SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; November 9, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 SEOUL 001784 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; November 9, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo, Dong-a Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun Work on Four-River Restoration Project to Begin Tomorrow JoongAng Ilbo Labor Ministry to Blacklist Firms Paying Salaries to Full-Time Unionists Hankook Ilbo Prime Minister and Five Other Heavyweights from Ruling GNP, Government, and Blue House Meet to Discuss "Sejong City Plan" Hankyoreh Shinmun ROKG's Environmental Assessment for Four-River Project Criticized as "Inaccurate and Incomplete" DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- A bipartisan group of 88 U.S. congressmen sent a letter to President Obama on Nov. 6 urging him to expedite the process for the ratification of the KORUS FTA prior to his Nov. 18 visit to Seoul. (All) Lawrence Summers, Chairman of the U.S. National Economic Council, indicated during a Nov. 6 ROK-U.S. Business Council meeting in Washington that (the U.S.) is preparing to ratify the KORUS FTA. (JoongAng, Dong-a, Hankook) 12 U.S. congressmen from Michigan, the heart of the U.S. automobile industry, meanwhile, called for a revision of the KORUS FTA on the same day. (Dong-a, Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- A senior ROKG official told Korean correspondents in Washington on Nov. 6 that the U.S. will soon announce that Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth will visit Pyongyang to meet with Kang Sok-ju, the North's First Vice Foreign Minister. (JoongAng) Jeffrey Bader, Senior Director for East Asian Affairs at the National Security Council, said during a Nov. 6 seminar in Washington that the U.S. is prepared for direct talks with North Korea. (Dong-a, Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul, MBC) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -N. Korea -------------- All ROK media on Saturday covered Nov. 5 press remarks by Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth, in which he said that the USG will "soon" decide on talks with North Korea and that if he does visit the North, it would most likely be "within weeks" after President Obama returns home from his Nov. 12-19 Asian trip. In a related development, right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo today quoted a senior ROKG official as telling ROK correspondents in Washington on Nov. 6 that the U.S. will soon announce that Special Representative for North Korea Policy Stephen Bosworth will visit Pyongyang to meet with Kang Sok-ju, the North's First Vice Foreign Minister. Jeffrey Bader, Senior Director for East Asian Affairs at the SEOUL 00001784 002 OF 007 National Security Council, was also widely quoted as saying during a Nov. 6 seminar in Washington that the U.S. is prepared for direct talks with North Korea and that it is discussing the timing and method of U.S.-North Korea talks with allies. -U.S.-Japan Alliance -------------- Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized today: "Prime Minister Hatoyama does not deny the importance of Japan's alliance with the U.S. He has repeatedly said that the U.S.-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of Japan's diplomacy. However, it is clear that the U.S.-Japan alliance, which has been hailed as the most solid alliance in the world over the past 55 years, is going through transitional pains. ... There is a new perception at play behind Hatoyama's new diplomacy that with the U.S.-focused diplomacy alone, Japan cannot find a new means of survival in the 21st political environment marked by 'China's rise.'" Berlin Wall - 20th Anniversary of Its Fall Conservative Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall is an occasion for people of both Koreas to reflect on the stark reality of their national division. ... Continued personnel exchanges and cooperation between both Germanys laid the groundwork for reunification. ... Unfortunately, however, the road to Korean reunification is growing increasingly rockier, with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il seeking to transfer power to his son while confronting the international community with nuclear weapons. The North's population of 24 million, brainwashed by their totalitarian government, is struggling with starvation. In the early 1990s, the ROK's national income was six to eight times that of the North, but the gap is now 38 times. ... Like in Germany, the Korean Peninsula could also see an unexpected reunification. ... Steady preparation is badly needed to minimize the costs and adverse effects of Korean reunification." OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- ON CHANGING U.S. STRATEGY (JoongAng Ilbo, November 7, 2009, Page 38) The United States has decided to keep the headquarters of its Eighth Army in the ROK, reversing plans to relocate it to Hawaii. Next June, it will also form a new Korea Command, which will control the U.S. forces stationed here. The move aims to minimize a gap in security on the peninsula when wartime operational control is transferred from the U.S. forces to South Korea in 2012. The U.S. military wants to realign its units stationed here in accordance with its global military strategy. And the new U.S. forces base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, scheduled to be complete in 2015, could serve as an overseas operational hub, a role currently assumed by the U.S. forces in Japan. By giving strategic flexibility to the U.S. forces in South Korea, the Pyeongtaek base would become an advance base for the United States in Northeast Asia. Given South Korea's geopolitical location neighboring North Korea and other regional powers, the new U.S. plans would be beneficial to our security. But there are some issues to deal with as well. The government must prepare measures in response to the restructuring of the U.S. military here. First, there is the fallout from the transfer of wartime operational command. In emergencies, the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Commander would control the U.S. forces here, American reinforcements from overseas and also the South Korean troops. Up-to-date U.S. military intelligence from around the world and the country's combat capabilities would be put to efficient use in that case. But by shifting the wartime command, South Korean forces would operate separately from their U.S. partners. That runs the risk of compromising efficiency in the field. The ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Agreement stipulates automatic U.S. intervention in case South Korea comes under attack, but that is only on a theoretical basis. The combined forces command is there to ensure such protection. In other words, it has real impact in minimizing the possibility of SEOUL 00001784 003 OF 007 North Korean provocations. We need measures to prevent weakening of such effect. The best solution would be to delay the transfer until at least the peninsula finds peace and stability. The forming of the new Korea Command would hinder our diplomatic activities in the future. For instance, the presence of a U.S. advance base here might affect our relations with China or Russia. We can't avoid this possibility as long as we need U.S. troops in the nation, but still, the government needs to exercise flexibility to keep any negative side effects to a minimum. Finally, we must keep the latest move - with South Korea serving as the overseas base for the U.S. forces - from degenerating into an international controversy. Some may charge that South Korea will depend entirely on the U.S. armed forces. We must remember that western European nations and Japan have accepted a similar role for the sake of national security. We must keep in mind that maintaining and strengthening our military alliance with the United States is the wisest option to satisfy our security needs. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) WHAT THE JAPAN-U.S. RIFT MEANS FOR NORTHEAST ASIA (Chosun Ilbo, November 9, 2009, Page 35) Tension between Washington and Tokyo is growing ahead of U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Japan this Saturday and Sunday. The reason is Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's repeated comments since his inauguration in September that Japan has relied too much on the U.S. and will seek a more equal relationship. Hatoyama told lawmakers on Oct. 29 a "comprehensive review" is needed in U.S.-Japan relations. Hatoyama's cabinet wants to revise a 2006 agreement over the relocation of the Futenma air base in Okinawa. Some lawmakers in the ruling Democratic Party want the air base out of Japan altogether. That is threatening a U.S. strategy to reorganize its troop presence in Asia. The U.S. and Japan even canceled a foreign ministerial meeting planned in Washington. Some experts are saying the rift is too deep to patch up in a hurry. The U.S. government and media have said recently that Japan is not what it used to be, criticizing it for replacing China as Washington's "headache." The U.S. has considered its ties with Tokyo the cornerstone of its diplomatic strategy in Asia, which is why it is so sensitive. But Hatoyama is showing no signs of backing down, saying he is against the U.S. attempts to solve problems in Afghanistan by military means. All the while, Hatoyama is looking for closer Asian integration, proposing an East Asian Community. Prime Minister Hatoyama does not deny the importance of Japan's alliance with the U.S. He has repeatedly said that the U.S.-Japan alliance is the cornerstone of Japan's diplomacy. However, it is clear that the U.S.-Japan alliance, which has been hailed as the most solid alliance in the world over the past 55 years, is going through transitional pains. These changes cannot be seen solely as the result of Hatoyama's decisions. There is a new perception at play behind Hatoyama's new diplomacy that with the U.S.-focused diplomacy alone, Japan cannot find a new means of survival in the 21st political environment marked by "China's rise." In August, Hatoyama claimed that the era of U.S.-led globalization is coming to an end and the world is heading toward a multipolar order. Washington is bogged down in two wars, and the global financial crisis is testing its resources. Even under the Liberal Democrats, Japanese officials worried whether Washington's diplomatic policies favored Tokyo or Beijing. But Japanese officials were shocked to see the Obama Administration raise its relationship with China to a "strategic partnership." Until then, Washington had viewed China as both a cooperative partner and a SEOUL 00001784 004 OF 007 country to be wary of. The reason the Hatoyama Administration is seeking to change Japan's 100-year-old diplomatic style by focusing more on Asia is not just due to the threat to Washington's dominance but to the need to adopt quickly to the shift in policies by the Obama Administration. It remains to be seen how Hatoyama's new foreign policy will shape up and whether it proves no more than a temporary escape from traditional policies. But it is clear that diplomacy in Asia, where the interests of South Korea, China and Japan are closely intertwined, will change. South Korea faces the task of preparing for eventual reunification with North Korea and must fine-tune its national strategy by accurately forecasting the changes from U.S.'s decline and China's rise. The sounds of discord between Washington and Tokyo should be taken as a wake-up call for South Korea in shaping its national strategy in the increasingly fluid and complex diplomatic landscape of Northeast Asia. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) NATIONAL ASSEMBLY APPROVES TRADE PACT WITH INDIA; NOW IT IS THE KORUS FTA'S TURN (JoongAng Ilbo, November 9, 2009, page 33) The National Assembly yesterday ratified a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India virtually unanimously (192 in favor with 5 abstentions),opening the door to the Indian market with its 1.2 billion population starting early next year. The CEPA is as effective as a free trade agreement (FTA). If the National Assembly had failed to ratify the CEPA this time, we would have had to wait another year to ratify the trade deal. Even though the ruling and opposition parties have been mired in political bickering, lawmakers ratified the CEPA by an overwhelming vote, showing that they can cooperate on an issue of vital national interest. It is praiseworthy that the National Assembly swiftly ratified the CEPA before the deadline. With the CEPA coming into effect next year, the ROK will be able to gain an upper hand in the Indian market, which has the world's fourth largest consumption power, over other competitors. This is because the ROK is the first country, among India's major competitors, to open the door to free trade with India. Now attention is drawn to when the already-signed KORUS and ROK-EU FTAs will be ratified. Since the recently concluded FTA with the EU does not face much opposition in the ROK, it does not seem that it will be difficult to get legislative approval (to ratify) the agreement. However, ratification of the KORUS FTA, which was signed earlier than the ROK-EU FTA, is facing difficulty both in the ROK and the U.S. The atmosphere in the U.S. is, however, turning favorable after 88 Congressmen sent a letter to President Barack Obama urging him to ratify the pact. White House Economic Advisor Lawrence Summers also recently said, at the Korea-U.S. Economic Conference in Washington, "The USG is preparing itself for the FTA's ratification," implying that there was some progress in the ratification process. The problem is that since the FTA bill passed the ROK National Assembly Standing Committee this past April, the bill has not even been laid before the plenary session of the National Assembly for six months. The ruling and opposition parties approved the trade deal with India under the spirit of "giving top priority to the national interest." We hope that they will exercise the same spirit in persuading the U.S. to ratify the ROK-U.S. FTA. That is what a hard-working National Assembly should do. FEATURES -------------- U.S. AMBASSADOR STEPHENS SAYS THAT ROK HAS MADE IMPRESSIVE IMPROVEMENT IN ITS BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT... G20 WILL SERVE AS OPPORTUNITY FOR ROK TO BECOME GLOBAL HUB SEOUL 00001784 005 OF 007 (Korea Economic Daily, November 9, 2009, page 33) U.S. Ambassador to the ROK Stephens calls herself an "optimist." When I entered the U.S. Embassy's office for interview, an Indian ink painting, which is hung in the center of the wall, came into my sight first. She said with a beaming smile, "When I visited Yesan Middle school after thirty years, my students gave this (to me) as a gift to celebrate my (appointment as Ambassador.) This painting is my hometown in my heart." When asked what she thinks about some opinions that the ROK's cultural standards have not kept up with its economic growth, Stephens said that the ROK's cultural standards were high in the 1970s. These favorable remarks show her deep love for Korea as the first U.S. Ambassador to the ROK who has Korean name, Shim Eun-kyong. ¶Q. How was the first year as U.S. Ambassador to the ROK? "When I first arrived here, I think (it was) a day or so after Lehman Brothers collapsed. When I arrived, I had the economic situation very much on my mind. I was impressed by the spirit of determination I saw in Korea to approach the crisis in a very resolute fashion. (When I first came to Korea in the 1970s,) I certainly knew that Korea was changing very rapidly. Among Korean people, there was even at that time a very deep desire for a modern democratic country. Korea, I see today, exceeds in its economic vibrancy and the health of its democracy, it exceeds even what were my high expectations based upon two years of living in Korea in the 1070s. I think that Korea in a much closer time than thirty years but in the coming years will play increasingly an important role not only in the region but also on the world stage. Chairing of the G20 next year is one early sign of that." ¶Q. Is it true that you decided to become a diplomat when you worked as a peace corps volunteer? "I came to Korea in 1975 and (I had just) come out of the university. I knew many young men who had been faced with the question of going to Vietnam to fight in a war, which was dividing our society. That was the context. I came to Korea and, as I lived in Yesan, I thought that East Asia is very important to the U.S. now and (will be) even more so in the future. I saw what was happening in Korea, the sense of great potential going forward. It is even more difficult to try to understand a country that has a very different history and culture than your own. At that time, in Korean schools, especially in the boys' schools with very large classes of 70 students, they had to maintain order. Sometimes, some teachers were very severe in the way they punished the boys. Sometimes it was actually rather shocking (to see) a young student being punished physically, very severely. What do you do about it? Do you try to persuade the teacher that there is a better way? Do you leave the (teacher's) room? There is no one answer. You have to think about the situation itself and what you want to achieve and then adjust your approach. I think that is what diplomacy is about too." ¶Q. Do you think the Lee Myung-bak Government has a good relationship with the Obama Administration? "Now we have two presidents, President Lee and President Obama, who already have established a very strong working and personal relationship. President Obama is very much looking forward to an opportunity to visit Korea. This is his first visit to Korea as far as I know. He has a great interest in Korea and great respect for Korea and enthusiasm for what Korea represents in the world and what it has accomplished. (U.S. government officials) are having in-depth discussions with President Lee Myung-bak's staff on the range of subjects (to be discussed during the summit.) We don't have an agreed agenda. You can image what's on it. We have a lot of things we are working on together including economic issues in multilateral forum like the G20, very close coordination on next steps related to North Korea, and a range of other bilateral issues in which we want to cooperate more closely." SEOUL 00001784 006 OF 007 ¶Q. There has been little progress on the KORUS FTA even though it has been two years since the ROK and the U.S. signed the trade deal. Can we expect surprising news from President Obama during his visit to the ROK? "This is the agreement we all know that was agreed to and signed by our two governments over two years ago now. Since then, we had elections in both countries with a change of parties in power, we had an economic recession of historic dimensions, and we had historic turmoil in the automobile sector, particularly in the U.S. So, given all that, over the last two years or so, maybe it was not surprising that we are not a little further along in the FTA ratification process. Since January with the Obama Administration coming into office, our new U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk has met with his counterpart Ambassador Kim. They had good discussions. In September I travelled around the U.S. with Ambassador Han Duck-soo and talked about our overall relationship. The U.S. Trade Representative earlier this autumn asked for comments from all stakeholders on the FTA. My sense is that the (comments) were overwhelmingly in favor of the FTA. It is no s-e-c-r-e-t that U.S. auto companies have been very hard hit over the last year in this recession. Korean auto companies have done relatively better. We are pleased to see that Korean automakers are making an investment in the U.S. We are committed to reengaging on this and finding the right way forward. Both of our presidents have been very clear that this is an FTA that has the potential for very significant benefits." ¶Q. Does the U.S. have any post-Kim Jong-il contingency plan or any plan for a possible collapse of the North Korean regime? "In June, our two Presidents agreed, and then put in our Joint Vision Statement, our shared and deep desire to see reconciliation, peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula in a manner consistent with democracy and a free market. As an ally with the ROK, we have responsibility to be prepared for any contingency (including the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il). But, in terms of what we do as diplomats, we deal with the situation we have now, we deal with North Korea as it is now. That's why we are trying to be very clear that there is a path that the leadership in North Korea can take, which is a diplomatic path of returning to a process of denuclearization, returning to a process of implementing its commitments made (in the September 19, 2005 Joint Statement and the February 13, 2007 agreement.) So, we are trying, together with Seoul and the other partners in the Six-Party Talks, to make very clear to the current leadership in Pyongyang that we want to see progress now. We are not waiting for something else to happen. We think it's very important that the leadership in North Korea now make that choice towards a better future for its people and for its country." ¶Q. For some time, there was a perception among foreign firms that Korea is a country that is really difficult to do business in. Do you see any improvement or progress made since the inauguration of the Lee Myung-bak Administration? "In the 1980s in Busan, where I dealt with American businesses quite a bit, I heard this kind of complaint quite a bit, that it was difficult to deal with some of the Korean bureaucracies, rules were unclear, and there was a lot of concern about possible unfavorable treatment to foreign businesses. One heard many complaints like this from foreign businesses, including American businesses. There was (also) concern about the labor scene. I have been very impressed since I came back last year... by how much that has changed. So I think, in some way, that the perception that you just described is still out there, that in some quarters (doing business in Korea) is very tough. But, in fact, if you talk to the companies who are actually doing business here I don't hear that complaint. So I think the situation has actually gotten steadily better over the years from the point of view of the international business environment. Certainly President Lee Myung-bak and his administration have done a number of things that have been appreciated by the business community here, including President Lee SEOUL 00001784 007 OF 007 coming to an annual reception of the American Chamber of Commerce and giving a speech on his vision of business in Korea. That meant a lot to the business community here. They really appreciated it. They felt like it sent a very positive message throughout the bureaucracy that we were working together and that the role of foreign businesses, and American businesses, here play a positive role. So I think the atmosphere is actually very good." ¶Q. There is a controversial issue about the ROKG resending its troops to Afghanistan. "The government of the Republic of Korea, as I understand it, announced that it intends to prepare to send an increased number of both civilians and troops to Afghanistan to assist the people of Afghanistan and their efforts at stability and reconstruction. Many countries, I think about 40 countries, are participating in that effort. Speaking for the United States, we welcome Korea's announcement that it intends to make an increased contribution. In terms of the political process here that underpins that decision, that is the democratic process of the Republic of Korea. Debate is part of the process in any democratic society. Certainly, within the United States, the way forward in Afghanistan is also something that is being debated. We certainly will follow this with interest as the Korean government moves forward with this plan." ¶Q. What are the areas you think that Korea should work more to become a truly global leader? "My own sense is that Korea's image in the world is quite strong and has grown even more positive. People, especially in the U.S., know that Korea's economic success and its democratic success are growing daily. I think it is important that Korea is participating more actively in the international community and playing more of a leadership role that reflects its economic weight such as chairing the G20 ." STEPHENS