SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 6, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 08 SEOUL 000560 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 6, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo Experts: "N. Korea Fails to Either Fire Satellite into Orbit or Wring Concessions from Obama Administration" JoongAng Ilbo Intelligence Authorities: "N. Korea Sent 'Cargo Ship' to Monitor Rocket Launch, but the Ship Broke Down On Its Way to the Pacific Ocean" Dong-a Ilbo ROK Semiconductor Parts Supplier Withdraws Key Production Line from Kaesong Industrial Complex Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun Prime Minister Han: "We Need to Review Missile Agreement with U.S. that Restricts ROK's Missile Range to Under 300km" Hankyoreh Shinmun "Inconsistent" Signals from ROKG on North Korea: Seoul Says that It Will Send Special Envoy to N. Korea If Need be, While Seeking to Join PSI DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- President Lee Myung-bak, in an April 6 meeting with leaders of the country's three main political parties, said that the ROKG is actively considering joining the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) to join global efforts to stop the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. (All) Main opposition Democratic Party (DP) Chairman Chung Sye-kyun, however, raised concerns that such a move could lead to armed conflicts between the two Koreas. (All) Prime Minister Han Seung-soo told the National Assembly yesterday that the ROKG may push to revise a 2001 agreement with the U.S. that prevents Seoul from developing missiles with a range of over 300km. He was quoted: "At this time, we need to reconsider whether it is right for us to be restricted. It is time to have serious discussions at the ROK-U.S. defense ministers' talks." (Dong-a, Hankook, Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- The UN failed yesterday to agree on a response to North Korea's latest rocket launch. The U.S. and Japan called for strong sanctions on North Korea, calling the North's launch a "violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1718," but China and Russia objected to those demands. (All) The U.S. Congress, meanwhile, called for total compliance to stop the export of weapons and luxury goods to North Korea. (Chosun) According to the April 5 issue of The New York Times, U.S. missile experts consider North Korea's rocket launch to be a "failure," while downplaying the North's rocket technology. The experts believe that the North's missile technology does not represent any kind of near-term threat. (Chosun, Hankyoreh) ROK experts commented that the Obama Administration would not be as easily dragged along by North Korea as the Clinton Administration was during the North's 1998 missile test. They added that if the North tests the patience of the Obama Administration, the U.S. Administration will deal with the North through "tough diplomacy." (Chosun) SEOUL 00000560 002 OF 008 MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -North Korea's Rocket Launch -------------- The ROK media gave wide attention to the UN Security Council's failure yesterday to agree on a response to North Korea's latest rocket launch. The media reported that the U.S. and Japan called for strong sanctions on North Korea but that China and Russia objected to those demands. Conservative Chosun Ilbo's editorial commented: "Would China take this casual attitude if the ROK and Japan developed nuclear weapons and missiles which targeted it? China is emerging as a global power comparable to the U.S. If China does nothing about North Korea's nuclear and missile provocations that violate international regulations, it only breeds doubt in the international community about China's leadership." Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo editorialized: "We wonder if China and Russia intend to bear responsibility for any future dangers that could be triggered by their failure to punish North Korea. Even if the North attempted to launch a satellite, it is evident that the same technology can be used to launch a ballistic missile. Despite this, China and Russia (continue to) stress taking a fair and cautious reaction based only on North Korea's claims. ... It is incongruous to turn a blind eye to North Korea's provocations while hoping for stability and peace in Northeast Asia. If China and Russia give deep thought to what a balanced reaction is, there is no way they could object to the UN Security Council's effective sanctions on North Korea. Moderate Hankook Ilbo's editorial argued: "What is important now is not only to send a clear message that North Korea will be punished for its provocative behavior but also to maintain the momentum of dialogue and negotiations, such as the Six-Party Talks. In particular, we should caution against a reemergence of a Cold-War confrontational structure between the ROK, the U.S. and Japan on one side and North Korea, China and Russia on the other." Most of the ROK media noted yesterday's remarks by Prime Minister Han Seung-soo at the National Assembly saying that the ROKG may push to revise a 2001 agreement with the U.S. that restrains Seoul from developing missiles with ranges of over 300 kilometers. Prime Minister Han was widely quoted as saying: "At this time, we need to reconsider whether it is right for us to be restricted. It is time to have serious discussions at the ROK-U.S. defense ministers' talks." In a related development, conservative Chosun Ilbo noted in its editorial: "What is important is not whether North Korea launched a satellite or missile. The ROK and the U.S. must note the rapid progress of North Korea's long-range missile technology. If this trend continues, North Korea might soon get its hands on an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the American mainland." Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "The ROK lags far behind North Korea in missile capability. ... This is because Seoul must follow a bilateral missile treaty with Washington. ... In this regard, calls for a revision of the (ROK-U.S. missile) agreement following Sunday's launch of the Taepodong-2 are increasingly gaining ground." Conservative Chosun Ilbo front-paged a report predicting that the overall tone of President Barack Obama's North Korea policy is not expected to change, due to the technical failure of North Korea's long-range rocket launch. The report went on to say that Pyongyang's plan apparently was to show off its rocket technology through the latest launch and catapult itself to the top of Obama's diplomatic agenda to win concessions. Instead, it appears that the U.S. administration and scientific community have concluded that North Korea still is not a major threat in terms of its capacity to fire a missile at the American mainland. In another report citing ROK experts, Chosun observed that the Obama Administration would not be as easily dragged along by North Korea as the Clinton SEOUL 00000560 003 OF 008 Administration during the North's 1998 missile test. Chosun went on to say that if the North tests the patience of the Obama Administration, the U.S. Administration will deal with the North through "tough diplomacy." -President Obama visit to Turkey -------------- Moderate Hankook Ilbo and Seoul Shinmun and ROK TV networks, including MBC and YTN, reported on President Obama's visit to Turkey. The media noted that Mr. Obama had chosen Turkey for his first visit to a Muslim country, because the U.S. is in desperate need of help from Turkey to wind down the war in Iraq and bring stability to the Middle East. Hankook Ilbo wrote in the headline: "The Reason Behind Obama's Courtship is to Use Turkey to Mediate Middle East Peace Efforts and to Hold Russia In Check" MBN's Headline reads: "Obama Engages in All-out Courtship to Woo the Muslim World." 24 hour news network YTN Headlined its Story: "Obama: Iran Should Choose between Nuclear Weapons and a (Better) Future." OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- LONGER MISSILE RANGE NEEDED (Dong-a Ilbo, April 7, 2009, Page 31) On Sunday, North Korea increased its missile range in firing the Taepodong-2 compared to its launch of the Taepodong-1 in 1998. Although the range cannot reach Alaska or Hawaii, the Taepodong-2 traveled about 3,200 km before falling into the Pacific Ocean. The North will step up efforts to develop inter-continental ballistic missiles targeting the U.S. mainland through 2012, when it aims to establish itself as a "powerful country." Coincidently, 2012 is the year when the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved and Seoul will take over wartime operational command from Washington. The ROK cannot afford to relax just because the North has failed to put its satellite into orbit. The North could also pursue a second nuclear test sooner rather than later. Pyongyang conducted an underground nuclear test in October 2006 soon after its failed Taepodong-1 launch in July that year. Even without the Taepodong-2, the North far exceeds the ROK in missile capability. Pyongyang holds 600 Scud B missiles and 200 Scud Cs with ranges of 300 to 500 kilometers. Pyongyang also has 200 Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300 kilometers, able to hit Japan. The North also deployed in 2007 a new intermediate-range ballistic missile with a range of 3,000 kilometers that can threaten the U.S. territory of Guam. In contrast, the ROK lags far behind North Korea in missile capability. The Hyunmu missile developed by Seoul using homegrown technology has a range of only 250 kilometers. The ROK's Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles introduced from the United States can reach only about 300 kilometers. This is because Seoul must follow a bilateral missile treaty with Washington. And this is an extension from 180 to 300 kilometers after renegotiating the treaty following Pyongyang's test-firing of the Taepodong-1 in 1998. Hence, calls for a further revision of the treaty following Sunday's launch of the Taepodong-2 is increasingly gaining ground. Another restriction is the missile technology control regime initiated by the United States in 1987. The regime aims to prevent the proliferation of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads weighing 500 kilograms or more to a distance of more than 300 kilometers. Whether a country will follow the guidelines depends on its domestic law, but the restriction is impractical for the ROK. Experts say Seoul needs missiles with a range of at least 550 kilometers, which will allow the ROK to cover all of North Korea. A cruise missile under development by the ROK that possesses a range of more than 1,000 kilometers is a weapon that can precisely attack the North while dodging the weight restriction. SEOUL 00000560 004 OF 008 Seoul must speed up the missile's development. An immediate task is to expand the missile capability of the Combined Forces Command, including the deployment of additional Patriot missiles by U.S. troops stationed in the ROK, and the loading of SM-3 missiles in the Korean Aegis destroyer King Sejong the Great. If the ROK neglects the North's ballistic missile development, the deployment to the Korean Peninsula of additional U.S. forces mobilized from the U.S. mainland and Guam and in the ROK-U.S. joint wartime operations could be seriously disrupted. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) CHINA AND RUSSIA SHOULD BE IN STEP WITH INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO SANCTION NORTH KOREA (JoongAng Ilbo, April 7, 2009, Page 46) The UN Security Council called an emergency session yesterday to consider a response to North Korea's long-range rocket launch, but failed to reach an agreement. The U.S., Britain and France said that North Korea's rocket launch violates UN Security Council Resolution 1718 adopted in 2006, which prohibits the North's development of ballistic missiles. These countries also favored imposing additional sanctions on North Korea. On the other hand, China and Russia invoked North Korea's sovereign right to explore outer space to justify its alleged satellite launch. Although additional debate is expected, China and Russia are not likely to change their positions. North Korea's launch of a rocket that could potentially be used as a long-range missile is a flagrant violation (of UN rules). However, it is very likely that North Korea will be left unscathed because of China and Russia's opposition to sanctions. We wonder if China and Russia intend to bear the responsibility for any future danger that could be triggered by their failure to punish North Korea? Moreover, it was discovered that the alleged satellite failed to reach orbit. Therefore, there is no way to confirm North Korea's claims (to a satellite launch). Even if the North attempted to launch a satellite, the same technology can also be used to launch a ballistic missile. Despite this realization, China and Russia (continue to) stress taking a fair and cautious reaction based only upon North Korea's claims. However, these two countries are turning a blind eye in condoning the North's provocative actions. North Korea has already conducted a nuclear test and purportedly made progress in miniaturizing nuclear warheads. Should North Korea acquire Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)-level technology, it could have dreadful repercussions. China and Russia would lose ground for objecting to the U.S.-led Missile Defense (MD) system. This could be a great opportunity for Japan to accelerate its military build-up. According to the Yomiuri survey, because of North Korea's rocket launch, 88% of the Japanese felt insecure and 60% of them favored an increase in military spending. The ROK will not just sit on its hands. Voices calling for the ROK to revise the limitations on its developing missiles to ranges not exceeding 300 kilometers are increasingly growing louder. It is incongruous to turn a blind eye to North Korea's provocative actions while hoping for stability and peace in North East Asia. If China and Russia give deep thought what a balanced reaction is, there is no way they could object to the proposed use of UN sanctions on North Korea. STEERING CLEAR OF HARD LINE RHETORIC AND ARMS BUILD-UP (Hankyoreh Shinmun, April 7, 2009, Page 23) President Lee Myung-bak told the leaders of the three ruling and opposition parties that his administration is considering participation in the United States-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI),and it "has no relation to North Korea's rocket SEOUL 00000560 005 OF 008 launch." In other words, the government will soon announce a plan of full participation. President Lee's attitude goes against the more realistic comments he has been making about issues related to North Korea as of late. On March 30, he told the British business daily Financial Times in an interview that he opposed a military response even if North Korea fired a rocket, and that he would maintain the Kaesong Industrial Complex. On April 3, during a press conference with international journalists in the United Kingdom, he said, "participation in PSI is something we'll decide while monitoring North Korea's attitude." He said he is ready to send a special emissary to the North if it is ready to accept one. Those comments signal a strategy to keep from further upsetting Pyongyang while trying prepare for dialogue, when as evidenced by the mood in the recent United Nations Security Council meeting, it is never easy for the international community to be wholeheartedly and entirely in favor of sanctions. After just a few days, however, and Lee appears to have returned to his earlier hard-line rhetoric. Although the way he says differing things about the same issue when speaking in different contexts is nothing new, he was particularly flippant regarding North Korea and the international community. North Korea has said it would consider full participation in PSI by Seoul as a "declaration of war." Because Lee has a responsibility to stabilize inter-Korean relations, his new comments seem inappropriate. Members of his ruling Grand National Party (GNP) were just as inappropriate for their unrestrained comments about participating in Missile Defense (MD),closing down the Kaesong Industrial Complex, and postponing the date for taking wartime operational control of its military forces from the United States. There are worrisome activities going on external to South Korea as well. Japan is about to have its cabinet extend the ongoing sanctions on North Korea for one year, as well as to explore the possibility of enacting additional economic sanctions. It seems that Japan, which deployed missile defense systems on land and sea for the first time in response to the rocket launch, will commence a massive arms buildup. U.S. President Barack Obama, known to have been an abolitionist when it came to MD, now says that he will seek to continue its development as long as Iran remains a threat. This kind of hard-line rhetoric and calls for arms buildup using the North Koreas rocket launch as justification are of no help in resolving the North Korean nuclear and missile issues, or in establishing a peace regime for the Korean peninsula and the Northeast Asian region. Our government must not allow itself to be pulled into the same hard-line rhetoric, which has no practical benefit and has massive attendant costs, and instead calmly prepare the mood for dialogue that will come after a time of cooling off. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) ¶N. KOREA'S MISSILE TECHNOLOGY IS A THREAT TO THE SOUTH (Chosun Ilbo, April 7, 2009, Page 27) The long-range rocket North Korea launched on Sunday dropped into the Pacific Ocean after flying over 3,200 km, a little under half of the 7,000-8,000 km the South Korean and U.S. authorities anticipated. The satellite launch ended in failure, but what is important is not whether it was a satellite or a missile. Seoul and Washington must instead pay attention to North Korea's rapidly developing long-range missile technology. The Taepodong-1 missile the North fired in 1998 flew 1,620 km and the Taepodong-2 missile in 2006 broke and fizzled in 40 seconds. But in over a decade, North Korea has nearly doubled its missile range from 1,620 km to over 3,200 km. Should the trend continue, Pyongyang would before long possess inter-continental ballistic missiles with a range sufficient to reach America. In the past, when it judged that its provocative actions were being ignored by the international community, North Korea attempted to recover credibility through additional provocative actions. Following its failed missile test in 2006, Pyongyang demonstrated SEOUL 00000560 006 OF 008 its strength by firing six Scud and Rodong missiles and tested a nuclear device in October of that year. Thus, the urgent task facing Seoul and Washington now is to prevent additional provocations from the North. It has already made a series of threats this year, including a rejection of the Northern Limit Line, the de facto marine border off the west coast. To stop these provocations, the international community must take sanctions against the North. The UN Security Council discussed the issue on Sunday but failed to reach a conclusion. South Korea, the U.S. and Japan demanded sanctions, but China and Russia objected. Beijing keeps saying the countries involved should remain calm and exercise restraint. But will Beijing take such a laid-back attitude when South Korea and Japan develop nuclear weapons and missiles targeted at them? China wants to become a world power comparable to America. It should keep in mind that by leaving Pyongyang's provocations unpunished, it will only foster suspicions about Chinese leadership in the international community. North Korea depends on China for food and fuel, and the friendship treaty Pyongyang and Beijing signed in 1961 provides the last buttress for the North's security. If China does not prop up North Korea in security and the economy, it grinds to a halt. North Korea can be moved only if China is moved. Success or failure of South Korean and American North Korea policies depends on how they move China. Noting that South Korea is restrained under an agreement with the U.S. not to exceed 300 km in its missile range, Prime Minister Han Seung-soo told a National Assembly session on Monday it was high time that South Korea reviewed "if such a restriction is correct." In 2001, Seoul agreed with Washington to limit the range of missiles to 300 km and the weight of warheads to 500 kg. Seoul accepted the restrictions assuming that Washington, in agreement with Pyongyang on a missile moratorium, would persuade the North to join the international Missile Technology Control Regime. But the missile moratorium has already been broken and the North has demonstrated rocket technology commanding over 3,000 km in range. With the premise of the Seoul-Washington missile agreement broken, we must review our own missile policy. We have to consider calmly whether we consider the problem of the North's nuclear weapons and missiles as a practical threat to our existence and security. In a poll of 1,000 people across the country on Friday and Saturday, 55.4 percent of respondents saw the North's missile launch as aimed at "negotiating with foreign countries," 19.4 percent at the consolidation of the system, 16.6 percent at missile development, and 2.6 percent at space development. The ministry did not include the question whether the missile launch constitutes a threat to South Korea. If that is how the government feels, no wonder people aren't worried. But North Korea is testing dangerous weapons of mass destruction on the Korean Peninsula. If even something small goes awry, South Korea will suffer most. We should not exaggerate the situation, but it's important to realize that the North's nuclear weapons and missiles are not the problem of others but squarely our own. Only when we see that the main concerned party is South Korea can we move toward resolving the problem. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) ALTHOUGH IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR THE UN TO AGREE TO SANCTIONS ON NORTH KOREA... (Hankoook Ilbo, April 7, 2009, Page 35) An emergency UN Security Council meeting on North Korea's rocket launch ended inconclusively yesterday due to difference of views between member nations. Although the outcome was expected, it is difficult not to be disappointed. Fifteen members of the UN Security Council, including five permanent members, were reportedly divided ten to five over whether North Korea's rocket launch SEOUL 00000560 007 OF 008 violated Security Council Resolution 1718, which bans North Korea from developing ballistic missiles. The U.S., the U.K., France and Japan argued for additional stringent sanctions on North Korea, stating that (the North's rocket launch) was a clear violation of the resolution, although China and Russia argued against a violation since the North merely launched a satellite. To penalize the North for defying the warnings from the international community, a unified response from the international community is essential. Although UN Security Council members may well follow their own interpretations and seek their national interests, they should behave more responsibly for the sake of peace and stability in Northeast Asia and the whole world. China and Russia cannot deny that regardless of whether or not North Korea actually launched a satellite, the launch itself has doubled North Korea's long-range ballistic missile capabilities. Based on this fact, through its discussions, the UN Security Council should find the greatest common denominator that takes into account the positions of each member state. Because the ROK is not a member of the UN Security Council, it's level of influence over the Security Council discussions sanctioning the North are limited. However, the ROK can display its diplomacy through closely cooperating with other nations that share similar views. What is important now is not only to send a clear message that North Korea will be punished for its provocative behavior, but also to maintain the momentum of dialogue and negotiations such as the Six-Party Talks. In particular, we should caution against a reemergence of a Cold-War confrontational structure between the ROK, the U.S. and Japan on one side and North Korea, China and Russia on the other. FEATURES -------------- GOV'T TO CONSIDER REVISING MISSILE ACCORD (KBS, April 7, 2009) Prime Minister Han Seung-soo says it is time to consider revising the ROK-U.S. agreement prohibiting the ROK from developing missiles with ranges of over 300 kilometers. The prime minister's announcement came Monday as a reply to lawmaker Jo Sun-hyong's question about whether the government is seeking to revise the limitations on the ROK's missile development program to ranges not exceeding 300 kilometers and warhead loads to less than 500 kilograms. Regarding the ROK's interest in fully joining the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI),Han said that the government has agreed in principle to such a move and only the timing was under discussion. PYONGYANG'S MISSILE GAME: NORTH KOREA WILL DEMAND BROADER NEGOTIATIONS WITH U.S. (JoongAng Ilbo, April 7, 2009, Page 3) By Senior Columnist Kim Young-hie North Korea failed to launch a satellite, but succeeded in launching a long-range rocket. At this rate, it is only a matter of time before North Korea possesses an intercontinental ballistic missile. North Korea deserves to be highly criticized by the international community. However, no matter how harshly we may denounce the North, the rocket launch has brought about certain unavoidable changes. North Korea, which flaunted its long-range ballistic missile capabilities, will now demand from the U.S. high-level nuclear and missile talks within a broader framework. In return for a missile moratorium, the North may demand over 1 billion dollars a year. Should the Six-Party Talks resume, North Korea will try to hold sway in the talks. Immediately before entering the nuclear disablement phase, North Korea practically launched a ballistic missile and now it will drag its feet during the denuclearization process. In SEOUL 00000560 008 OF 008 addition, there is still a possibility that North Korea may conduct an additional nuclear test and develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. At the negotiation table, the situation for the North will be different after April 5 from before. Now, the main crux of the problem is what measures we can employ in response. In other words, the question is what the "end game" is in achieving the denuclearization of North Korea and preventing the export and proliferation of its nuclear and missile programs, as agreed at the Six-Party Talks. All imaginable measures have already been suggested. Among the suggestions are UN Security Council sanctions and the ROK's full participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). However, UN sanctions are not expected to go beyond a resolution. China and Russia claim that it is unfair to impose sanctions on the North for its satellite launch. They argue that many countries launch satellites, and that sanctioning only the North goes against the principle of "equality." This argument may sound logical, but it disregards the North's clear pursuit of a long-range missile test. Nevertheless, realistically the veto power of China and Russia cannot be overcome. The ROK's participation in the PSI cannot be the solution, either. As the ROKG has said, even if we find a North Korean vessel carrying nuclear and missile-related materials but cannot stop it in international waters, joining the PSI carries no meaning. Ultimately, the only real solution to the fallout from the rocket launch is resuming the Six-Party Talks and dialogue between the two Koreas and between North Korea and the U.S. President Lee Myung-bak made meaningful progress by expressing his willingness to send a special envoy to North Korea. The ROK needs to look into every official and unofficial channel to open behind-the-scene negotiations with the North about dispatching a special envoy. Still, this is not sufficient. The ROK should make clear that it intends to discuss the implementation of the June 15 and the October 4 Agreements. Some opposition to this course of action is expected. However, a long pause in the dialogue could be the greatest risk to not taking such steps. A high-ranking ROKG official said in mid-January that he hoped North Korea would cause serious trouble so as to change the status quo. The North met his expectations. Since North Korea precipitated the trouble, the ball is now in our court. This is an opportunity for the ROK to update its North Korea policy in a pragmatic way and for the U.S. to present its North Korea policy. STEPHENS