SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; September 23, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SEOUL 001512 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; September 23, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo, Hankook Ilbo, Hankyoreh Shinmun, Segye Ilbo, All TVs Three Public Workers Unions Vote to Merge into Single Group and Join Militant Umbrella Labor Organization JoongAng Ilbo KAIST Keeps Top Spot in University Rankings for 2009; Korea University, Kyung Hee University, and Hankook University of Foreign Studies Move Up in Rankings Dong-a Ilbo Prosecutors Launch Investigations into Irregularities at Conglomerates Seoul Shinmun Prime Minister Nominee: "I Have No Intention of Running for Presidency" DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- President Lee Myung-bak, in a Sept. 21 luncheon jointly hosted by the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations, the Korea Society and the Asia Society in New York, said that the North Korean economy has to improve before the two Koreas can consider unification. He went on to say: "Unification with North Korea is important, but it's more important for the two Koreas to live in peace." (All) According to a report by the Missile Defense Agency affiliated with the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. has classified the ROK as one of the "nations expressing interest in missile defense," a situation that deserves attention with regard to the future establishment of a missile defense shield in Northeast Asia. (Dong-a, Hankook, Segye, Seoul, OhmyNews) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- According to Japan's Kyodo News Agency, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il told visiting Chinese Presidential Envoy Dai Bingguo on Sept. 18 that he would prioritize talks with the U.S. to resolve the North's nuclear issue. (JoongAng, Segye, Seoul) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -N. Korea -------------- Most newspapers noted Sept. 21 press remarks by State Department Spokesman Ian Kelly, in which he said: "There are no plans to meet with any officials from North Korea (at the UN General Assembly) up in New York. There's been no decision on whether or not Ambassador Bosworth will accept the (North's) invitation to visit (the communist state.)" Conservative Chosun Ilbo juxtaposed these remarks with North Korea's continued failure to confirm a meeting between Ambassador Bosworth and Kang Sok-ju, the North's First Vice Foreign Minister responsible for Pyongyang's diplomatic affairs including the nuclear issue, if Ambassador Bosworth visits Pyongyang. Chosun headlined its story: "U.S., North Korea Wage 'War of Nerves' Ahead of Bilateral Talks." Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo, conservative Segye Ilbo and moderate Seoul Shinmun replayed a Sept. 22 Kyodo News Agency report quoting North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as telling visiting Chinese Presidential Envoy Dai Bingguo on Sept. 18 that he would prioritize talks with the U.S. to resolve the North's nuclear issue. SEOUL 00001512 002 OF 003 -UN Summit on Climate Change -------------- Most ROK media carried reports quoting President Lee Myung-bak as proposing at the UN Climate Summit in New York yesterday that the UN should create a "registry" to encourage developing countries to join efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and monitor their related programs. According to media reports, President Lee made this proposal to mediate differences between developed and emerging economies over a future climate change strategy. Newspapers carried the following headlines: "China, India Take Forward-Looking Attitude on Climate Change to Pressure U.S.; Obama Urges Efforts from Developing Countries, but Fails to Mention Emissions Cut Target" (conservative Chosun Ilbo); "(Chinese President) Hu Jintao Pledges to Curb Carbon Dioxide Emissions" (right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo); and "Same Bed, Different Dreams: U.S., China Pay 'Lip Service' without Presenting Concrete Numbers or Alternatives." (moderate Hankook Ilbo) OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- OBAMA SHOULD SHOW CAPACITY, NOT CHARM (Chosun Ilbo, September 23, 2009, page 35: Excerpts) By Senior reporter Kang In-sun U.S. President Barack Obama appeared on five TV programs on September 20. It seems that he intends to explain health care reforms and the Afghanistan issue directly to the public. But some are raising concerns whether President Obama is trying to tackle all issues only with his charm. According to a recent Gallup poll, Obama still scored high in personal leadership. 66% respondents said that Obama is a strong and resolute leader and 64% said that he understands pending issues well. However, in response to a question whether Obama runs the government effectively, 55% answered affirmatively, which is an 11% drop from this May's 66%. At present, the primary factors for determining the Obama Administration's success or failure concern health care reforms at home and the Afghanistan issue abroad. These issues are so complicated that his personal charm or communication capability alone will not work. His predecessors, including Roosevelt, Truman, Nixon, Carter, and Clinton, wanted to deliver on health care reforms but failed. Experts believe that the concept of government-controlled health care system is not popular in the U.S. where the welfare system is considered the weakest among the developed western countries. The Afghanistan issue is more challenging. Despite Obama's strong popularity in the international community, the U.S. is increasingly bearing the sole burden. Even former President George W. Bush shared the burden with the international society even though he was criticized for the Iraq war. However, President Obama is only receiving support from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in sending additional troops to Afghanistan. A commander in Afghanistan has already warned that the Afghan mission will fail without additional military presence. It is said that a president's popularity is like vegetables which wither even if they are well-stored. People may begin to feel tired of Obama's low-tone voice. The international community as well as the U.S. may want to say to President Obama, "Show us your capability, not your charm." PRECONDITION FOR PRESIDENT LEE'S "GRAND BARGAIN" IS RESTORATION OF TRUST WITH N. KOREA (Hankook Ilbo, September 23, 2009, Page 39) SEOUL 00001512 003 OF 003 President Lee Myung-bak, who is visiting the U.S., has offered a "grand bargain" on the North Korean nuclear issue during his speech at a luncheon hosted by three organizations, including the Council on Foreign Relations. Under the proposal, North Korea will be asked to dismantle the core parts of its nuclear program in exchange for security assurances and international economic aid. From a broad perspective, this proposal is in line with President Lee's "Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness Plan," but in the sense that the "grand bargain" emphasizes the simultaneity of nuclear dismantlement and compensation, it can be said to be a development from the previous policy, which stressed, "Compensation should come only after nuclear dismantlement." Although the opposition Democratic Party criticizes the proposal, describing it as no progress or even retreat from "Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness Plan," that is not necessarily true. The Democratic Party and liberals need to remember that former President Kim Dae-jung also strongly advocated a grand bargain on the nuclear issue. Since the step-by-step approach toward the nuclear issue took so long and alternated between progress, retreat, and delay, it has failed to prevent North Korea from bolstering its nuclear arsenal. This is why former President Kim also supported the resolution of the nuclear issue through a grand bargain, and President Lee's proposal is based on the same understanding. The grand bargain, however, would be meaningless unless Pyongyang reacts positively. Basically, a swap between nuclear dismantlement, and security assurances and economic aid has asymmetry disadvantageous to North Korea. Once the North Korean nuclear program is dismantled, it is very difficult to restore it to its original state, but its corresponding rewards are always possible to withdraw. Therefore, in order to realize the grand bargain, we should convince the North that it will not be betrayed after dismantling its nuclear programs. President Lee's proposal for the grand bargain can be seen as expressing his intention to stop sitting on the sideline and take a leadership role in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. The schedule of his visit to the U.S. is said to be part of the process of taking such leadership. Still, if this is not accompanied by efforts to restore and deepen trust with North Korea through the improvement of inter-Korean relations, President Lee's initiative could end up being an empty rhetoric. The answer is already out there; it is a virtuous cycle of improvement in inter-Korean ties and the resolution of the nuclear issue, which the ROKG has also emphasized. STEPHENS