, was defeated in the 2007 presidential election and the 2008 parliamentary election when he ran for a seat in Seoul, leading some within the DP to feel Chung should quit politics altogether. -------------- Chung's Rejection -------------- ¶3. (C) On April 6, the DP's highest decision-making body, after rejecting calls for compromise from senior members of the party, unanimously agreed not to nominate Chung as its candidate for the Deokjin electoral district. Contacts report that DP Leader Chung Sye-kyun was upset with the fact that Chung Dong-young unilaterally announced his decision to run for the by-election without any prior consultation with DP leaders. Many contacts in the DP opposed Chung Dong-young's return particularly because he decided to run in his hometown in the DP stronghold of Jeolla. If he was really interested in helping the party, they said, he would run in Bupyeong (on the outskirts of Seoul),which is widely anticipated to be a closer race. -------------- Chung's Chutzpah -------------- ¶4. (C) A Chung Dong-young confidant told poloff on April 10 that Chung's decision to announce his independent candidacy at DP headquarters in Seoul was intended to make the point that he still exercised power in the party and planned to return. The decision to recruit a Chung supporter to run as an independent in the second of two races in Jeolla -- assuming a victory, which is highly likely -- would reinforce Chung's party power at the expense of his rivals. Of the DP's 83 lawmakers, 15 publicly supported Chung Dong-young. Voters, too, approve of his candidacy; a recent Realmeter poll found that 55.5 percent of DP supporters wanted Chung to get the party's nomination. ¶5. (C) Chung's confidant said Chung wanted to return to the DP rather than start a new party, which would require considerable financial and logistical resources. Chung sympathizers have noted that his return could help revitalize the party whose approval ratings have languished at around 10 percent compared with the GNP's at about 30 percent. DP contacts complain that the leadership is weak and failed to regain the party's popularity even though they had ample opportunity in light of widespread criticism of conservative President Lee Myung-bak. They all agreed the DP lacks an "engine" for revival. The DP has also been hard hit by the Park Yeon-cha scandal, whereby two DP representatives, both close confidants of former President Roh Moo-hyun, as well as Roh himself are under investigation on charges of receiving illicit funds from Park. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Chung's brash decision to announce his independent candidacy at DP headquarters and his plan to recruit an independent candidate for the second Jeolla seat is a clear signal of his intent to recapture leadership of the DP. It is a move that caught his political rivals off-guard. Given the weak state of the DP, if he is successful in winning both Jeolla seats, he may very well emerge as the party's leader. STEPHENS