PRESS BULLETIN - February 13, 2009

UNCLAS SEOUL 000235 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/K, EAP/PD, INR/EAP/K AND INR/IL/P TREASURY FOR OASIA/WINGLE USDOC FOR 4430/IEP/OPB/EAP/WGOLICKE STATE PASS USDA ELECTRONICALLY FOR FAS/ITP STATE PASS DOL/ILAB SUDHA HALEY STATE PASS USTR FOR IVES/WEISEL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO PGOV PREL MARR ECON KS US SUBJECT: PRESS BULLETIN - February 13, 2009 Opinions/Editorials ¶1. Lessons of 'Buy-American' Policy (Hankook Ilb, February 13, 2009, Page 39) ¶2. National Security Worries (JoongAng Ilbo, February 13, 2009, Page 26) ¶3. North Korea Should Not Miscalculate Things with a Missile Launch (Hankook Ilbo, February 13, 2009, Page 39) Top Headlines Chosun Ilbo National Intelligence Service to Reshuffle Key Senior Officials JoongAng Ilbo, All TVs ROKG, Ruling Party Decide to Offer Tax Waiver to Spur Home Sales Dong-a Ilbo Crisis to Foster SOC Projects, New Growth Engines Hankook Ilbo Education Ministry to Send Official in Charge of University Admission to Korean Council for University Education, an Indication that ROKG Might be Involved in College Admission Policy Again Hankyoreh Shinmun Controversy Spreads over Blue House's Alleged Instructions to Police to Promote Serial Killer Case in a Bid to Prevent Escalation of Anti-Government Rallies Sparked by "Yongsan Fire Tragedy" Segye Ilbo State-run Credit Insurers to Roll Over All their Guarantees on Bank Loans that Mature This year, Amounting to 34 Trillion Won Seoul Shinmun Worst Drought in 100 Years Hits ROK Domestic Developments ¶1. Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan warned yesterday that North Korea would not benefit from a missile launch, because of the resulting international sanctions. (JoongAng) ¶2. According to a senior Defense Ministry official, 12 members of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee will visit Seoul on Feb. 18 to discuss pending bilateral issues, including the transfer of wartime operational control from the U.S. to the ROK and the relocation of USFK bases. (JoongAng) International News ¶1. It was learned yesterday that North Korea has transported a Taepodong-2 missile to the Musudan-ri launch site on the east coast using a special covered cargo carriage to make it difficult to track. ROK and U.S. intelligence authorities assume that the North is now assembling the missile at the launch site and could test-launch it as early as Feb. 25, the first anniversary of President Lee Myung-bak's inauguration. (Chosun) ¶2. According to diplomatic sources in Washington and the foreign media, Stephen Bosworth, a former U.S. Ambassador to the ROK, is certain to be named as Special Envoy for North Korea. (All) Media Analysis North Korea Conservative Chosun Ilbo front-paged a report claiming that North Korea has transported a Taepodong-2 missile to the Musudan-ri launch site on the east coast using a special covered cargo carriage to make it difficult to track. The report went on to say that ROK and U.S. intelligence authorities assume that the North is now assembling the missile at the launch site and could test-fire it as early as Feb. 25, the first anniversary of President Lee Myung-bak's inauguration. An ROKG official was quoted as saying: "The Taepodong-2 has not been seen near the launch pad yet. We assume that they are currently assembling the first and second-stage rockets. Given the time needed to move the missile to the launch pad, raise it, and fill it with liquid fuel once the first and second-stage rockets are assembled, it is unlikely that it will be ready for Feb. 16, leader Kim Jong-il's birthday." Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo carried a quote from Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, who warned yesterday that North Korea would not benefit from a missile launch, because of the resulting international sanctions. JoongAng Ilb editorialized: "Amidst a series of signs that North Korea may soon test a long-range missile, North Korea's propaganda newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, has abruptly asserted North Korea's right to use and develop space technology. Furthermore, the fact that Chinese vessels have stopped fishing in the West Sea is definitely an abnormal (would "unusual" fit better or not fit the original sense?) move. Nevertheless, Seoul is exceptionally quiet, marking a stark contrast to Washington, where warnings about North Korea's provocations come out every day. Some even predict that the North will probably seek to launch an attack calibrated to be too small for Washington to intervene but strong enough to cause psychological shock for the ROK. With the economy in such bad shape, we can't afford concerns over national security. The ROKG must show confidence and resolution on the matter." Moderate Hankook Ilbo observed in an editorial: "Despite Washington's warnings and concerns, North Korea appears to be pushing for the launch of a ballistic missile. It is also unusual that Pyongyang replaced the Minister of People's Armed Forces and the Chief of the General Staff at the same time. We do not know what triggered these moves, whether it was the internal circumstances in the North or something else... Some observers say that these moves are designed to grab Washington's attention, but the North's saber-rattling against the Obama Administration, which is willing to have direct talks with it, will not benefit U.S.-North Korea relations. It will only give ammunition to hawks." Citing diplomatic sources in Washington and the foreign media, the ROK media gave wide play to a report saying that Stephen Bosworth, a former U.S. Ambassador to the ROK, is certain to be named as Special Envoy for North Korea. Pakistan Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo replayed a Reuters report saying that Pakistan admitted for the first time on Feb. 12 that last November's Mumbai terrorist attacks were partially plotted on its soil. Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik was quoted as saying: "We have already expressed our intention to proactively cooperate with India regarding the terror attacks." JoongAng viewed this development as setting the stage for a thaw in relations between Pakistan and India. Opinions/Editorials Lessons of 'Buy-American' Policy (Hankook Ilb, February 13, 2009, Page 39) By Sogang University Prof. An Se-young These days, a new protectionist streak is surfacing in the world economy. In late January, the U.S. House of Representatives passed an economic stimulus package with a 'Buy-American' provision that prohibits the purchase of foreign iron and steel for any stimulus-funded infrastructure. The mandatory use of its own products by a country under the World Trade Organization (WTO) system apparently is a policy that might be seen in East Asian or Latin American countries. But the U.S., which has been in the vanguard of the world's free trade, made an unconvincing move. In fact, the 'Buy-American' provision is a bygone relic that vanished into history after the 1980s when Asian-made products such as textiles and electronic goods were imported en masse to the U.S. However, with economic meltdown in the U.S., the U.S. Congress revived the protectionist clause to pacify the laborers in its legislative districts. In the U.S., there is a saying, 'protectionism by Congress versus free trade by President'. In times of economic downturn, lawmakers tend to represent interests of their legislative districts which generally call for protectionism. But the U.S president takes a different attitude. He is mindful of America's leadership in the international community and views the public economy from an overall perspective. Therefore, the U.S president is somewhat keen on preserving free trade while occasionally balking at protectionist moves by Congress. The 'Buy-American' policy by the U.S. could lead to similar moves in countries such as the European Union (EU),Japan and Korea which are also eager to protect their own faltering industries. France and China each are moving to enforce mandatory purchase of their own products. With spread of this vicious cycle, protectionism would spread beyond the steel industry into the manufacturing field and service sector.. This would plunge the world economy into a great depression. A study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics has found that the 'Buy-American' provision could create merely 1,000 jobs in the steel industry. On the contrary, if this protectionist move for steel spreads to U.S. trading partners such as EU and China and they import less U.S.-made steel products than before, it would cost the U.S. steel industry as many as 6, 500 jobs. We should draw clear lessons from the 'Buy-American' policy. We should not budge an inch from the World Trade Organization (WTO) system that has taken hold for the past half century with cooperation from around the world. President Lee Myung-bak stressed this point at the Group of 20 (G-20) financial summit and President Obama also underscored in early February that the 'Buy-American' provision should be in accordance with international agreements. We expect the G-20 leaders, who will gather in London in April, to display leadership by spurning protectionism and making a concerted effort to re-affirm the world's free trade spirit. National Security Worries (JoongAng Ilbo, February 13, 2009, Page 26) A series of signs indicate that North Korea may soon test a long-range missile. The intelligence authorities have evidence that missile launching equipment was positioned, after an object suspected to be a Taepodong-2 was moved to a missile base in Musudan-ri, Hwadae County, in North Hamgyeong Province. CNN reported that a U.S. intelligence satellite caught North Koreans assembling telemetry equipment used for a missile launch. North Korea's propaganda newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, abruptly talked about North Korea's right to use and develop space technology. Chinese fishing vessels stopped sailing into Yellow Sea waters, definitely an abnormal move. Worries that North Korea will soon conduct a missile test are increasing. However, Seoul is exceptionally quiet, marking a stark contrast to Washington, where warnings about North Korea's provocations come out every day. Seoul is taking a hands-off approach, just as it kept silent when North Korea announced that it would nullify all agreements between Seoul and Pyongyang that aimed to ease political and military confrontation, and that aimed to abolish causes of tension related to the Northern Limit Line, a sea border between the South and the North. South Korea is determined to abide by principles, remain persistent and resolute and not to change its attitude and stance according to North Korea's every move. However, the people are nervous. Are there government measures to cope with a national security crisis if Pyongyang launches a Taepodong-2 missile and Washington shoots it down? How will our government respond if North Korea fires a missile over the NLL into our territory, which Pyongyang claims as its waters? Will South Korea be lost, not knowing what to do, or will it counterattack? If Seoul counterattacks, would this lead to an all-out war? Some even predict that North Korea will probably seek an attack which would be too small for Washington to intervene but strong enough to cause psychological shock for South Korea. Our unification minister and the head of the National Intelligence Service have been replaced and the line-up of the new foreign affairs and national security team hasn't been decided yet, intensifying concerns even more. With the economy in such bad shape, we can't afford concerns over national security. The government must show confidence and resolution on the matter. * This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version. North Korea Should Not Miscalculate Things with a Missile Launch (Hankook Ilbo, February 13, 2009, Page 39) A string of reports about North Korea are unsettling. For quite a while, Pyongyang has pressured Seoul through statements from the Chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army and the Committee for the Peaceful Unification of the Fatherland, and this time, it is now preparing a launch of a ballistic missile. After recently moving what looks like a Taepodong-2 missile to a launch site at Musudan-ri in Hwadae County, North Hamkyung Province, the North is now taking additional steps to test-fire the missile, such as assembling equipment for remote measurement. Despite Washington's concern and its series of warnings, the North appears to be pushing for the launch of a ballistic missile. It is also uncommon that Pyongyang replaced the Minister of People's Armed Forces and the Chief of the General Staff at the same time. We do not know what judgment the North made about the situation before making this move and how the internal circumstances in the North affected the move. However, it is evident that in the current international situation, there is no benefit that the North can gain by raising tension through a missile launch. Some observers say that it is designed to grab Washington's attention, but saber-rattling against the Obama Administration, which is willing to have direct talks with the North, is not beneficial to progress in the U.S.-North Korea relations. It will only give ammunition to hawks. A missile launch may also be for internal purposes, of course. The North might need an event like a missile firing to solidify internal unity, which was weakened by the alleged poor health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, and to pave the way for a post-Kim era. The replacements of the Minister of People's Armed Forces and the Chief of the General Staff may have come in this context. If Pyongyang fires a Taepodong-2 missile for these purposes, it will likely say to the outside world that it is launching an artificial satellite, as it did in 1998. Then, the North calculates, it could dodge criticism for violating the UN resolution. However, considering that it is very difficult to distinguish a satellite projectile from a ballistic missile, the North's claim will be a transparent guile, and therefore, it will not be able to avoid international condemnation and sanctions. It is also unusual that Washington is issuing a series of strong warnings against Pyongyang's missile test preparations. The North should judge with a cool head what result its reckless behavior will produce. Stephens 1