CHUNG MONG-JOON ASSUMES GNP CHAIR; STAGE SET FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001451

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: CHUNG MONG-JOON ASSUMES GNP CHAIR; STAGE SET FOR
MORE FACTIONAL FRICTION

REF: A. 08SEOUL0062 (CHUNG MONG-JOON)

B. SEOUL 0653 (INSTITUTIONALIZING THE OPPOSITION)

C. SEOUL 1420 (CABINET RESHUFFLE)

Classified By: POL Counselor Dorothy A. Delahanty. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
.


1. (C) Summary: Chung Mong-joon assumed the chair of the
Grand National Party (GNP) on September 7 after the former
chair, Park Hee-tae, resigned to run for an open seat in the
October 28 by-elections. Chung, a six-term National Assembly
Member, was an independent until joining the GNP in 2007, and
his rise to the party's highest position is indicative of his
influence and aspirations to run in the 2012 presidential
election. From his new platform, Chung, who supported
President Lee Myung-bak in the 2007 election, will compete
with GNP presidential aspirant Park Geun-hye, among others,
for influence in the party. With the opposition Democratic
Party (DP) yet to find its footing after being trounced in
the 2007 presidential election and 2008 National Assembly
elections, for the foreseeable future, the most consequential
political debates will unfold within the GNP. End Summary.

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Chung Assumes GNP Chair
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2. (SBU) Chung Mong-joon assumed the chair of the Grand
National Party (GNP) on September 7 after the former chair,
Park Hee-tae, resigned to run for an open seat in Yangsan in
the October 28 by-elections. Chung, as runner-up to Park in
the July 2008 race for chair, per party regulations, will
fill the remainder of Park's two-year term, unless the party
opts to hold an earlier convention.


3. (C) Chung, head of the Korea-U.S. Parliamentary Friendship
Association, has been supportive of the U.S.-ROK alliance.
In January 2008, then President-elect Lee Myung-bak entrusted
Chung with leading the Presidential Transition Committee
delegation to Washington (Ref A). Chung has publicly
expressed his gratitude to the U.S. for its role in the
Korean War and tells the story of being born in Pusan in 1951
under the protection of the U.S. military against the advance
of North Korean forces.


4. (SBU) Chung, a six-term National Assembly Member, was
first elected in 1988 and represents a district in Ulsan. He
was an independent until joining the GNP in 2007. Chung is
the sixth son of Hyundai founder Chung Ju-yung and is the
largest shareholder of Hyundai Heavy Industries. According
to Forbes Magazine, Chung is the third wealthiest person in
Korea with an estimated net worth of USD 1.3 billion.

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Chung's Embrace of the Right
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5. (C) Chung ran for president as an independent in 2002 but
dropped out of the race to support Roh Moo-hyun in a close
race against the GNP's Lee Hoi-chang. Despite withdrawing
his endorsement of Roh hours before the election, it is
widely believed that his support in the run up to the
election gave Roh his unexpected narrow margin of victory
over Lee Hoi-chang. In an August 11 meeting with the
Political Minister-Counselor, Chung said he regretted helping
Roh make it to the Blue House. Chung said he has since
concluded that the left wing of Korean politics, represented
by former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, believed
the ROK was an illegitimate state and that the DPRK had acted
nobly in expelling the Japanese from the peninsula and
preserving Korea's heritage. Chung said he once heard Roh
say, "South Korea is a country where justice failed and
opportunity flourished."

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Chung's Affect on Balance of Power within the GNP
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6. (C) As party chair, Chung will play an important role in
the party's nomination of candidates for the important June
2010 regional elections for governors, mayors, and local
legislatures. Observers expect Chung to be a more active and
influential party chair than the largely inconsequential Park
Hee-tae, who was elected party chair as a concession after
having been denied a nomination to run in the April 2008
National Assembly elections.


7. (C) Chung's leadership will likely benefit the dominant

pro-Lee Myung-bak faction within the GNP at the expense of
the pro-Park Geun-hye group. Given that Chung has all but
announced his intention to run in the 2012 presidential race
and given speculation that he would have President Lee's
support (Ref A),a rivalry with Park Geun-hye, Chung's
primary school classmate, is certain. Nevertheless, Chung is
not personally popular in the party, which he only joined two
years ago. And, in conservative circles, there is lingering
resentment over Chung's role in helping Roh Moo-hyun eke out
a narrow win over Lee Hoi-chang in 2002. So, controlling the
party will be a test of Chung's political skills.

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State of Play in the National Assembly
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8. (C) The opposition DP's success in blocking and delaying
the GNP's agenda in the National Assembly notwithstanding,
the GNP controls a commanding majority of seats. While the
DP's success was due in part to the value the Korean public
places on consensus (Ref B),the DP also benefited from
former GNP chair Park Hee-tae's weak leadership and the lack
of coordination between the GNP and the Blue House. But with
Chung's strong leadership and the Blue House's intent,
signaled in the recent cabinet reshuffle (Ref C),to
coordinate more closely with the National Assembly, the GNP,
if it does not cripple itself with factional infighting,
could be a in a strong position.


9. (C) If the GNP has the opportunity to exercise more
control over the National Assembly, it is also true that the
level of partisanship and polarization that has erupted in
physical confrontations among lawmakers in the past year will
also likely increase. Until recently, there were three
negotiating blocs in the National Assembly: the GNP, the DP,
and a Liberty Forward Party (LFP)/Renewal of Korea Party
(ROKP) alliance. Negotiating blocs negotiate the National
Assembly agenda and have representation on committees. The
LFP/ROKP bloc dissolved on August 30 when an LFP Member
resigned the party, leaving the bloc one Member short of the
necessary 20 Members. The conservative LFP will likely
support much of the center-right GNP's agenda, but, because
of the bad blood between LFP chair Lee Hoi-chang and Chung
Mong-joon leftover from Chung's role in Lee's failed 2002 bid
for the presidency as the GNP nominee, it is unlikely that
the LFP would support a strategic alliance with the GNP. The
result is that the GNP and the DP, without the benefit of a
mediating bloc, will be left to negotiate the National
Assembly agenda and manage committee business; the DP has
pledged to be uncooperative.


10. (U) The 299 seats of the National Assembly are currently
divided as follows:

168 - Grand National Party
84 - Democratic Party
17 - Liberty Forward Party
5 - Democratic Labor Party
5 - Pro-Park (Geun-hye) Alliance
3 - Renewal of Korea Party
2 - New Progressive Party
8 - Independents
7 - Vacant Seats
TOKOLA