SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; October 5, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 SEOUL 001582 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; October 5, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo Can Chinese Premier's Visit to Pyongyang Become Turning Point for N. Korea to Return to Six-Party Talks? JoongAng Ilbo, All TVs "China will Make Great Contributions to Peace and Stability on Korean Peninsula;" China's Premier Arrives in Pyongyang for Meeting with Kim Jong-il Today Dong-a Ilbo National Intelligence Service, Korea Coast Guard Seize Four N. Korean Containers Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo Chinese Premier Greeted by N. Korean Leader Kim Jong-il upon Arrival at Pyongyang's Airport Seoul Shinmun 67 Percent of Local Government Chiefs Favor Merger of Cities, Counties and Districts DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- According to ROKG sources, the National Intelligence Service and the Korea Coast Guard seized four North Korean containers from a Panama-flagged cargo vessel docked at a new port in Busan last month. This is the first time since the UN Security Council adopted resolutions sanctioning North Korea that the ROK has inspected North Korean cargo and blocked its distribution. (Dong-a) The 11 North Koreans who arrived at the ROK's east coast on Oct. 1 made it clear that they wished to defect to the ROK. According to the Unification Ministry, however, Pyongyang urged Seoul twice to send them back. (All) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao arrived in Pyongyang yesterday for a three-day visit. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il personally greeted Wen at the airport, a rare gesture that raises expectations for a breakthrough on the North Korean nuclear issue. (All) North Korean Premier Kim Yong-il was quoted as saying during a meeting with the Chinese premier that North Korea is willing to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula through bilateral and multilateral talks. (All) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -N. Korea -------------- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's arrival in Pyongyang yesterday for a three-day state visit received prominent press coverage today. According to media reports, Wen's visit is the first by a Chinese premier in 18 years, and North Korean leader Chairman Kim Jong-il personally greeted Wen at the airport, a rare gesture that raises expectations for a breakthrough on the North Korean nuclear issue. ; Chinese Premier Wen was widely quoted as stating immediately after landing in Pyongyang: "China will make great contributions to the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula." Most media also noted that North Korean Premier Kim Yong-il met with the Chinese premier and quoted him as saying during the meeting: SEOUL 00001582 002 OF 006 "North Korea is willing to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula through bilateral and multilateral talks." Conservative Chosun Ilbo cited experts as speculating that the two countries will have discussions on various joint projects as well as oil and food aid worth at least hundreds of millions of dollars. Chosun went on to comment: "China, in return, wants North Korea to return to the Six-Party Talks. The talks are Beijing's best hope of maintaining the initiative in denuclearization efforts." Newspapers carried the following front-and inside-page headlines: "Can Chinese Premier's Visit Become Turning Point for N. Korea to Return to Six-Party Talks?; Chinese Premier Wen Visits N. Korea Carrying Economic Gift" (conservative Chosun Ilbo); "Kim Jong-il's Special Treatment to Chinese Premier Designed for Free Economic Aid from China" (right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo); "Will N. Korea Give China Gift Regarding Six-Party Talks?" (moderate Hankook Ilbo); and "Political Situation on Korean Peninsula Enters Negotiation Phase to Dismantle N. Korea's Nuclear Program" (left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun) Conservative Chosun Ilbo editorialized today: "While stating its opposition to a nuclear-armed North Korea, China has given North Korea breathing room at every crucial moment by providing it with massive economic aid. ... Unless Premier Wen Jiabao makes it clear to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il that there is no alternative to dismantling the North's nuclear program, the international community will doubt China's real intentions toward North Korea." Conservative Dong-a Ilbo's editorial observed: "Kim extended an extraordinary welcome by greeting Wen at the airport in person, so there is a chance the North Korean leader will make meaningful comments on his country's nuclear program in consideration of Beijing's dignity. ... Kim must keep in mind that Beijing has constantly supported the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Beijing would rather hear Pyongyang's declaration of a return to the Six-Party Talks rather than the warm welcome that mobilized hundreds of thousands of North Koreans." In another editorial on Saturday, Dong-a argued: "Without China's cooperation, international efforts to denuclearize North Korea will likely fail. Beijing's aid to Pyongyang should be carried out in a way that maintains international cooperation and prompts North Korea to make substantial progress in nuclear dismantlement." Conservative Dong-a Ilbo today front-paged a report citing ROKG sources as saying yesterday that the National Intelligence Service and the Korea Coast Guard seized four North Korean containers from a Panama-flagged cargo vessel docked at a new port in Busan last month. The report noted that this is the first time since the UN Security Council adopted resolutions sanctioning North Korea that the ROK has inspected North Korean cargo and blocked its distribution. OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- IS N. KOREA READY TO RETURN TO 6-PARTY TALKS? (Chosun Ilbo, October 5, 2009, page 27) Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao began a three-day visit to North Korea on Sunday. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il personally greeted him at Pyongyang Airport. The official purpose of Wen's visit is to commemorate 60 years of relations between the two countries, but the meeting between Wen and Kim is widely expected to lead to a turning point in multilateral efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear standoff, with hopes that the North will take the opportunity to announce its return to Six-Party nuclear talks. During last month's visit to North Korea by Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo, an envoy for Chinese President Hu Jintao, Kim said his regime wished to resolve the nuclear standoff through "bilateral and multilateral talks." There is now hope that that the world will get SEOUL 00001582 003 OF 006 a clearer picture during Wen's visit of what Kim meant by "multilateral talks." There is speculation that the North is trying to change the framework of the Six-Party negotiations. Some are wondering whether it will propose three-way talks with the United States and China or bilateral talks with the U.S. while the other four countries in the Six-Party framework act as observers. Regardless of which scenario proves to be correct, it is unacceptable for the ROK, the host of the G20 summit, to be left out of nuclear negotiations whose outcome will determine its fate. China has consistently supported the Six-Party talks. There is a broad consensus within the international community that they are the best way to peacefully resolve the North Korean nuclear standoff. Hopefully Wen's visit will lead to North Korea returning to them. (Wen's visit) marks a turning point. But there have been so many turning points in the talks, and none of them have led to the dismantling of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. All they have done is buy the North more time. Even if North Korea returns to the Six-Party Talks, chances are slim that it will abandon its nuclear arms program. North Korea has rejected a package deal offered by the ROK and the United States. It appears that another round of prolonged talks may be in store, which may well mean that there is no hope of getting North Korea to scrap its nuclear program. The standoff is also a problem for China. If Beijing had taken a firm stance by putting top priority on getting Kim Jong-il to scrap the program, it could have avoided the nightmare of a nuclear-armed North Korea. While stating its opposition to a nuclear-armed North Korea, China has given North Korea breathing room at every crucial moment by providing it with massive economic aid. Now Wen has traveled to North Korea carrying with him promises of massive financial support again. If the North returns to the Six-Party talks in exchange for such aid, it probably has no intention of getting rid of its nuclear weapons and is merely interested in getting out from under international sanctions. Unless Premier Wen Jiabao makes it clear to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il that there is no alternative to dismantling the North's nuclear program, the international community will doubt China's real intentions toward North Korea. And the response of the ROK, which stands to suffer the most from a nuclear-armed North Korea, and other neighboring countries will change dramatically. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) BOAT PEOPLE SHOW N. KOREANS' GRIM REALITY (Dong-a Ilbo, October 5, 2009, page 31) Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has started a three-day visit to North Korea, the first by a Chinese premier in 18 years, as both countries mark the 60th anniversary of bilateral ties. The ROK's attention, however, is focused on how the visit will affect the North Korean nuclear standoff. How North Korean leader Kim Jong-il responds to Beijing's request to return to the six-party nuclear talks will determine Pyongyang's fate. Following Wen's Pyongyang visit, the leaders of the ROK, China and Japan will hold a summit in Beijing Saturday. If North Korea changes, the three leaders will revise their strategies toward Pyongyang. If North Korea intends to give up its nuclear program and return to dialogue, it has an opportunity it cannot afford to miss. Kim went to Sunan Airport near Pyongyang to personally greet Wen. North Korea's Korean Central Television said Wen "received an enthusiastic welcome at the airport and by crowds of people from all walks of life on the miles-long streets of Pyongyang." Kim extended an extraordinary welcome by greeting Wen at the airport in person, so there is a chance the North Korean leader will make meaningful comments on his country's nuclear program in SEOUL 00001582 004 OF 006 consideration of Beijing's dignity. Wen said upon arrival in Pyongyang, "China will make important contributions to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula." Kim must keep in mind that Beijing has constantly supported the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Beijing would rather hear Pyongyang's declaration of a return to the Six-Party Talks rather than the warm welcome that mobilized hundreds of thousands of North Koreans. North Korea cannot afford to remain nonchalant at this point. Eleven North Korean defectors were found on a small fishing boat Thursday. While South Koreans headed for their hometowns to celebrate the Chuseok holidays, the 11 North Koreans risked their lives. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon the same day submitted a report to the UN Security Council saying that more than a third of North Koreans are suffering from hunger due to food shortages. Earlier, the World Food Program and the Food and Agriculture Organization also warned that nine million North Koreans will suffer from hunger this year. Even the head of the North Korean Red Cross, Jang Jae On, implicitly asked the ROK for food aid during the inter-Korean family reunions at Mount Kumgang Sept. 26, saying, "It would be nice if the ROK does a corresponding favor to the North." The North conducted its second nuclear test in May, but the only thing it secured was a worsening food shortage. Over the 10-year reign of liberal governments in the ROK, Pyongyang barely survived the food shortages with the help of rice and fertilizer aid from Seoul. If the North does not give up its nuclear program, North Koreans will keep fleeing their country and go hungry. How much longer can Pyongyang lie to its people through propaganda like "The Dear Leader appreciated the August Full Moon, praying for the happiness of the people?" The ROK must also devise comprehensive and well-planned measures to handle mass defections of North Koreans by sea. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) ¶N. KOREA SHOULD RESPOND TO INTERNATIONAL OFFERS (Dong-a Ilbo, October 2, 2009, page 23) North Korea yesterday rejected ROK President Lee Myung-bak's "grand bargain" proposal on getting Pyongyang to get rid of its nuclear program. The North's state-run Korea Central News Agency said that Seoul is "seriously mistaken" if it calculated that Pyongyang will accept the "ridiculous proposal" for the normalization of relations and economic aid. In a speech Monday to the U.N. General Assembly, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Pak Kil-yon said the North will "act responsibly" in the management and use of its nuclear weapons and on non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament. Yet Pyongyang's latest comment suggests the North is behaving like a nuclear state. Sunday will mark the fourth anniversary of the inter-Korean summit declaration between the late ROK President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. The inter-Korean declaration reached at the event put a huge burden on Seoul through inter-Korean economic cooperation projects. The cost of the Oct. 4 declaration is an estimated 14.3 trillion won (12.2 billion U.S. dollars) for Seoul. Considering the size of the North's economy, which is one-36th of the ROK's, the agreement is nothing short of scattering money over the North. Signed just four months before the end of the Roh Administration, the declaration put an enormous burden on the succeeding Lee Government. The incumbent administration cannot afford to honor the declaration, which failed to mention the North's nuclear program but put a unilateral financial burden on the ROK. Going through the process of coordination with other parties to the Six-Party nuclear talks, the declaration seeks the North's denuclearization in return for "whatever it wants," including large-scale economic aid, normalization of ties with the U.S. and a guarantee of the communist system under Kim. In his visit to Seoul this week, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg spoke of a "tremendous opportunity" for Pyongyang to return to the negotiating SEOUL 00001582 005 OF 006 table. If North Korea rejects this offer, it will face harsh international sanctions so Pyongyang should make a wise judgment. During his three-day visit to Pyongyang (which started) Sunday, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao reportedly plans to sign agreements with the North in economy, trade and tourism. In October 2005, China provided two billion U.S. dollars in aid to the North when President Hu Jintao visited Pyongyang. According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency in Seoul, trade with China accounted for 73 percent of the North's external trade last year excluding trade with the ROK. Without China's cooperation, international efforts for North Korea's nuclear abandonment will likely fail. Beijing's aid to Pyongyang should be carried out in a way that maintains international cooperation and prompts North Korea to make substantial progress in nuclear abandonment. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) FEATURES -------------- NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SERVICE, KOREA COAST GUARD SEIZE FOUR N. KOREAN CONTAINERS (Dong-a Ilbo, October 5, 2009, Front Page) By Reporters Koh Ki-jung, Yoon Hee-kak and Cha Joon-ho It has been learned that the National Intelligence Service (NIS) and the Korea Coast Guard seized four North Korean containers (from a container ship) in ROK waters. This measure marks the first time that the ROK has inspected North Korean cargo and blocked its distribution since the UN Security Council adopted a resolution sanctioning North Korea after its second nuclear test on May 25. ROKG officials said on October 4 that the Korea Coast Guard laid an embargo on a Panama-flagged cargo vessel at Busan New Port and seized four North Korean containers aboard the ship in the middle of September and is currently analyzing their contents. At that time, the Korea Coast Guard took the step at the request of the National Intelligence Service. The vessel reportedly entered Busan New Port via China. An ROKG official confirmed the report, saying, "Although we cannot disclose the details yet, it is correct that we secured North Korea-related containers last month." Because of the sensitivity of this incident, the ROKG is keeping tight-lipped about it. ROKG officials declined to comment on how they obtained the North Korean cargo, what was in the containers and where the ship was headed. However, because the North Korean containers were seized at the behest of the NIS, this issue appears linked to the UN sanctions on the North. A foreign policy and security expert said, "Under UN Security Council Resolution 1874, cargos of weapons, strategic materials, and luxuries coming from and going to North Korea can be inspected and seized." In July, the ROKG submitted its progress report on strengthening the cargo inspection of North Korean vessels to the UN Security Council. The Kang Nam 1 left the North Korean port of Nampo in mid June and was headed for Myanmar. However, the ship reversed its course off the coast of Southeast Asia and returned to the North in early July after being trailed by the U.S. under UN Security Council sanctions. At that time, the U.S. intensified pressure on Pyongyang by actively cooperating with China and Southeast countries. Therefore, there is a high possibility that the ROK may have seized the North Korean containers with the cooperation of other countries as part of (international) efforts to enforce sanctions against the North. There also is a likelihood that the seizure resulted from the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). On May 26, a day after SEOUL 00001582 006 OF 006 North Korea's second nuclear test, the ROKG announced that it will participate fully in the PSI. The PSI was formed to increase international cooperation in interdicting shipments of nuclear weapons, biochemical weapons and missiles. The PSI allows states to stop and search ships suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction within their territorial waters and to refuse the transport of proliferation shipments through their territory. Another ROKG official said that related authorities will explain the seizure after some time passes. When the analysis of the containers is completed, the ROK will make a determination (what to do about the cargo) after consulting with neighboring countries, and negotiating with North Korea and strategically considering the Korean Peninsula situation. STEPHENS