CABINET RESHUFFLE SIGNALS SHIFT TO CENTER;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001420

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2019
TAGS: PGOV KS
SUBJECT: CABINET RESHUFFLE SIGNALS SHIFT TO CENTER;
INTRODUCES NEW POLITICAL PLAYER

Classified By: POL M/C James L. Wayman. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (U) Summary: The Blue House announced a cabinet reshuffle
on September 3, replacing six ministers, including the Prime
Minister and Minister of National Defense, and creating a new
position of Minister for Special Affairs. The first major
cabinet reshuffle since President Lee Myung-bak took office
in February 2008 appears to be an attempt by the President to
reorient his administration to the political center and
demonstrate his openness to political and regional diversity.
The biggest surprise was the nomination of Chung Un-chan for
Prime Minster. Chung, a former president of Seoul National
University, is new to politics, but he considered running in
the 2007 presidential election as a left-of-center candidate
and has publicly criticized Lee Administration economic
policies. Barring unforeseen scandals, the National Assembly
is expected to confirm the nominees. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: This move by President Lee should be
received favorably by the public and increase his approval
ratings, which are already trending higher. In selecting the
new members of his cabinet, President Lee is clearly trying
to address his critics' complaints that previous appointees
have been too closely aligned with the narrow demographic of
wealthy conservatives from southeastern Korea -- an effort
most notable in his decision to appoint politically liberal
economist Chung Un-chan as prime minister. In the selection
of pro-Park Geun-hye lawmaker Choi Kyung-hwan as Minister of
Knowledge and Economy, Lee is likely trying to reach out to
supporters of his political rival within the general public.
Pro-Park lawmakers, however, are irritated at Chung's
appointment as Prime Minister and anticipate that he will be
a powerful centrist counterpoint to Park Geun-hye's rightist
stance. This will likely erode Park's party power and allows
President Lee to compromise between the two extreme
positions. Finally, the selection of the strongly
pro-American Kim Tae-young as Defense Minister bodes well for
bilateral defense cooperation, although his hawkish
reputation may make him the most controversial nominee. End
Comment.

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New Line-up
--------------


3. (C) The Blue House announced a long-anticipated cabinet
reshuffle on September 3. Changes and new personalities:

-- Prime Minister: Chung Un-chan. Chung, an economics
professor and native of Chungcheong Province (near Daejon),
was president of Seoul National University from 2002-2006.
He is new to politics but speculated about running in the
2007 presidential election as a left-of-center candidate. He
has been publicly critical of President Lee Myung-bak's
economic policies.

-- Minister of National Defense: General Kim Tae-young.
Kim is currently serving as the ROK Chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff.

-- Minister of Justice: Lee Gui-nam. Lee is a former
career prosecutor and served as Deputy Minister of Justice
from January to July 2009. He is a native of South Jeolla
Province.

-- Minister of Knowledge and Economy: Choi Kyung-hwan.
Choi is a second-term, pro-Park, GNP lawmaker from North
Gyeongsan Provice and currently serves on the Strategy and
Finance Committee.

-- Minister of Labor: Yim Tae-hee. Yim is a third-term,
pro-Lee, GNP lawmaker from Gyeongi Province and currently
serves on the National Defense Committee.

-- Minister of Gender Equality: Baek Hee-young. Baek is a
renowned professor of nutrition at Seoul National University.

-- Minister for Special (or Extraordinary) Affairs: Joo
Ho-young. Joo is a second-term GNP lawmaker from North
Gyeongsang Province who has been both pro-Park and pro-Lee.
He is currently serving on the Culture and Broadcasting
Committee.


4. (C) Nominating Chung Un-chan for Prime Minister was a bold
move and introduces a new and potentially formidable player
to the political scene. If he and Lee Myung-bak manage to
work well together, Chung could provide a powerful centrist
counterpoint to rightest forces in the GNP led by Park
Geun-hye. By setting Chung up as Park's foil, Lee can

negotiate between the two. Park's people are irritated by
the move, but feel they cannot complain; Park earlier this
year refused to allow her ally, Kim Moo-sung, to take on a
party leadership role and a pro-Park lawmaker -- Choi
Kyung-hwan -- was appointed in this cabinet shuffle. While
it might look to the public as though Lee is trying to reach
out to both liberal and conservative political opponents,
Park supporters see Chung's appointment as a direct challenge
to Park Geun-hye. If true, the President has won on two
fronts -- he has met public demands by forming a more
diversified cabinet and potentially limited the power of his
key opponent within the party.


5. (C) The opposition parties are most likely to criticize
General Kim Tae-young's nomination as Defense Minister.
Media reports have cast him as a hawk, which may presage
Democratic Party attacks during his hearings. Kim was
saddled with this label last year after he told Parliament
that he would order an attack on North Korea if it deployed
tactical nuclear weapons. Kim is well known to the Embassy
and USFK and tends to be center-right in his policy leanings.
He assumed his position in March 2008. General Kim supports
OPCON transfer and believes the ROK military should assume
responsibility for national defense. Kim was instrumental in
streamlining the "Defense Reform 2020" plan published in June
2009 and designed to modernize all branches of the ROK
military. He has extensive experience dealing with national
security planning and foreign affairs. From 2004-05 Kim
commanded the Capital Defense Command while President Lee
Myung-bak was mayor of Seoul. The two are rumored to have
developed a close relationship at that time. A Seoul native,
Kim attended Kyong-gi high school and graduated from the
Korean Military Academy in 1973.


6. (SBU) Of the six new appointees, three are sitting
lawmakers. Korea's unique hybrid of presidential and
parliamentary democracy enables directly-elected lawmakers to
assume cabinet posts while retaining their positions in the
National Assembly. Those lawmakers who were elected through
the proportional ticket have to resign their seats. None of
Lee's three parliamentarian cabinet picks are proportional
representatives.


7. (SBU) In this reshuffle, the Blue House added a new
Cabinet position to the existing line-up. The Minister for
Special (or Extraordinary) Affairs position, filled by Joo
Ho-young, disappeared from the cabinet in 1998 when the Kim
Dae-jung administration downsized the cabinet structure. In
the past, this individual often focused on political affairs,
which is what Joo is expected to do. In comments to the
press, Joo said that he also hoped to improve communication
between the National Assembly and the Blue House, potentially
addressing a common complaint among GNP lawmakers.

--------------
Confirmation Process
--------------


8. (SBU) The administration will now send the nominations to
the National Assembly for approval. According to Korean law,
the National Assembly must establish a special committee
consisting of 13 members and complete confirmation hearings
within 20 days. The committee chair then delivers his
recommendation to the National Assembly speaker who gives it
to the president. The President, however, is not legally
obligated to accept the committee's recommendation. The
nomination for Prime Minister is handled differently. This
nominee has to be approved by a majority in the National
Assembly.
TOKOLA