SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 6, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 10 SEOUL 000552 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; April 6, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo ¶N. Korea Fails to Put Satellite into Orbit... But Seems Successful in Doubling Missile Range JoongAng Ilbo, Dong-a Ilbo, Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Seoul Shinmun, All TVs ¶N. Korea Pushes Ahead with Rocket Launch... North's Satellite Fails to Enter Orbit Segye Ilbo Emergency UN Security Council Meeting Convened to Discuss "Sanctions on North Korea" DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- President Lee Myung-bak, in a National Security Council meeting yesterday, called for the ROKG to respond in a "firm and resolute" manner to North Korea's rocket launch. Presidential Spokesman Lee Dong-kwan was quoted as saying: "We will, however, continue to wait for change from North Korea." (All) According to a Blue House official, the ROKG has decided to fully participate in the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), but that the timing is fluid. (Chosun, Segye) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- North Korea launched a multistage rocket yesterday, but failed to put a satellite into orbit. (All) The North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command, in a joint statement, said, "Stage one of the missile fell into the East Sea. The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean. No object entered orbit." (All) Because the impact point of stage two of the North Korean rocket has increased twofold compared to the 1998 Taepodong-1 missile launch, North Korea seems to have succeeded in expanding its missile range. (Chosun, Hankook) President Barack Obama issued a statement shortly after the North's rocket launch condemning the move as a "provocative act." President Obama also called for UN action. President Obama was quoted as saying: "Rules must be binding. Violations must be punished. Words must mean something." (All) President Obama, however, stopped short of expressing Washington's intention to impose direct sanctions on North Korea, suggesting that the U.S. might resolve the situation through various channels, including bilateral talks with North Korea and the Six-Party Talks or referring the issue to the UN Security Council. (Chosun) The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting earlier this morning (Korean time) to discuss a response to North Korea's rocket launch. The UNSC reconfirmed that the launch is a clear violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1718. (All) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- North Korea's Rocket Launch -------------- North Korea's rocket launch yesterday received prominent coverage, with most of the headlines in ROK newspapers reading: "North Korea Fails to Put Satellite into Orbit." SEOUL 00000552 002 OF 010 The ROK media widely quoted the North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command's statement yesterday: "Stage one of the missile fell into the East Sea. The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean. No object entered orbit." Conservative Chosun Ilbo quoted a senior Foreign Ministry official as saying: "It seems the second and third-stage rockets separated but fell not far from each other." Most of the ROK media, however, noted that the impact point of stage two of the North Korean rocket has increased twofold, compared to when a Taepodong-1 missile was launched in 1998, and surmised that North Korea seems to have succeeded in expanding the range of its missile. The ROK media also said that the rocket launch, estimated to have cost North Korea $300 million, might have been designed to increase North Korea's leverage in negotiations with the U.S. and to consolidate North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's grip on power ahead of the first session of the (North's) 12th Supreme People's Assembly on April 9. The ROK media gave wide attention to President Barack Obama's statement shortly after the North's rocket launch, quoting him as condemning the North Korean move as a "provocative act." President Obama was further quoted as stating: "Rules must be binding. Violations must be punished. Words must mean something. The world must stand together to prevent the spread of these weapons," while calling for action at the UN. In a related development, conservative Chosun Ilbo commented that President Obama stopped short of expressing Washington's intention to directly impose sanctions on North Korea, while interpreting this to suggest that the U.S. might resolve the situation through various channels, including bilateral talks with North Korea and the Six-Party Talks, as well as referring the issue to the UN Security Council. Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo, meanwhile, noted an April 3 remark by Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, that "the door to dialogue with North Korea is always open," and wrote in the headline: "U.S. Prescription for North Korea Likely to be Sanctions for the Short Term and Dialogue for the Mid and Long Term." Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized today: "Even if North Korea failed to put a satellite into orbit, this launch demonstrated that North Korea's ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) capability has reached a certain level. ... North Korea claimed to have succeeded in conducting a nuclear test in 2006... The ROK, by contrast, has given up its nuclear armament capability under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and is restrained by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) from developing missiles with the range of more than 300km and payload of more than 500kg. In other words, the strategic imbalance between the two Koreas in nuclear weapons and missiles are becoming increasingly serious. ... The ROKG, while preparing for sanctions against North Korea's missile launch and the ensuing negotiations with the North in the short term, should come up with a fundamental strategy of how to protect national security under the threat of a North Korea armed with nuclear and long-range missile capabilities." Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo editorialized: "Since the U.S. is expressing willingness to have dialogue with North Korea, in addition to taking a tough response (to the rocket launch),the U.S. is expected to have contact with the North sometime. The problem is that even if bilateral talks are held between the two countries, no one knows when the North will get what it wants. In fact, most of the economic aid to the North comes from ROK and Japan. ... The prospect for an accelerated arms race in North East Asia will also adversely affect North Korea. Japan, which has viewed the North's rocket launch as a good opportunity to build up its military power, will set out to increase its military spending, inevitably prompting China to respond in the same way... In this case, it is evident that China would not condone North Korea's position as much as it does now. The North's missile launch might lift its "national status" but will ultimately not benefit the country." SEOUL 00000552 003 OF 010 Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "North Korea will not stop here. Now that it has a nuclear test and rocket launch under its belt, it is likely to move on to developing a nuclear warhead small enough to be carried by a missile. A second nuclear test is also probable. The first step in resolving the security threat triggered by Pyongyang's provocation is for the international community to reinforce the principle of 'no reward for bad behavior.' It is regrettable that China and Russia simply urged calm and controlled responses immediately after yesterday's launch without citing the provocation's violation of Resolution 1718. ... Their inept action could even invite further provocations by Pyongyang. The U.N. Security Council, which will hold a meeting today, must draft specific measures to make it clear to the North that its provocations will run counter to its interests. " Moderate Hankook Ilbo editorialized: "The international community needs to refrain from overreacting to the North's rocket launch. The international community should make sure that North Korea pays a price for its rocket launch while keeping the Six-Party Talks on track and continuing to pursue talks. North Korea's missile issue should be eventually resolved through dialogue and negotiations. Given this, it is noteworthy that President Obama reiterated that the Six-Party Talks, aside from the rocket launch, should be an important framework for denuclearizing and easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and discussing other issues related to the Korean Peninsula. " Left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun's editorial echoed Hankook Ilbo's views, arguing that this missile launch by North Korea should be used as a catalyst for strengthening negotiations on North Korea's nuclear and missile problems. OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- QUESTIONABLE RESPONSE OF CHINESE PRES. HU (Dong-a Ilbo, April 4, 2009, Page 27) With only a few days left before North Korea's expected launch of a Taepodong-2 missile, Chinese President Hu Jintao said, "Parties involved should stay coolheaded and avoid action that could further complicate the situation." This came around the same time as a comment from Japanese Prime Minister Aso Taro that said, "We need to send a strong message to North Korea via a resolution of the U.N. Security Council." China has not sent a message to the North but expressed its concerns over the responses of related parties. Hu's lopsided comments go against international efforts to deter the North from threatening peace and security in Northeast Asia. It is really disappointing that China's leader has taken a defensive attitude in dealing with international security issues. A missile launch will violate U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718. On October 14, 2006, the council considered the North's nuclear test conducted five days earlier a serious threat to peace. The council unanimously adopted a resolution urging North Korea to suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program. Permanent council member China also supported the resolution. If Beijing keeps standing idle, it is avoiding its responsibility. It makes no sense that China, a permanent council member representing Asia, should turn a blind eye to the North, which poses a threat to the Korean Peninsula as well as to Northeast Asia. China has repeatedly promised to play a constructive role in maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula. If it means what it says, Beijing needs to be more proactive as Pyongyang`s missile launch draws near. As a permanent member of the Security Council, it needs to remind the North that a missile launch will violate a council resolution. Though North Korea says it just plans to test a satellite, China cannot deny that the North`s rocket is a ballistic missile. Chinese silence could encourage the North to go one step further. In other SEOUL 00000552 004 OF 010 words, Beijing's lukewarm stance could spur Pyongyang to wrongly believe that it faces no sanctions even after its missile launch since (the Security Council is divided in its opinion over the launch.) China's response is in stark contrast to that of Russia. In his summit with U.S. President Barack Obama on Wednesday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev expressed concerns over the North's missile launch and urged Pyongyang to exercise restraint. If the council fails to prevent the launch of the long-range missile and impose sanctions on the North afterwards, no country will respect the resolution. China is gloating over its status as a G20 member, along with the U.S. Does it deserve that when it does nothing to prevent the North from launching a missile? It is doubtful that Beijing even deserves a seat on the U.N. Security Council if it makes no effort to deter Pyongyang from threatening peace. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING (JoongAng Ilbo, April 4, 2009, Page 34) North Korea has started fueling its long-range rocket, beginning the countdown for the planned launch. It could happen any day now. ROK President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barack Obama met on Thursday in London and reached an understanding that the launch would violate United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718, and that a unified response would be required from the international community. Obama said the UN Security Council was preparing for new sanctions against the North. As we have emphasized the importance of firm collaboration between Seoul and Washington in dealing with a North Korean rocket launch, we hope that the agreement between the top leaders of the two countries will lead to action. Some raised concerns about Korea-U.S. cooperation, as the American administration had made remarks that sounded as if it had accepted the North's possession of nuclear weapons, and that the launch was for a satellite and therefore the rocket would not be intercepted. Likely aware of this concern, President Obama made it clear that neither nuclear possession nor proliferation would be accepted from the North. He also declared that North Korea wouldn't be able to create a crack in the long alliance between Seoul and Washington. He promised to have transparent and comprehensive discussions with the ROK on implementing a North Korea policy. He made a timely remark when Pyongyang wanted to tighten its ties with Washington while isolating Seoul. As for approval of a Seoul-Washington free trade agreement, a pending issue for both countries, President Obama said Washington intends to move the deal forward. This remark gave us the expectation that the U.S. stance on the FTA may become more flexible, although we need to wait and see. As for the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. president said it was an issue that the international community needed to pay attention to as a whole, and officially asked for Korea's support. The issues that Korea and the U.S. had beneath the surface have finally emerged, and we need to make our stance clear. The two leaders met only for around 30 minutes while they attended the G20 summit meeting, so it would have been difficult to discuss all pending issues thoroughly. But Obama invited Lee to the U.S. in June. We hope that the U.S. will have finished examining its North Korea policy by then and that the ROK will have also decided its position on the issues, so the summer meeting will be deeper and SEOUL 00000552 005 OF 010 more thorough. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) A NEW SECURITY LANDSCAPE (JoongAng Ilbo, April 6, 2009, Page 46) North Korea's rocket launch has shifted the security landscape on the Korean Peninsula, because we now must accept the reality that it is capable of launching intercontinental ballistic missiles. North Korea carried out a nuclear test in 2006. Whether it succeeded is still in doubt. However, some people believe North Korea is equipped with nuclear warheads. North Korea's armaments are rapidly strengthening (leading to the possibility of a military imbalance.) In this regard, we are confronted with mounting security threats. The people and the government should recognize the growing threat and take the lead in tackling these changes. First, we should thoroughly examine (the possibility of) reorganizing our military capacity, which is now mainly comprised of conventional forces such as fighters, field guns, tanks and naval vessels. The North's asymmetrical strategy cannot be dealt with through conventional forces alone. Thus the ROK should also develop our nuclear and long-range missile capacity. At present, our military deterrent mainly depends on America's pledge to defend us and on its nuclear umbrella, which proved trustworthy during the Cold War. But since the Cold War, the North's ability to wage asymmetrical war has increased. Against this backdrop, measures should be devised to re-examine America's nuclear umbrella pledge and to guarantee the implementation of the pledge in an emergency. Second, we should redouble our efforts to dissuade North Korea from strengthening its military forces in the long term. Anti-proliferation endeavors led by the U.S. over the past two decades have resulted in a series of failures. But the failures so far should not lead us to give up. Rather, it is time to draw up a new plan with more dimensions. We must develop ways to offset our security concerns, to satisfy America as our closest ally, and to reassure neighboring countries such as Japan, China and, of course, North Korea itself. Finally, the people must adjust their perspective and become aware of the changed security landscape on the Korean Peninsula. The reaction of the ROK people to the provocative acts by North Korea over the more than six decades since the tragedy of national division has been confused, swinging wildly between numbness and hypersensitivity and caught up in the ideological divisions of Korean society. The Korean government and civil society should make concerted efforts to gain a precise perception of our security situation and prevent public opinion from disrupting national policy. In particular, an active policy approach by the government would be of great significance. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) VIOLATING NK'S OWN INTERESTS (Dong-a Ilbo, April 6, 2009, Page 31) North Korea went ahead yesterday with its provocative rocket launch, which poses a grave threat to world peace and stability. If the long-range rocket that flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean carried nuclear weapons, it could attack not only the ROK and Japan but also the U.S. A North Korean attack using weapons of mass SEOUL 00000552 006 OF 010 destruction and such weapons' proliferation have become a real threat to world peace. It is like living with a ticking time bomb planted by the North. All discussion on the launch should begin with the act being a violation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1718. Given the North's past behavior as a rogue country and the danger inherent in the rocket launch, the international community must respond wisely to this provocation even if the projectile turns out to be a satellite as the North claims. Otherwise, the world will bring misfortune on itself. The U.N. Security Council slapped Pyongyang with U.N. Resolution 1695 for launching its Taepodong-1 missile in July 2006. U.N. Resolution 1718 was passed after the North conducted its nuclear test in October the same year, under the authority of Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter, which defines actions against breach of peace or an act of aggression. The world body will defy its raison d`tre if the North's worsening provocations are left unsanctioned. North Korea will not stop here. Now that it has a nuclear test and rocket launch under its belt, it is likely to move on to developing a nuclear warhead small enough to be carried by a missile. A second nuclear test is also probable. These scenarios have been put forward by the daily Chosun Sinbo, the communist regime's de facto mouthpiece. The paper also mentioned that Pyongyang could sell its long-range missile technology overseas. The North Korean Foreign Ministry warned that putting the launch up for discussion at the U.N. Security Council could end the Six-Party Talks and reverse denuclearization efforts. Against this backdrop, the world must no longer tolerate such brazen acts by the peace-threatening regime. The first step in resolving the security threat triggered by Pyongyang's provocation is for the international community to reinforce the principle of "no reward for bad behavior." U.S. President Barack Obama denounced the launch as a "provocative act" that poses a threat to all countries. Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso also said the launch cannot be "disregarded." The European Union urged the North to end its ballistic missile and nuclear programs while condemning the launch. The U.N. Security Council, which will hold a meeting today, must draft specific measures to make it clear to the North that its provocations will run counter to its interests. It is regrettable that China and Russia simply urged calm and controlled responses immediately after yesterday's launch without citing the provocation's violation of Resolution 1718. The irresponsible initial response by Beijing and Moscow reflects the divide within the Security Council. Their inept action could even invite further provocations by Pyongyang. As permanent members of the council, they should place world peace before their relations with the North. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) ROK PEOPLE SHOULD STAND UNITED AGAINST NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR AND MISSILE PROGRAMS (Dong-a Ilbo, April 6, 2009, Page 31) North Korea's long-range missile launch reconfirmed the failure of the past decade's Sunshine Policy, under which the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun Administrations provided North Korea with about 5 billion dollars of aid including unofficial assistance. The Lee Myung-bak Administration should learn a lesson from the results of the Roh Moo-hyun Administration's consistently lukewarm response to North Korea's July 2006 missile launch. Even a week afterwards, President Roh did not say a single word against the missile launch. He was also passive regarding the adoption of a U.N. resolution. Following the example of the Kim Dae-jung Administration, the Roh Administration continued to provide generous handouts while being sensitive to the North Korea's every need, but was only rewarded with the North's nuclear test three months later on October 9, ¶2006. SEOUL 00000552 007 OF 010 In launching the long-range rocket in addition to its ongoing nuclear testing, North Korea abandoned any pretense for its opposition of the ROK's full participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Although North Korea has threatened to construe the ROK's participation in the PSI as a declaration of war, the ROKG must actively consider pursuing the PSI and the Missile Defense (MD) system at an early stage to protect its people and territory. The ROKG should make every effort to build up its defense capabilities against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats by strengthening the ROK-U.S. combined defense system. While North Korea was launching a rocket yesterday, the UN World Food Programme announced that, "Approximately 40 percent of North Korea's population, an estimated 8.7 million people, will urgently need food assistance." With the 3 billion dollars that reportedly went into the rocket launch, North Korea could have bought 1 million tons of rice, sufficient to feed its people for an entire year. MINIMIZING AFTEREFFECTS OF NORTH KOREA'S LAUNCH (Hankyoreh Shinmun, April 6, 2009, Page 23) Yesterday, North Korea carried out the launch of its Kwangmyongsong-2 experimental communications satellite. This has been a highly unfortunate situation since, in so doing, North Korea has spurned demands from the international community to halt the launch. However, it is fortunate that a military clash that has resulted from the matter, such as a launch of an interception missile. It is now time to work towards resolving this incident and minimizing its negative repercussions. The governments of several nations have now confirmed that the object launched by North Korea was a satellite and not a ballistic missile, which is what North Korean authorities have been asserting all along. However, this does not mean that the international community is any less concerned about the rocket technology used to launch the satellite, as it could easily be transformed into long-distance missile technology. Consequently, this launch indicates that North Korea possesses intercontinental ballistic missile technology. North Korea is not trusted within the international community as a result of its actions to date regarding nuclear weapons and missiles. The mere fact that a nation that has already carried out a nuclear test possesses such a technology presents a latent threat to the entire global community. This launch will only further deepen this distrust. The United Nations (UN) Security Council has begun discussions on a plan to respond to this launch. The position of the ROK, the U.S. and Japan is that the launch represents a clear violation of Security Council Resolution 1718. Adopted in October 2006 in the immediate aftermath of North Korea's nuclear test, this resolution demands that North Korea "suspend all activities related to its ballistic missile program." Hard-liners in the U.S. and Japan are calling for either stronger sanctions against North Korea based on this resolution or for the adoption of a new resolution. But adopting such a course of action will not be easily accomplished, as Russia and China do not feel that a satellite launch should be subject to sanctions. There is also a considerable contingent that maintains that this launch should not be taken as an act of provocation by North Korea, but should be instead used as a catalyst towards strengthening discussions on nuclear weapons and missiles. The unreasonable pursuit of sanctions in this situation could make the situation worse and get us away from the original intention of containing a threat, perhaps even get in the way of the goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and building peace. North Korea's launch smacks strongly of an attempt to secure internal unity in advance of the first meeting of the 12th Supreme People's Assembly. This means that North Korea's system is so weak that its leaders feel they must use this launch to demonstrate their power to their people. An immoderate response from related nations SEOUL 00000552 008 OF 010 could fan this feeling of crisis within North Korea's leadership and send the situation spinning in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, Japan's exchange with North Korea registered on war-attack mode, aiming to garner support for turning Japan into a militarized superpower, and appeared every bit as much for political show as North Korea's actions. The possibility to resolve the North Korean nuclear weapons and missile issue through dialogue and negotiation still exists. What we do not want is for the nations involved to respond by narrowing the possibility for discussions to take place, thereby becoming complicit in North Korea's mistake of carrying out a satellite launch. There are times when pressure on North Korea is needed, but we must not forget that it is discussion that solves problems in the end. At this time, the Barack Obama Administration in the U.S. has not yet finished reexamining its North Korea policy. It must avoid endangering the tone of its policy of wanting comprehensive discussions with North Korea by responding in haste to the satellite launch. Now that North Korea has launched its long-distance rocket, we cannot continue on as if nothing has happened, but we should try to minimize the aftereffects. If the situation surrounding this satellite launch drags on, it is likely that everyone will suffer. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) ¶N. KOREA'S MISSILE CAPACITY IS A SERIOUS THREAT (Chosun Ilbo, April 6, 2009, Page 31) North Korea launched a long-range rocket at 11:30 a.m. on Sunday from Musudan-ri, North Hamgyong Province. North Korea claimed it was now one of 10 countries in the world to independently put a satellite into orbit. The government said the rocket was a satellite launch vehicle judging from the trajectory of the projectile, so even if the satellite failed to enter orbit, North Korea demonstrated to the world that its intercontinental ballistic missile technology has reached a certain level. The cost of the rocket launch is estimated at more than US$300 million. That's more than 10 percent of North Korea's annual trade volume, which is less than $3 billion. The country suffers a shortage of more than a million tons of food a year. North Korea could have bought enough food overseas at last summer's prices to cover the entire shortfall for three years for the money it spent on the rocket launch. It invested huge sums of money while starving its own people to proclaim its might to the world as its new parliament convenes on Thursday to reappoint Kim Jong-il as chairman of the National Defense Commission. With the launch, North Korea may possibly be saying it now has a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska. In 2006, North Korea claimed to have conducted a nuclear test. We are witnessing the unfolding of the nightmare scenario of a nuclear-equipped North Korea with long-range missile capabilities. The ROK, meanwhile, has relinquished its ability to possess nuclear weapons and is prohibited from developing missiles that can travel more than 300 km and carry more than a 500 kg warhead, according to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the Missile Technology Control Meeting. The ROK and North Korea are seeing a growing strategic imbalance in terms of nuclear weapons and missile technology. The ROK, the U.S. and Japan condemned the rocket launch and vowed that North Korea would face "corresponding measures." In an emergency statement during his visit to the Czech Republic, U.S. President Barack Obama said North Korea had isolated itself even further by committing this provocative act and added that this issue would be addressed by the UN Security Council. The UNSC did begin discussing the launch on Sunday afternoon and a SEOUL 00000552 009 OF 010 spokeswoman for China, which has veto power as a permanent member, said, "We hope related parties stay calm and exercise restraint, appropriately deal with it and together maintain peace and stability in this region." China and Russia are said to support the handling of the rocket launch by the UNSC but oppose sanctions. How would they react if the ROK and Japan now seek to secure advanced nuclear weapons and missile technology in the name of self-defense? Will they want to remain calm and exercise restraint? The U.S. held talks with North Korea when it first launched a long-range missile in 1998 and right after the nuclear test in 2006. Stephen Bosworth, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, said Saturday that North Korea policy must combine carrots and sticks, adding that Washington was in close consultation with the ROK and Japan so that the North can return to the Six-Party Talks after the missile issue calms down. North Korea then demanded the payment of $1 billion a year in return for giving up its missile program, on top of a deal signed in Geneva in 1994 during the Clinton Administration guaranteeing two light-water reactors and 500,000 tons of heavy oil each year. While coming up with short-term measures such as sanctions, our government must devise a fundamental strategy to protect the nation's security and to manage North Korea's threat from its nuclear and long-range missile capabilities. As seen in the unusual Kim Jong-il succession controversy following his health problems last year, the North faces an unstable period where anything can happen at any time. It would be terrifying should North Korea veer out of control while equipped with nuclear weapons and missiles. The ROK-U.S. alliance is based on a mutual defense treaty drawn up in 1953, when the prospect of a nuclear and missile-equipped North Korea was beyond the wildest imagination. Moreover, that alliance has deteriorated over the past 10 years. The two allies must come up with a basic set of measures to deal with a North Korea that now claims to have developed long-range missile technology on top of its nuclear capability. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) NORTH KOREA SHOULD PAY THE PRICE FOR ROCKET LAUNCH (Hankook Ilbo, April 6, 2009, Page 39) Yesterday North Korea launched a rocket. The ROK cannot but voice regret and disappointment over North Korea's reckless action which was taken in defiance of international warnings. After an emergency National Security Council meeting presided by President Lee Myung-bak, the ROKG issued a statement strongly condemning the North's missile launch as a provocative act threatening the stability and peace of the Korean Peninsula and North East Asia. U.S. President Obama, on his tour of Europe, declared North Korea's rocket launch to be a violation of (international) rules and called for a strong international response. Leaders of the U.S. and 27 European countries adopted a joint statement criticizing North Korea. North Korean media repeatedly reported that a Eunha-2 rocket successfully put satellite Kwangmyongsong-2 into orbit within 9 minutes and 2 seconds after being launched. But the ROKG and the U.S. military officials assess that the rocket's second stage along with the third stage fell into the Pacific Ocean and the satellite failed to enter orbit. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who intended to demonstrate the North's missile capability by launching a long-range rocket before its new parliament convenes, suffered a setback. However, the fact that the second and third stages flew over 3, 000km carries great significance. This proves that North Korea has almost acquired intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) capabilities. That is why, even if the rocket the North fired is confirmed as a satellite, North Korea is not likely to avoid SEOUL 00000552 010 OF 010 sanctions and criticism from the international community. The United Nations called an emergency session at the request of Japan on April 6 within less than 24 hours after the North's rocket launch, and discussed countermeasures. Most of the UN Security Council members, such as the U.S. and France, argue that the rocket launch is a blatant violation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1718 and that measures should be taken accordingly. The level of sanctions will depend on the attitude of China and Russia. Measures, in some form, will be taken to hold North Korea responsible for its rocket launch. North Korea threatened to boycott the Six-Party Talks even if the UN Security Council attempts to discuss its rocket launch. However North Korea's excessive backlash against the international community's unanimous voice could isolate North Korea further. The international community needs to restrain from overreacting to the North's rocket launch. The international community should make sure that North Korea pays a price for its rocket launch while keeping the Six-Party Talks on track and continuing to pursue talks. North Korea's missile issue should be eventually resolved through dialogue and negotiations. Given this, it is noteworthy that President Obama reiterated that the Six-Party Talks, aside from the rocket launch, should be an important framework for denuclearizing and easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula and discussing other issues related to the Korean Peninsula. The ROKG should maintain close cooperation with related countries such as the U.S., falling into step with the international community. The ROKG made the right decision when it said it will bide its time regarding full participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI),unlike its original position that it will participate fully in the PSI aimed at preventing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction . Full participation in the PSI should be decided cautiously by comprehensively considering discussions in the UN Security Council and future inter-Korean relations. The ROKG should respond firmly but needs to exert farsighted prudence and wisdom. NORTH KOREA SHOULD BE PUNISHED FOR ROCKET LAUNCH (JoongAng Ilbo, April 6, 2009, Page 46) North Korea intends to flaunt its "long-range capability" to U.S. President Obama, who has managed to disregard the North Korean nuclear issue since his inauguration, and bring him back to bilateral dialogue. Since the U.S. is expressing willingness to have dialogue with North Korea, in addition to taking a tough response (to the rocket launch),the U.S. is expected to have contact with the North sometime. The problem is that even if bilateral talks are held between the two countries, no one knows when the North will get what it wants. In fact, most of the economic aid to the North comes from the ROK and Japan. In particular, there are countless number of obstacles in the path before North Korea can (realize) its desire to "win recognition as a nuclear state and diplomatic normalization with the U.S." Even if the U.S. decides to grant the North its wishes by any chance, the ROK and Japan will never allow it. The prospect for an accelerated arms race in North East Asia will also adversely affect North Korea. Japan, which has viewed the North's rocket launch as a good opportunity to build up its military power, will set out to increase its military spending, inevitably prompting China to respond in the same way. This would put China in an embarrassing position. (If this occurs,) it is evident that China would not condone North Korea' position as much as it does now. The North's missile launch might lift its "national status" but will ultimately not benefit the country. STEPHENS