SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; December 14, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 SEOUL 001946 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; December 14, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo, Dong-a Ilbo, Hankook Ilbo, All TVs Arms Cargo from N. Korea Seized in Thailand Hankyoreh Shinmun, Seoul Shinmun ¶N. Korean Weapons Seizure May Affect U.S.-N. Korea Dialogue INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- On Dec. 12, Thai authorities, reportedly acting on a tip from their U.S. counterparts, seized 35 tons of weapons on a plane that flew from North Korea and arrested five crew members on board. This Thai action was in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1874 banning the transportation of weapons to or from North Korea. (All) An ROKG official commented that the seizure clearly demonstrated Washington's "two-track" approach: applying pressure on the North through tough international sanctions while keeping the door open for dialogue until the North takes significant steps to denuclearize. (JoongAng) Referring to the Dec. 9 talks in Pyongyang between Ambassador Bosworth and North Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju, an ROKG source said on Dec. 13 that North Korea's message to Ambassador Bosworth is that in order for the North to return to the Six-Party Talks, (the U.S.) should create an atmosphere in which the North can "save face." (JoongAng) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -N. Korea -------------- The seizure in Thailand of a Georgian cargo plane carrying 35 tons of North Korean weapons received wide press coverage today. According to media reports, this Thai action was in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1874 banning the transportation of weapons from or to North Korea. It is also the first time an airplane carrying North Korean weapons has been caught since the UN Security Council adopted sanctions in June, according to media reports. Most media speculated that this incident may have a negative impact on U.S.-North Korea relations, because it came shortly after the Dec. 8 visit to Pyongyang by U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth. Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo quoted an ROKG official as commenting that the seizure clearly demonstrated Washington's "two-track" approach: applying pressure on the North through tough international sanctions while keeping the door open for dialogue until the North takes significant steps to denuclearize. Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "Selling weapons has long been regarded as a major cash cow for North Korea. However, arms smuggling cannot be a means to revive the North Korean economy and to save North Korean citizens from starvation. ... This incident once again confirms that Pyongyang's only interest is in maintaining its regime and that it remains preoccupied with obtaining funds needed to maintain its power through illegal arms deals." An editorial in right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo argued: "Although we hope that this incident will not pour cold water on the hard-won atmosphere for dialogue between North Korea and the U.S., there is one thing that the North should bear in mind: It is just an illusion to think that UN sanctions, as in the past, will not be effective. SEOUL 00001946 002 OF 006 The only way for the North to escape the sanctions is to return to the Six-Party Talks and to clearly express its intention to abandon its nuclear ambitions." Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "Another worrisome factor is that North Korea used an aircraft for weapons transport this time. Pyongyang has apparently used air transport to deceive the world after scrutiny was raised on its ships. ... The latest incident shows that the world should never relax sanctions on North Korea and let its guard down." With regard to the Dec. 9 talks in Pyongyang between Ambassador Bosworth and North Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju, JoongAng Ilbo carried a report quoting an ROKG source as saying on Dec. 13: "North Korea's message to Ambassador Bosworth is that in order for the North to return to the Six-Party Talks, (the U.S.) should create an atmosphere in which the North can "save face." Most media replayed foreign media reports that Ambassador Bosworth said in Beijing on Dec. 12 that there is no immediate plan for more talks with North Korea and urged "strategic patience" from the countries seeking the North's nuclear disarmament. An editorial in moderate Hankook Ilbo noted media reports that the U.S. and North Korea agreed during Ambassador Bosworth's visit to Pyongyang to discuss a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula in a 'four-nation setting' with the ROK and China, and commented: "The 'comprehensive package,' which promises normalization of diplomatic ties, a permanent peace regime and massive economic assistance in return for the North's complete denuclearization, is not different from our government's 'grand bargain' proposal. ... We should be prudent in preparing for discussions on a peace regime because the talks involve other sensitive issues that could affect the ROK-U.S. alliance. However, if such talks help to restart the Six-Party Talks and other denuclearization negotiations, we view them positively." OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- ARMS DEALS HIGHLIGHT N. KOREA'S DUPLICITY (Chosun Ilbo, December 14, 2009, Page 35) While searching a Georgian cargo aircraft from Pyongyang during a refueling stop at Bangkok's Don Muang Airport on Saturday, Thai authorities found 35 tons of North Korean weapons aboard, including missiles and explosives, and arrested five crewmembers including the pilot. Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Sunday the measure was based on Thai laws and on UN (Security Council) Resolution 1874. Some reports said the final destination of the plane was Pakistan, near whose border U.S. forces are engaged in a fierce battle against the Taliban. The UN Security Council adopted Resolution 1874 following North Korea's second nuclear test on May 25 banning all weapons-related transactions with the North. North Korea's attempted smuggling of weapons is a clear violation of the resolution and will inevitably lead to stronger sanctions against North Korea. In August, the United Arab Emirates seized a vessel laden with North Korean weapons, while another North Korean cargo ship, the Kangnam, was forced to return to its home port on its way to Myanmar after being tracked by the U.S. Navy. North Korea is believed to have loaded the Georgian aircraft with missiles and explosives last Tuesday or Wednesday, just when U.S. special envoy on North Korea policy Stephen Bosworth was visiting Pyongyang. In other words, the North was busily selling weapons even as it was holding its first dialogue with the U.S. in a year. Pyongyang is seriously mistaken if it believes the resumption of dialogue with the U.S. signals an easing of surveillance of its arms dealings. Regardless of U.S.-North Korea talks, the international community is willing to enforce UN sanctions against North Korea. Indeed, the Georgian aircraft, which was scheduled to refuel in Sri SEOUL 00001946 003 OF 006 Lanka, may have made an emergency landing in Thailand as a result of surveillance and tracking efforts by the international community. Selling weapons has long been regarded as a major cash cow for North Korea. However, arms smuggling cannot be a means to revive the North Korean economy and to save North Korean citizens from starvation. The ROK, the U.S. and the international community have made it clear that they are willing to offer economic aid and support to North Korea if it abandons its nuclear weapons and missile programs. But the regime is not interested in saving North Korean lives. This incident once again confirms that Pyongyang's only interest is in maintaining its regime and that it remains preoccupied with obtaining funds needed to maintain power through illegal arms deals. NK CAUGHT AGAIN FOR EXPORTING WEAPONS (Dong-a Ilbo, December 14, 2009, Page 35) North Korea has been caught yet again for trying to export weapons. The cargo aircraft seized yesterday in Thailand reportedly contained 35 tons of weapons, including missiles and rocket launchers. This shows that the North continues to export weapons in defiance of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1874 passed in June, which bans Pyongyang from exporting all weapons-related material excluding small weapons. The resolution is part of the sanctions (implemented resulting from) the North's long-range missile program and its second nuclear test. Another worrisome factor is that this time North Korea used an aircraft for weapons transport. Pyongyang has apparently used air transport to deceive the world after scrutiny was raised on its ships. In August, the United Arab Emirates seized North Korean weapons in a ship from a third country headed for Iran. A month later, North Korean cargo, including body armor, was intercepted in the ROK port of Busan. Back in June, the North Korean ship Kangnam 1, which was suspected of carrying weapons, had to sail back to North Korea when an American vessel began tailing it. With its adoption of the air transport method, Pyongyang is playing hide-and-seek with the world both at sea and in the sky. North Korea is also taking advantage of bilateral talks with the U.S. while exporting weapons. The cargo aircraft detained in Thailand had left Pyongyang two days after Stephen Bosworth, U.S. special envoy for North Korea policy, returned home from his visit to the North Korean capital. The weapons were delivered while Bosworth was in Pyongyang, then the plane took off immediately after he left. North Korea might have expected U.S. surveillance to weaken while Bosworth was in Pyongyang. It is hard to believe that North Korea truly wants to reconcile with the U.S. since it attempted to export weapons behind Washington's back while bilateral talks were in progress. U.N. Security Council Resolutions 1718 and 1874 are emergency measures to prevent the North from spreading weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons and missiles. The latest incident shows that the world should never relax sanctions on North Korea and let its guard down. For a nation that sells weapons to whomever it wants, North Korea might be led to believing that exporting WMDs is a profitable business. As seen with Iran, a rogue country that has openly expanded its uranium enrichment program, there is clearly international demand for nuclear weapons and technology. Fortunately, many nations have actively cooperated in implementing the two (UNSC) resolutions. Thailand seized the Georgian aircraft that carried the North Korean weapons based on a tip from U.S. intelligence. Myanmar also rejected the entrance of Kangnam 1. North Korea seeks to disrupt peace by ignoring U.N. resolutions and continuing the export of weapons, but decisive action from the international community can prevent this. NORTH KOREAN WEAPONS SEIZURE SHOULD NOT AFFECT TALKS SEOUL 00001946 004 OF 006 (Hankyoreh Shinmun, December 11, 2009, Page 31) On Saturday, a cargo aircraft carrying North Korean-made missiles and other weapons was detained at a Thai airport and the weapons confiscated. Although the aircraft and its five crew members were all from former Soviet Union countries, it appears certain that the weapons intended for export were from North Korea since they originated from Pyongyang. The amount of weapons came to a considerable 35 tons. This unfavorable turn of events comes just after the visit of Stephen Bosworth, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy. Weapons exports by North Korea are in violation of a United Nations (UN) resolution adopted this past spring after the country had conducted a nuclear test. That resolution designates nearly all North Korea weapons as subject to an embargo. While North Korea does not recognize this resolution, UN member nations are obligated to abide by its content. As such, there may be a fair amount of conflict emerging between North Korea and other concerned nations in the future over the determinations made by the UN Sanctions Committee. Another concern is the negative effect this may have on the resumption of Six-Party Talks. North Korea had taken another step closer to returning to those talks with Bosworth's visit of Dec. 8 that lasted until Dec. 10. Experts are predicting that talks will resume after an additional senior-level meeting between North Korea and the U.S. These developments mean that the U.S. and North Korea are on the verge of a consensus on the broader framework of the denuclearization process. Furthermore, if talks resume, it is expected that negotiations will be proceeding somewhat more effectively based on a reflection on past failures. However, some are saying this incident may cause a delay in the resumption of talks. If this incident has a negative effect on international opinion, we may see a repeat of the Banco Delta Asia (BDA) incident that took place around the time of the September 19 Joint Statement in 2005, which prevented the Six-Party Talks from proceeding for nearly a year and a half. Even if the international community moves to deal with the incident swiftly in accordance with the spirit of the UN resolution, it needs to ensure that there is no increase in needless conflict. It goes without saying that we must not have factions that favor a hard line on North Korea using the incident to thwart nuclear negotiations as happened with the BDA incident. Moreover, North Korea, for its part, should not engage in misguided stubbornness over facts that have already come to light. It needs to bear in mind that the international sanctions targeting it will ultimately go away only if headway is made in denuclearization. If Six-Party Talks are to restart and generate results, it is important that all parties involved work to maintain a balance and steadily build up trust even if some unforeseen incident takes place. North Korea in particular should view this incident as a test case for examining its approach. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) "FOUR-WAY DIALOGUE" IS DESIRABLE FOR PEACE REGIME ON KOREAN PENINSULA (Hankook Ilbo, December 14, Page 39) The U.S. and North Korea reportedly agreed to discuss a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula in a "four-nation setting" with the ROK and China. Both sides agreed that the four-way talks should be held after the Six-Party Talks resume. This mutual understanding was reached during Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth's visit to Pyongyang. The U.S., which urged the North to denuclearize first, and North Korea, which demanded a peace regime, agreed to discuss the two issues through separate dialogue. This is desirable progress because the ROKG has considered denuclearization and a peace regime the two axes for a peaceful Korean Peninsula. SEOUL 00001946 005 OF 006 The need to discuss a peace regime such as replacing the armistice agreement with a peace treaty also was brought up in the 1991 Basic Agreement and during the Four-Party Talks in Geneva in 1997. The U.S. and North Korea mentioned a four-nation negotiation framework for signing a peace treaty in 2000 when special envoy Jo Myong-rok visited the U.S. The September 19, 2005 Joint Statement also stipulates that "the directly related parties" will negotiate a peace regime (on the Korean Peninsula) at an appropriate separate forum. However, the peace treaty issue has made little progress and was not addressed seriously in the Six-Party Talks. In response to UN Security Council's sanctions imposed after its long-range rocket launch, North Korea boycotted the Six-Party Talks apparently because it aimed to transform denuclearization negotiations into peace treaty negotiations. North Korea called for the removal of the U.S.'s threats against North Korea and its nuclear umbrella for the ROK as a prerequisite for its denuclearization. Even though the agreement this time embraced the North's demand, it is consistent with the common positions of the U.S. and the ROK. The four-way dialogue will take place only after the Six-Party Talks resume and the ROK has been reaffirmed as one of the "directly related parties." The U.S. has been pressuring the North to rejoin the Six-Party Talks while at the same time proposing an alternate road to take. The 'comprehensive package,' which promises normalization of diplomatic ties, a permanent peace regime and massive economic assistance in return for the North's complete denuclearization, is not different from our government's 'grand bargain' proposal. Thai authorities impounded a Georgian cargo plane carrying North Korean weapons including missiles. This move indicates (the U.S.'s) determination to pursue pressure and dialogue at the same time. We should be prudent in preparing for discussions on a peace regime because the talks involve other sensitive issues that could affect the ROK-U.S. alliance. However, if such talks help to restart the Six-Party Talks and other denuclearization negotiations, we view them positively. ¶N. KOREAN WEAPONS SEIZURE REAFFIRMS (THE USG'S) TWO-TRACK PRINCIPLE OF SANCTIONS AND DIALOGUE (JoongAng Ilbo, December 14, 2009, Page 38) A cargo plane carrying North Korean weapons was seized in Thailand on December 12. It was only two days after the U.S.-North Korean high-level talks ended. This incident clearly shows the Obama Administration's determination to implement a two-track strategy of pressure and dialogue toward the North and not to repeat the past pattern of the Bush Administration, when sanctions against the North disappeared after the communist state entered into dialogue. As far as it is known, it seems to be certain that North Korea violated UN Security Council Resolution 1874. Thai authorities reported that they inspected and seized a Georgian cargo plane from Pyongyang carrying 35 tons of North Korean weaponry, including about 20 missiles and 48 rocket-propelled grenades, when the plane stopped for refueling. The U.S. intelligence authorities reportedly asked for cooperation in that process. Although more details are expected to be revealed after the Thai authorities complete their investigation, it appears obvious that the North was caught exporting weapons through a plane of a third nation. UNSC Resolution 1874, which was adopted in June after the North Korea's second nuclear test, bans all trade in North Korean-made weapons. This Resolution "calls upon all States to inspect all cargo to and from the DPRK, in their territory, including seaports and airports, if the State concerned has information that provides reasonable grounds to believe the cargo contains prohibited items (Article 11)," authorizes "all Member States to, and that all Member States shall, seize and dispose of prohibited items (article 14)" and "requires any Member State to submit promptly reports containing SEOUL 00001946 006 OF 006 relevant details to the Committee on the inspection, seizure and disposal (of prohibited cargo) (Article 15)." Thailand seems to have inspected the cargo plane on a tip-off from the U.S. and seized the weapons. In August, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) seized North Korean-made weapons on a third nation's vessel bound for Iran, and at the end of June, a North Korean ship suspected of carrying weapons toward Myanmar returned home after being tracked by a U.S. Navy vessel. It is getting clearer that it is becoming more difficult for North Korea to export weapons in defiance of the UNSC Resolution. Although we hope that this incident will not pour cold water on the hard-won atmosphere for dialogue between North Korea and the U.S., there is one thing that the North should bear in mind: It is just an illusion to think that UN sanctions, as in the past, will not be effective. The only way for the North to escape the sanctions is to return to the Six-Party Talks and clearly express its intention to abandon its nuclear ambitions. STEPHENS