NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CONVENES; OPPOSITION CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SEOUL 001407 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV KS SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CONVENES; OPPOSITION CONTINUES PROTEST REF: SEOUL 1154 (GNP PASSES MEDIA REFORM) Classified By: POL M/C James L. Wayman. Reasons 1.4 (b),(d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The National Assembly (NA) convened on September 1 to begin deliberations on the budget and conduct a state audit, and the opposition Democratic Party (DP) immediately staged a walkout as part of its continuing to protest against the ruling Grand National Party's (GNP) passage of media reform bills in July (reftel). DP Chairman Chung Sye-kyun did not return to the NA, following through on his resignation in protest of the media reform bills. Though there is not an immediate threat to unseat Chung as DP Chairman, several factions in the DP are vying for control of the party after the deaths of former Presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Dae-jung left the opposition without a leader of national stature. Meanwhile, President Lee Myung-bak's approval ratings are at the highest level since the 2008 beef protests nearly crippled his administration. The President's approval numbers are a boon to the GNP, but it will have its work cut out as it attempts to engage the opposition on controversial issues like the budget, the parliamentary audit, and constitutional revision. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Comment: The DP failed in its effort to use Roh Moo-hyun's and Kim Dae-jung's deaths to mobilize support for the party. To the contrary, the public gave President Lee Myung-bak high marks for his magnanimous handling of the politically combustible passing of the opposition's torch bearers. Moreover, Kim Dae-jung's and Roh Moo-hyun's deaths highlighted the absence of DP leaders prepared to fill Kim's and Roh's shoes. Until the DP identifies new leaders and develops a new party platform, the opposition will continue its attempts to deadlock the NA and is unlikely to be party to any substantive legislation. -------------- NA Convenes; DP Walks Out -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The National Assembly (NA) convened a regular session on September 1 to begin deliberations on the government's annual budget proposals and to conduct the annual audit of state operations. The opposition Democratic Party (DP),still protesting the Grand National Party's (GNP) passage of media reform bills in July (reftel),could not delay the legally-mandated session but staged a walkout to publicize its efforts to repeal the reforms. The DP has appealed passage of the reforms to the Constitutional Court where a decision is pending; it is widely expected that the court will uphold the reforms. ¶4. (C) Besides wanting to continue its protest of the media reform bills, the DP's walkout was intended to pressure the GNP to delay the state audit until October. Because state audits put the government in the position of defending its performance, the DP wants the audit to coincide with campaigning for the October 28 by-elections. The GNP pushed to complete the audit by the end of September. Ahn Sang-soo, the GNP floor leader, issued a statement saying he would seek an agreement with the DP on an agenda for the session, but, if consensus was not possible, the GNP would invoke "the principle of democracy" -- widely interpreted to mean that the GNP would use its solid majority to act without the DP's cooperation. ¶5. (C) DP lawmakers returned to the NA despite having submitted resignation letters en masse to DP Chairman Chung Sye-kyun to protest the media reform bills. Chairman Chung, however, along with two other lawmakers who had submitted resignation letters to NA Speaker Kim Hyung-o, vowed not to return to the NA. Chung, nevertheless, will continue as DP Chairman. -------------- DP Struggles to Find Its Voice -------------- ¶6. (C) In the wake of Kim Dae-jung's and Roh Moo-hyun's deaths, the DP is without a leader of national stature and several factions are vying to control the party. Chairman Chung is attempting to unify the party but is widely viewed as a weak placeholder until a strong leader emerges. Indicative of the dearth of obvious leaders, party members often mention UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon as the DP's best hope for new leadership -- without any indication that the career diplomat has DP leanings. Former DP presidential candidate Chung Dong-young, re-elected to the NA in last April's by-election, failed to win the party's nomination and was forced to run as an independent. Chung Dong-young would like to inherit Kim Dae-jung's mantle -- and caught DP members off guard by managing to secure an invitation to speak in Kim Dae-jung's place on September 18 at the National Press Club in Washington -- but, despite his stated intention to rejoin the DP, has failed to negotiate his return to the party. -------------- LMB's Approval Ratings Up -------------- ¶7. (C) Meanwhile, President Lee Myung-bak's approval rating is at its highest levels since the 2008 beef protests. The Blue House announced on August 23 that according to a poll commissioned by the presidential office, his popularity was at 46.7 percent -- up from 31.1 percent on July 26. Independent polls have confirmed the trend, though they report lower numbers; a Real Meter poll conducted on August 25 put the President's approval at 31.4 percent -- up from 24.7 percent on July 29. This "surge" in public support could give the Blue House -- and by extension the GNP -- some momentum heading into the regular session. The DP's attempt to drum up public opposition to the media reform bills the GNP pushed through in July has failed; a Real Meter poll conducted on August 25 put the DP's approval rating at 25.9 percent compared to the GNP's at 32 percent. -------------- Bumpy Road Ahead -------------- ¶8. (C) Still, the government and the GNP will have their work cut out for them as they enter the regular session, which is fraught with inter-party wrangling even in the best of times because of the requirement to pass the budget before the end of the session in December. An October 28 by-election, in which three seats are up for grabs, will have both the GNP and DP trying to score political points in an attempt to achieve a symbolic, if not meaningful, victory. Other controversial issues will include tax reforms, changes to the irregular workers law, and proposed substantive amendments to the Constitution, which both the Blue House and National Assembly Speaker Kim Hyung-o are pushing. TOKOLA