SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; March 10, 2009

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SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; March 10, 2009

TOP HEADLINES
--------------

Chosun Ilbo, Dong-a Ilbo

N. Korea Cuts Off Military Communication Lines with ROK, Virtually
"Detaining" 620 ROK People in the North
JoongAng Ilbo
621 ROK People Stranded in N. Korea
Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo,
Seoul Shinmun, All TVs
80 ROK People, Scheduled to Return from Kaesong Industrial Complex,
Fail to Cross the Border after the North Korean Action


DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
--------------

A spokesman for the General Staff of the (North) Korean People's
Army, in a March 9 statement, said that North Korea will cut off
military communication lines with the ROK and that they will remain
disconnected for the duration of March 9-20 ROK-U.S. joint military
drills. (All)


The North Korean military also vowed to retaliate against attempts
to intercept its planned "satellite" launch, arguing: "Shooting down
our satellite (which was designed) for peaceful purposes will mean a
war." (All)


The ROKG denounced the North's action yesterday as a violation of
inter-Korean agreements on military communications, and strongly
urged Pyongyang to withdraw the measure. (All)


According to the ROK Unification Ministry, there were a total of 620
(621) ROK people in North Korea as of yesterday, including 573 at
the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The ROK people would likely remain
stranded in the North at least until the ROK-U.S. joint drills end
on March 20. (All)


Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea
Policy, was quoted as saying after a series of meetings with ROK
officials in Seoul yesterday: "Obviously, this (the North Korean
action) is something that we regret. We think that improved
communications between the two Koreas must in the longer run be a
key component of the Six-Party effort to reduce tension and to bring
about the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." Ambassador
Bosworth also made it clear that he has no plans to visit North
Korea on this trip to the region. (JoongAng, Dong-a, Hankook,
Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul)
Local experts, meanwhile, raised the possibility of ROK workers in
North Korea becoming "hostages" if an armed conflict occurs between
the two Koreas. (Chosun)


Experts also viewed the North Korean action as designed to grab the
Obama Administration's attention in order to get the upper hand in
future negotiations, as well as to put pressure on the ROK. (Dong-a,
Seoul)


INTERNATIONAL NEWS
--------------

North Korea released the names of newly elected lawmakers yesterday,
but all of leader Kim Jong-il's three sons were "absent" from the
list, despite speculation about the possible political debut of
Kim's youngest son, Jung-un, by election to the Supreme People's
Assembly. (All)


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In a related development, an ROK Unification Ministry official
commented that this development might be intended to quell
speculation on a possible power transition in the North and to
tighten leader Kim Jong-il's grip on power. (Chosun)


MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------

-North Korea
--------------
The ROK media gave top front-and inside-page play to North Korea's
announcement yesterday that it will cut off military communication
lines with the ROK during the March 9-20 ROK-U.S. joint military
drills. North Korea was further cited as having vowed to retaliate
against attempts to intercept its planned "satellite" launch,
arguing: "Shooting down our satellite (which was designed) for
peaceful purposes will mean a war."

The ROK media took special note of the safety of about 621 ROK
workers in North Korea, including 573 at the Kaesong Industrial
Complex. The ROK media reported that some 80 ROK people, scheduled
to return yesterday from the inter-Korean industrial complex, failed
to cross the border after the North Korean action, and surmised that
the ROK workers would likely remain stranded in the North at least
until the ROK-U.S. joint drills end on March 20.

Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea
Policy, was widely quoted as expressing regret over the North Korean
move, saying after a series of meetings with ROK officials in Seoul
yesterday: "Obviously, this (the North Korean move) is something
that we regret. We think that improved communications between the
two Koreas must in the longer run be a key component of the
Six-Party effort to reduce tension and to bring about the
denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." Ambassador Bosworth was
further quoted as making it clear that he has no plans to visit
North Korea on this trip to the region.

Citing local experts, most of the ROK media raised the possibility
of ROK workers in North Korea becoming "hostages" if an armed
conflict occurs between the two Koreas. The media also viewed the
North Korean action as designed to grab the Obama Administration's
attention in order to get the upper hand in future negotiations, as
well as to put pressure on the ROK.

The ROK media also gave wide attention to the North's release
yesterday of the names of newly elected lawmakers, noting that all
of leader Kim Jong-il's three sons were "absent" from the list,
contrary to speculation about the possible political debut of Kim's
youngest son, Jung-un, by election to the Supreme People's Assembly.
Chosun Ilbo quoted an ROK Unification Ministry official as
commenting that this development might be intended to quell
speculation on a possible power transition in the North and to
tighten leader Kim Jong-il's grip on power.

JoongAng Ilbo editorialized: "Cutting off military communications
means that the last channel for the two Koreas to communicate in
case of an emergency has disappeared. If an accidental clash takes
place between the two Koreas, a failure to communicate might mean a
war. Since the Lee Myung-bak Administration was launched, Pyongyang
has put pressure on Seoul by expelling South Korean authorities from
the industrial complex, reducing the number of South Korean workers
stationed there and imposing strict limits on land travel in and out
of the North. Now it has taken the extreme measure of paralyzing
the transportation of manpower and goods. The North says that the
blackout will only be in effect during the military exercise, but if
the situation worsens, the safety of South Korean workers stationed
in the industrial complex could be seriously jeopardized." Dong-a
Ilbo's editorial argued: "North Korea... blocked the return of 80
South Koreans who sought to go home from the inter-Korean industrial
complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong. This
'detention' was a de facto provocation. This is quite a precarious
action that a normal country would not consider. Even a small

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mistake can lead to confrontation in a stand-off situation. To
prevent this, military communications were set up. The North must
be afraid of how the international community as well as the ROK and
the U.S. will respond to the cutoff of the hotline."

-Stem Cell Research
--------------

JoongAng Ilbo's editorial noted President Barack Obama's
announcement to allow federal funding for stem cell research,
stating: "The U.S. government is working to create new development
plans with the latest technologies, and it seems as though Obama's
policies are designed to do more than simply overcome the economic
crisis. They contain the beginnings of a sketch for what industry
in the 21st century can become. The Administration's first
experiments involve the biotechnology industry, the use of
alternative energy and stem cell research. Though there are doubts
as to whether the U.S. will succeed, it is more likely that when a
country as powerful as the U.S. starts new projects, other countries
will follow along. So, too, should the ROK be on the alert for
industry innovations."

The Obama Administration's Engagement Policy
Chosun Ilbo ran an inside-page report on the Obama Administration's
"engagement policy" to bring U.S. enemies to the dialogue table.
Citing a March 9 Wall Street Journal report, Chosun noted that U.S.
friends and allies in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are looking
"glumly" at the Obama Administration's recent series of conciliatory
gestures toward Iran, Syria and Russia. Chosun headlined its story:
"Obama's Embrace of Enemies Makes Allies Anxious"


OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
--------------
A New Low for Kim Jong-il
(Dong-a Ilbo, March 10, 2009, Page 31)

North Korea cut the inter-Korean military hotline yesterday and
blocked the return of 80 South Koreans who sought to go home from
the inter-Korean industrial complex in the North Korean border city
of Kaesong. This detention was a de facto provocation. Fears are
growing over the safety of 573 South Koreans remaining in the
complex. The North, which has raised bilateral tension since a
South Korean tourist at the Mount Kumgang resort was shot dead last
year, is now threatening the security of South Koreans in the
complex. Seoul must ensure their safety at all costs.

The North severed the hotline because of the start of the South
Korea-U.S. joint military drills Key Resolve and Foal Eagle. The
North had been notified by the United Nations Command about the
exercises and was invited to observe (the exercises),yet Pyongyang
blasted them as an exercise to invade North Korea. This is quite a
precarious action that a normal country could not consider. Even a
small mistake can lead to confrontation in a stand-off situation.
To prevent this, military communications were set up. The North
must be scared of how the international community, as well as South
Korea and the United States, will respond to the cutoff of the
hotline. Severing communications and detaining residents in the
complex nullified the agreement on military guarantees for transit,
communication and customs clearance in inter-Korean restricted
areas, and (also nullified) an accord guaranteeing South Koreans'
entrance, stay and personal security. Whether the North can force
the South to observe the 2000 and 2007 inter-Korean agreements is
unclear. North Korea will be making a mistake if its actions are
geared to divert its people's attention away from their economic
difficulty.

Kim Jong-il must think hard why Seoul is not budging toward
Pyongyang's repeated threats and provocations. Even after a limit
was placed on South Korean visits to the complex in December last
year, the number of North Korean workers there was raised to 38,000.
South Korea knows that North Korea badly needs the complex despite
its provocative words.


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Not surprisingly, North Koreans approved candidates designated by
their government in the North's parliamentary elections. Few
countries are as undemocratic as North Korea in the 21th century.
Who can believe North Korea's talk of sovereignty and peace when it
lies so much?

The South Korean government must do its best to secure the safety of
South Koreans in the business complex, while calmly dealing with the
North's threats. Rather than provoking Pyongyang, Seoul should
cooperate with the international community to get the detained
people home.

* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.

Protect Kaesong Workers
(JoongAng Ilbo, March 10, 2009, Page 26)

North Korea has unilaterally severed a military communications
channel, the only means of communication between the South and the
North, citing the South Korea-U.S. annual military exercise Key
Resolve as the reason. Consequently, travel by South Korean workers
who pass through the military demarcation line to go to and from the
Kaesong Industrial Complex hasstopped. Around 700 civilians who
were about to go to the industrial park yesterday could not do so,
as they did not receive approval from the North. On the same day
some 80 South Koreans had difficulty returning home from the North.
This is a serious situation, and we cannot rule out the possibility
that 500 or so South Korean workers who remain in the Kaesong
complex may become hostages.

As South Korea and the United States have repeatedly emphasized, Key
Resolve is a drill for defensive purposes in case of a sudden North
Korean military attack on the South. This is not the first year
we've held the exercise. The South Korean and U.S. military
authorities even invited the North Korean military to watch the
drill.

Cutting off military communications means that the last channel for
the South and the North to communicate in case of an emergency has
disappeared. If an accidental clash takes place between the two
Koreas, a failure to communicate might mean a war.

Since the Lee Myung-bak Administration was launched, Pyongyang has
put pressure on Seoul by expelling South Korean authorities from the
industrial park, reducing the number of South Korean workers
stationed there and imposing strict limits on land travel in and out
of the North. Now it has taken the extreme measure of paralyzing
the transportation of manpower and goods. The North says that the
blackout will only be in effect during the military exercise but, if
the situation worsens, the safety of South Korean workers stationed
in the industrial park could be seriously jeopardized.

The Kaesong Industrial Complex, the symbol of economic cooperation
between the South and the North, has stayed on track despite ups and
downs. Ninety-three South Korean companies employ 39,000 North
Korean workers there. Last year, the industrial park enjoyed $250
million in production, up 36 percent from the previous year. But
now we must not cling to its meaning as a symbol. Nothing is more
important than the safety of our people. We must take a determined
stand and even consider closing the industrial complex completely if
that becomes unavoidable (in order to protect) their safety.

* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.

Safe Return of ROK Workers at Kaesong Industrial Complex Should be
Ensured
(Hankook Ilbo, March 10, 2009, Page 35)

If North Korea continues to bar ROK people stranded in the Kaesong
Industrial Complex from returning, this will be an intolerable act
of detention. For any reason, it is unforgivable to restrict border
crossings of civilians who have nothing to do with military drill or

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political issues. North Korea should see that ROK workers are
returned safely as soon as possible.

Many Koreans feel anxious about North Korea's repeated threats of
merciless military retaliation. However, observers say that it
would be difficult for the North to carry out a military move at the
risk of its escalating into an all-out war. North Korea's threat,
which has reached its climax, can be an expression of fear about Key
Resolve, a military exercise mobilizing a large scale of military
force and firepower. We should not respond to North Korea's threat
too sensitively.

Sealing off Kaesong Is the Wrong Move
(Chosun Ilbo, March 10, 2009, Page 27)

The transit of personnel and materials in and out of the Kaesong
Industrial Complex has been completely halted with North Korea's
abrupt announcement early Monday morning that it would sever all
military communication channels with South Korea.

A spokesman for the General Staff of the People's Army said in a
statement that the communist country would "take much tougher
military control over the joint-management areas in the East and
West Sea in order to guarantee the safety of these areas," trying
hard to make it seem as if their moves were defensive in nature.

The military drills which North Korea is citing as problems are the
"Key Resolve" and "Foal Eagle" exercises, which are annual defense
drills that South Korea carries out with the U.S. and about which it
has given the North ample notice. But North Korea is ratcheting up
tensions, with its military issuing a combat readiness stance and
severing its only communication link with South Korea, something it
has not done before.

Other countries such as China and Russia conduct military drills
with their allies. And other neighboring countries, excluding North
Korea, are not citing any problems with the latest exercises. The
observations of South Korean and foreign analysts - that North Korea
is ratcheting up tensions to unite its people under a common cause -
gain more credence considering that North Koreais in the midst of a
regime reshuffle, launching its 12th Supreme People's Assembly.

Feeling the direct impact of the North Korean blockade are the 90 or
so small and mid-sized South Korean businesses that have set up
manufacturing operations in the Kaesong complex. On Monday alone,
726 workers and 373 vehicles were unable to enter the complex. The
longer the blockade drags on, (the more) problems those businesses
will face in manufacturing products there and (the more money they
will) lose due to delays in meeting delivery schedules. But the
damage is not restricted only to the South Korean businesses and the
39,000 North Korean workers who make a living there. North Korea
has once again shown the world its penchant for unilaterally
scrapping bilateral agreements. What is clear is that the move has
diminished the merits of the Kaesong complex and undermined the
credibility of the entire country.

By ratcheting up tensions at a time when the administration of U.S.
President Barack Obama is in the midst of reexamining its entire
global policies, including the North Korean nuclear dilemma, the
North may succeed to some degree in diverting the world's attention
onto the Korean Peninsula. But its typical method of grabbing
attention by overturning the table leads to more losses than gains.
It only diminishes North Korea's international credibility by
further consolidating its image as a troublemaker intent on creating
more problems on top of its nuclear program.

* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.

No Communication Line between North and South Korea
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, March 10, 2009, Page 23)

Inter-Korean relations are getting worse every day. North and South
have no open line of communication now because the contact link

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between military officials on both sides has been shut down by the
Northerners because it is angry about the U.S.- Republic of Korea
"Key Resolve" military exercises (March 9-20). The wireless hotline
between naval ships was already non-functional, so all means of
communication between North and South have broken down. You get the
feeling we are returning to the Cold War days when officials had
almost little regular contact and attacked each other with
loudspeakers, yelling propaganda across the DMZ.

The closing of the militaries' communications line is having an
effect on companies at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, which used
that channel to handle the procedures for getting people and goods
across the borders. Hundreds of Southerners scheduled to visit the
North yesterday were unable to go, and Southerners in Kaesong are
being inconvenienced, (with the result) that the Kaesong Industrial
Complex could be hurt, just as tours to Kaesong City and Mount
Kumgang came to a screeching halt. Southern companies operating
factories there are going to become increasingly anxious about their
investments. There can be no justification for the North's
one-sided decision to hold the industrial complex as leverage.

North Korea is limiting this latest action to the period of the
ROK-U.S. 'Key Resolve' military exercises. Some observers hold that
Pyongyang is not going to do anything really extreme as long as it
has hopes of improving relations with the U.S. Not that this latest
development should be taken lightly, either. This North Korean move
is an extension of its March 5 warning that ROK civilian airplanes
would no longer be allowed through the North's airspace and the
earlier declaration that it would invalidate all inter-Korean
military agreements. So it is possible that North Korea could play
yet another card, even after the military exercises are over, if
changes are not brought to the current, chilly relations between the
two Koreas."

Key Resolve is a yearly military exercise that assumes (that a) war
(has begun),which replaces the RSOI (Reception, Staging, Onward
Movements and Integration) exercises by the U.S. and South that were
held until 2007, and the old Team Spirit exercises that were held
as regular joint war games up to the year 1994. The North attacked
the exercises during the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun
Administrations, too, but it never cut off communications and the
North Korean People's Army command never ordered war-preparation
stance. The fact that the North's (current) attitude is similar to
it its attitude during the Team Spirit exercises, then, is an
indicator as to how poor relations are right now. Once relations
go sour, you have a vicious cycle in which one action leads to more
serious ones.

The South Korean government seems to be waiting for Pyongyang to get
tired of its current tactics. There is nothing much left to do but
anger and offend each other if relations get to the point of no
return. This is not the way to go about coexistence and mutual
prosperity. The social, economic, and international political cost
to be paid by both sides is just too great. The Seoul government
needs to find some solutions before more time is lost.

* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.


FEATURES
--------------
570 S. Korean Staff Detained in Biz Complex in NK
(Dong-a Ilbo, March 10, 2009, Front Page)

North Korea's cutoff of an inter-Korean military hotline yesterday
left some 570 South Korean staff in the Kaesong Industrial Complex
stranded.

This came as South Korea and the United States began their annual
joint military exercises Key Resolve and Foal Eagle.

A spokesman for the (North) Korean People`s Army issued a statement
around 3 a.m., saying, "We will put stricter military control on

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areas in the East and West Seas jointly controlled by the two Koreas
that are open, while war exercises to invade us are conducted. We
will cut off inter-Korean military communication."

Pyongyang did not respond to Seoul's three attempts at contact via
military communication in the morning. Last year, North Korea
severed the direct inter-Korean hotline at the border village of
Panmunjom Nov. 12.

The North's unilateral decision forced a stop to exchanges at the
inter-Korean transit office, which took place six times a day under
communications measures guaranteed by the military authorities of
both Koreas.

The Unification Ministry in Seoul said 242 South Koreans and 163
vehicles scheduled to come back to the South through the
inter-Korean transit office in the afternoon failed to head to the
South. In addition, 726 South Koreans and 373 cars were barred from
entering the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun said, "Generally, 1,200 to 1,300
South Korean businessmen and workers stay in the complex, but many
of them came to the South over the weekend to spend time with their
families. As of Monday, 573 people and 380 cars remain in the
North."

"Pyongyang must retract this decision in order to guarantee the free
flow of people to Kaesong and the Mount Kumgang area and (the free
flow of) communications. The government will take necessary action
immediately to guarantee our people's safety and help business go
smoothly."

The North hit back, saying, "We will immediately respond to a
ballistic attack aimed at our satellite (which was designed) for
peace purposes with the strongest military means. An attack on our
"peace-intended" satellite will mean war."

The North's army also issued a separate "report" on the beginning of
the joint military drills, saying, "We sent an order to retaliate if
even a spark of fire is seen in our republic's air, land or sea."

* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.

Bosworth Says, "Korean Peninsula Should Be Denuclearized,"
Indicating that the Six-Party Talks and U.S.-North Korea Dialogue
Will Go Hand in Hand
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, March 10, 2009, Page 4)

By Reporter Lee Je-hoon
Closed-door meeting with President Lee

U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth
appeared in front of domestic and foreign reporters on the second
floor of the annex of the Central Government Complex at Doryum-dong,
Seoul, at 6 p.m. on March 9. This effectively marked the end of his
tour of China, Japan, and the ROK, which started on March 3.
Considering that his remarks are a "message toward the North" based
on the outcome of discussions with the ROK, China, and Japan, they
cannot but draw much attention.

Overall, he stressed two points. First, he emphasized, "The
fundamental goal of the United States is the complete and verifiable
denuclearization of the Korean peninsula." Second, he said, "We
continue to regard the Six Party process as the central element of
our effort to continue with the denuclearization of the Korean
Peninsula." He added, "We are hopeful that we can see the
resumption of the Six Party process in the relatively near future.
And I think we have the basis for further consultations with our
other partners in the Six Party process." He indicated that he will
continue the "efforts on denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula through
the Six-Party Talks" and create an environment for the early
resumption of the Six-Party Talks.


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He did not go as far as to mention "U.S.-North Korea diplomatic
normalization," an issue which the North would want to hear.
However, he touched upon U.S.-North Korea relations. When asked if
U.S.-North Korea high-level contact might undermine the Six-Party
Talks, he responded, "The U.S. has always been willing to have high
level contacts with the North Koreans," adding, "It certainly does
not mean in this case that our commitment to the Six Party process
is any less." This is a message saying that (he) will pursue the
Six-Party process and the U.S.-North Korea high-level dialogue at
the same time.

When reporters asked him if he is going to North Korea, he answered
with a laugh, "I'm going home tomorrow." Bosworth is scheduled to
depart for Washington on the morning of March 10. However, he
recently said, "We want dialogue with North Korea," adding,
"Probably, at some point of time, I think (I) will visit North
Korea."

ROK Chief Delegate to the Six-Party Talks Wi Sung-lac said, "We had
discussions and exchanged ideas with U.S. Special Representative for
North Korea Policy Bosworth about ways to prevent Pyongyang's
missile launches and resume the Six-Party Talks." Regarding the
Six-Party Talks, Wi said, "We are willing to have any consultations,
including those about the verification (of North Korea's nuclear
declaration)." In addition, he stressed the will to resume the
Six-Party Talks at an early date, saying, "If only the multilateral
talks are held, they will be beneficial."

It is noteworthy that President Lee Myung-bak had a closed-door
meeting with U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy
Bosworth at the Blue House on the afternoon of March 9. This is
because the meeting clearly shows that on the occasion of Bosworth's
visit, the ROKG attaches much significance to the coordination of
North Korea policies between Seoul and Washington. On March 9,
Special Representative Bosworth also met with almost all
high-ranking government officials on foreign policy and security,
including the Prime Minister, the Ministers of Unification, Foreign
Affairs and Trade, and National Defense, and the Presidential Senior
Secretary for Foreign Policy and Security. This contrasts sharply
with his schedules in China and Japan, where he met with neither
Chinese President Hu Jintao nor Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso.
In view of both the level and the scope of participants in the
meetings, it can be said that the ROK-U.S. discussions dominated the
U.S.-China and U.S.-Japan discussions.

Is U.S. Influence Waning?
(JoongAng Ilbo, March 10, 2009, Page 4)

The government of Kyrgyzstan decided to shut a U.S. air base.
During her visit to China, Clinton focused on selling U.S. Treasury
bonds rather than speaking for human rights.
U.S. sends a reconciliation gesture to Taliban's moderates,
signaling a change in its foreign affairs policy.

In Central Asian Kyrgyzstan, legislators on March 10 passed a bill
closing a U.S. air base in its territory. This came after the U.S.
rejected demands for an increase in annual rent for the base and
Russia persuaded Kyrgyzstan to drive out U.S. forces in return for
massive aid. With the passage of the bill, the U.S. forces should
leave the country within six months.

In her visit to Beijing last month, U.S. Secretary of State Clinton
urged China to continue investing in U.S. Treasury bonds. She
avoided (discussing) the issue of human rights in China, which could
mar important U.S.-China relations. This is in stark contrast to
her visit to Beijing in 1995 when she harshly criticized China on
human rights. . Newsweek, a U.S. news magazine, reported that this
is one of the signals that the influence of the U.S. is waning.

The U.S., the world's biggest power, is seen as shaky in the
international community due to financial crisis it triggered. With
its economic power declining, the U.S. is noticeably weakening in
terms of its diplomatic power and military power.


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Defeated in a struggle of power with Russia
The U.S. has used Kyrgyzstan's Manas base as an important staging
post for U.S forces fighting in Afghanistan. Each month, 15,000
U.S. soldiers and 500 tons of goods are ferried into Afghanistan
through the Manas base. However, if the U.S. air base is closed,
this will put a damper on President Obama's plan to deploy
additional 30,000 soldiers.

The U.S. forces are to be driven out of the Manas base because of
Moscow's money and influence. According to the AFP News Agency,
Kyrgyzstan has received 150 million dollars in aid from the U.S.,
including 63 million dollars of rent. But Kyrgyz President
Kurmanbek Bakiyev said that the U.S. ignored his repeated demands
for an increase in annual rent for the base. In the meantime,
Russia offered a 2.15 billion dollars aid package and loan and
President Bakiyev accepted it. Newsweek analyzed that Kyrgystan's
decision to shut a U.S. air base is due largely to Moscow's ardent
efforts to increase its influence in the Central Asia region which
was a part of the former Soviet Union.

The U.S. badly needs support from China
During her visit to China, Secretary Clinton urged China to continue
investing in U.S. Treasury bonds. This shows that the U.S. is in
dire straits. China possesses U.S. bonds worth 1 trillion dollars
including Treasury bonds and instruments. This could give China
influence over U.S. economy. If China calls in its U.S. bonds all
at once, U.S. dollars will plunge in value. An expert observed that
if this happens, there could be an economic 'Pearl Harbor'. He
added that even if China raises the interest rate, dollars will
crash in value.

U.S. foreign policy becomes softer.
In an interview with the New York Times on March 6, President Obama
said that the U.S. will reach out to Taliban's moderates and leave
open the possibility of reconciliation. Even considering that the
U.S. said it is possible to have dialogue with hostile countries
such as Iran and North Korea, its professed position to talk with
the Taliban seems to show that its one-sided diplomatic and security
policy is no longer effective. The U.S. is hurrying to improve ties
with Cuba. Britain's daily newspaper, the Guardian's internet
edition opined that the U.S. will attempt to reshape its ties with
Cuba at the Summit of the Americas scheduled to be held in Trinidad
and Tobago next month.

North Cuts off Military Communications with South
(Hankyoreh Shinmun, March 10, 2009, Page 3)

By Reporter Sohn Won-je

Seoul seems slow to react to the situation, but has almost exhausted
non-military means for pressuring Pyongyang for change.

Early on March 9, North Korea declared that it is cutting off the
military hotline between North and South during Seoul's "Key
Resolve" joint military exercises with the United States, and
immediately began blocking the passage of South Korean personnel to
and from the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Some 726 Southerners were
scheduled to visit the North later that day but were unable to go,
while roughly 80 Southerners set to return from Kaesong were unable
to return onschedule. Border crossings had been taking place by
using the communication line that exists between the militaries of
both sides to convey travel plans, and the loss of that channel of
communication means that necessary information cannot be conveyed.

Despite this, the Seoul government seems halfhearted in its
management of the situation.

Later the same morning, the South's Ministry of Unification issued a
spokesperson's statement. It was a little stronger in tone than
previous comments by the ministry spokesman in response to other
North Korean moves meant to pressure the South.

But that was all. And Unification Ministry statements continue to
be all too weak in attaining the desired effects. The statement of

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March 9 says the South Korean government "will swiftly take the
necessary measures for the safety of our personnel in Kaesong and at
Mount Kumgang and for the smooth continuance of projects there," but
the only action it took was to indirectly ask Pyongyang, through the
Kaesong Industrial Complex Management Committee, to allow Southern
personnel to cross the border. Reportedly, the North Korean
counterpart said it is "waiting for instructions from above" and has
made no further response.

Seoul still is not considering retaliatory moves. It is worried
about the safety of the Southerners still in Kaesong if the
situation were to escalate and, furthermore, there have been no
signs of a potential military clash, since the North Korean military
has not been observed in any unusual activity. The assumption is
also that the North will not let the situation get so far out of
hand that it would look like it is deliberately holding Southerners,
something that could bring international wrath and military action
on the part of the United States and the South.

The problem, then, is that other than making demands and requests,
Seoul has no other means at its disposal. Inter-Korean relations
have been worsening for some time now, and almost all available
channels have broken down. It has almost exhausted non-military
means to pressure Pyongyang for change, like with rice and
fertilizer.

Pyongyang has continued with a barrage of measures meant to step up
pressure on Seoul since the inauguration of President Lee Myung-bak.
It expelled Southern officials in the North, put restrictions on
land travel across the border, nullified various military agreements
and warned about the possibility of armed clashes, and now it has
halted Southern civilian air travel through its airspace during the
Key Resolve exercises.

Each and every time, the Lee Administration's strategy has been to
deliberately ignore what has happened, deciding "not to get excited
or upset" at "each little North Korean threat."

Now that those threats have revealed themselves in the form of
concrete action, however, Seoul is left with its hands tied, unable
to do much more than watch.

* This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is
identical to the Korean version.


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