SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 31, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 06 SEOUL 001391 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; August 31, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- All, All TVs Japan Elections Mark Historic Shift in Power; Opposition Wins by Landslide DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- According to maritime police, North Korea on Saturday freed four ROK fishermen it had held for almost a month. The fishing vessel Yeonanho and its relieved crew arrived at the ROK's Sokcho port and following a brief reunion with their families, the fishermen were taken to a military base to be questioned by investigators about their detention. (Chosun, Dong-a, Hankook, Segye, Seoul, All TVs) According to the "White Paper on Investigation into Candlelight Protests" released by the Seoul-based Supreme Prosecutors' Office, an estimated 932,000 people rallied on nearly 2,400 occasions in the ROK last year to protest their government's decision to resume imports of U.S. beef. The report said that the rallies cost 3.7 trillion won in social and economic damage. (Dong-a, Hankyoreh) A senior (ROKG) source knowledgeable about the North Korean nuclear issue said on August 30 that Stephen Bosworth, the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, will visit the ROK, Japan and China early next month along with Sung Kim, Special Envoy for the Six-Party Talks. (Hankook, Voice of People, All TVs) INTERNATIONAL NEWS -------------- According to diplomatic sources, an Australian-owned ship was seized in the United Arab Emirates carrying North Korean weapons, including rocket-propelled grenades, headed for Iran. The seizure was the first since the UN Security Council tightened sanctions against North Korea in June in response to its second nuclear test and missile launches. (All, All TVs) Japan's opposition party won historic elections in an apparent landslide Sunday, sending the conservatives to defeat after 54 years of nearly unbroken rule amid widespread economic anxiety and desire for change. This will open the way for Yukio Hatoyama who leads the Democratic Party to replace Prime Minister Taro Aso. (All, All TVs) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- -N. Korea -------------- The release of ROK fishermen, who had been towed to North Korea after crossing the border in the East Sea on July 30, received wide press coverage. According to Conservative Chosun Ilbo, North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun on Saturday indirectly called for inter-Korean talks to implement the North-South Joint Declarations. The newspaper also cited North Korean weekly Tongil Sinbo as saying that normalizing North-South relations is a national request and an urgent demand of the times, adding that a breakthrough for a new turn in North-South relations has already been found. However, Chosun Ilbo also quoted an ROK official as saying on Sunday, "It seems that North Korea has recently launched a heavy charm offensive. The first priority should be given to ascertaining North Korea's sincerity." All ROK newspapers reported that an Australian-owned ship was seized in the United Arab Emirates carrying North Korean weapons, including rocket-propelled grenades, headed for Iran. According to the media reports, the seizure was the first since the UN Security Council tightened sanctions against North Korea in June in response to its SEOUL 00001391 002 OF 006 second nuclear test and missile launches. Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "It could be said that North Korea has adopted conciliatory tactics in order to avoid difficulties caused by international pressure but, as shown in its weapons shipment to Iran, North Korea has not fundamentally changed. The way for the North to survive will open up when it gives up the delusion that Pyongyang, while not giving up its nuclear programs, can deceive the international community with conciliatory gestures." -Japan Elections -------------- All ROK media gave top front-and inside-page play to Japan's elections that mark an historic shift in power. According to media reports, Japan's opposition party won elections in an apparent landslide Sunday, sending the conservatives to defeat after 54 years of nearly unbroken rule amid widespread economic anxiety and desire for change. The media reported that this will open the way for Yukio Hatoyama who leads the Democratic Party to replace Prime Minister Taro Aso. Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "The Democratic Party favors the idea of free trade agreements with the ROK and the U.S. On North Korea, the Democratic Party of Japan rejects the North as a nuclear power in the same manner as the ROK and the U.S. The cooperation of the international community including the ROK, Japan and the U.S. is crucial in maintaining this principle after Japan's transition of power." Chosun Ilbo editorialized: "Yukio Hatoyama, who will be Japan's next prime minister, has stressed the importance of Asia-focused diplomacy, steering away from U.S.-focused diplomacy. Hatoyama, who leads the Democratic Party, said that, up until now,-Japan's diplomacy has been tailored to U.S. circumstances but from now on should be on an equal footing with the U.S. Since the cold war era, the U.S.-Japan alliance has served as an axis of Northeast Asia security alongside the ROK-U.S. alliance. There is a likelihood that the U.S.-Japan alliance will change in concert with the ROK-U.S. alliance." OPINIONS/EDITORIALS -------------- THE MEANING OF THE SIX-PARTY TALKS SHOULD BE PROPERLY UNDERSTOOD (Seoul Shinmun, August 31, 2009, Page 30) By Kim Young-ho, Professor of International Relations at Sungshin Women's University With the Six-Party Talks at a stalemate and the international community strengthening its sanctions against North Korea, North Korea has adopted a conciliatory attitude. This change of tack is revealed in its series of steps, such as the release of the two U.S. female journalists following former U.S. President Clinton's visit to the North, the release of a detained ROK employee, who worked at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, the five-point agreement with Hyundai Group, and the dispatch of a condolence delegation to the funeral of former ROK President Kim Dae-jung. Inter-Korean dialogue is also expected to resume soon. We have no reason to oppose inter-Korean reconciliation, cooperation and dialogue. However, we should not let the conciliatory gestures blindside us to the ultimate goal of a complete nuclear dismantlement in North Korea. In order to accomplish this goal, we must have a clear principle in dealing with North Korea's moves. A strategic principle in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue should be based on accurate understanding of the true nature of the Six-Party Talks. Although the Six-Party Talks involve six nations, those nations are, in fact, divided into two groups: North Korea, a nation that wants to break the status quo in Northeast Asia, and the remaining five nations that want to maintain the status quo. If we look back at the history of the last century, we can understand how important maintaining the status quo is for peace and economic prosperity in the region. Since the late 20th century after the end SEOUL 00001391 003 OF 006 of the Korean War, Northeast Asia has been enjoying an "era of peace" without serious conflicts. On the other hand, the early half of the 20th century was an "era of war." The Northeast Asian region was plunged into a string of wars, such as the Sino-Japanese War, the Russo-Japanese War, the Manchurian Incident, the Pacific War, and the Korean War. After the Korean War, as the ROK-U.S. alliance was forged, U.S. troops were stationed in the ROK, and the U.S. emerged as a power balancer in the region, thereby ushering in an era of peace. Furthermore, after the Korean War, China made clear its opposition to North Korea's war provocations, contributing to an era of peace of over 50 years in Northeast Asia. Thanks to this long-lasting peace, the Northeast Asian region is still enjoying the most dynamic economic growth in the world. However, North Korea's nuclear possession poses a direct threat to this long-lasting peace. The Six-Party nations are clearly divided between the five nations that desire to maintain peace in Northeast Asia through North Korea's complete dismantlement of nuclear programs and North Korea, which rejects opening and reform and acts in an abnormal way. Recently, there has been controversy in political circles over remarks by some ROKG officials that, with the Six-Party Talks in a stalemate, five-party talks or consultations should be considered. Whether the five-party talks will be held or not, from the perspective of peace and prosperity in the Northeast Asian region, the remarks about the importance of the "five-party" talks touched the core of the principle that the ROK will have to pursue in terms of its national strategy. It is regrettable that strategists under the Lee Myung-bak Administration failed to make this point to the people and the neighboring countries persuasively. Now, China and Russia, along with the U.S. and Japan, clearly understand that a long-lasting peace in Northeast Asia is essential to their prosperity. Strategists of the Lee Administration should make all diplomatic efforts to closely cooperate with these four nations on the five-party talks so as to maintain peace and prosperity not only on the Korean Peninsula but also in the Northeast Asian region. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUT PRESSURE ON NORTH KOREA (Dong-a Ilbo, August 31, 2009, Page 31) The United Arab Emirates has caught North Korea carrying illegal weapons to Iran on a ship of a third nation. In the seized containers were detonators, explosives, and rocket-propelled grenades. The UAE's seizure is very meaningful in that it is the first tangible result of UN Security Council Resolution 1874, which was adopted on June 12 after North Korea's second nuclear crisis. The U.S. Congressional Research Service once said that North Korea was earning 2 billion dollars per year by exporting missiles, missile parts, and design technologies to Iran. It has become virtually impossible for the North to export weapons under the supervision of the U.S. and the international community. This past June, the Kang Nam I, a North Korean vessel suspected of carrying illegal weapons, sailed allegedly to Myanmar but, after being shadowed by a U.S. vessel, returned home. Since international sanctions began in earnest after North Korea's long-range rocket launches in April and its second nuclear test in May, Pyongyang has been recently taking conciliatory steps toward Washington and Seoul. It welcomed a visit by former U.S. President Bill Clinton and freed the two U.S. female journalists on August 4 and released an ROK employee of Hyundai Asan, Yoo Seong-jin, after 136 days of detention on August 13. It also lifted tough border restrictions on August 21, and sent a condolence delegation to the state funeral of former ROK President Kim Dae-jung and permitted the delegation to meet with ROK President Lee Myung-bak. North Korea is also restraining itself from lashing out at President Lee. Recently, The Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of (North) Korea, indirectly urged the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue. SEOUL 00001391 004 OF 006 It could be said that North Korea has adopted conciliatory tactics in order to avoid difficulties caused by international pressure but, as shown in its weapons shipment to Iran, North Korea has not fundamentally changed. The way for the North to survive will open up when it gives up the delusion that Pyongyang, while not giving up its nuclear programs, can deceive the international community with conciliatory gestures. It is fortunate that North Korea released the four crew members of the ROK fishing vessel 800 Yeonan, but the communist state acted as if it showed good faith by freeing them, although it detained the innocent fishermen for a month. This is such a shameless act. HOW WILL THE POWER CHANGE IN JAPAN AFFECT KOREA? (Chosun Ilbo, August 31, 2009, Page 31; Excerpts) Japan's Democratic Party won a landslide victory in general elections on Sunday. It was a humiliating defeat for the Liberal Democratic Party, which has governed Japan for all but 11 months since 1955. There is a strong likelihood of minor and major changes in Japan's domestic and foreign policy now that the Japanese public's desire for a new beginning has been demonstrated. The Democratic Party has stressed the importance of Asia-focused diplomacy, steering away from U.S.-focused diplomacy. Hatoyama, who leads the Democratic Party, said that, up until now, Japan's diplomacy has been tailored to U.S. circumstances but from now on should be on an equal footing with the U.S. Since the cold war era, the U.S.-Japan alliance has served as an axis of Northeast Asia security alongside the ROK-U.S. alliance. There is a likelihood that the U.S.-Japan alliance will change in concert with the ROK-U.S. alliance. Hatoyama chose to embrace an Asia-focused diplomacy instead of the traditional focus on relations with Washington to keep in check the ascendance of China, which has risen in status as the world's second most powerful country after the United States. During the reign of the LDP, relations between Seoul and Tokyo never transcended the problems arising from the legacy of Japan's World War II atrocities. Now the DP has vowed to take a different approach. In order for the East Asia community and Asia-focused policies pitched by the DP to be successful, Japan must resolve the distrust its regional neighbors feel. It remains to be seen whether the DP will be able to break the cycle of error committed by previous Japanese administrations when it comes to dealing with the country's wartime atrocities. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) ELECTION REVOLUTION ENDS LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY ERA IN JAPAN (Hankyoreh Shinmun, August 31, 2009, Page 27) The people of Japan gave the Democratic Party an overwhelming victory in yesterday's election, marking the beginning of a new chapter in the country's political history. The Liberal Democratic Party, which in the 54 years since 1955 had never once failed to place as the winning party, was dealt a decisive defeat as the Democrats achieved Japan's first change in ruling parties through election. It could well be called an election revolution. Strictly speaking, however, this election is also the result of the Liberal Democrats' self-destruction. The party, which united conservative parties that had been shifting alignments following the Second World War under the shared values of anti-Communism and market liberalism, led Japan to the status of the world's second-ranked economy on the strength of its large corporations and bureaucracy. As the bubble burst in the 1990s though, divisions between the Liberal Democratic Party and the people of Japan began SEOUL 00001391 005 OF 006 to grow deeper. The lifetime employment system, once the pride of Japan, crumbled apart and the gap between rich and poor grew larger. The country has also undergone a rapid aging process, while a large number of young people have been faced with the uneasy situation of going from one temporary position to another. Fundamental reforms have been needed, but the Liberal Democrats have been powerless in the face of resistance from their support base comprised of executives from large conglomerates and bureaucrats. Of course, there was former Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro, who worked to reflect the people's demands for change, for example by carrying out postal service reforms in spite of resistance by vested interests within the party. However, his neoliberal reforms only exacerbated income inequality. When the world was struck by financial crisis soon afterwards, it revealed the weakness of the Japanese economy for all to see. In the first quarter of 2009, the nation's GDP fell at an annual rate of some 11.7 percent, and unemployment reached its highest level in history. The Liberal Democratic Party responded to this in the same way as the Lee Myung-bak Administration, by expanding public projects. It is all too natural that the people of Japan, who are demanding drastic changes, would abandon the party. Responsibility for reflecting this thirst for change now falls on the Democratic Party of Japan. In a piece entitled "Japan's New Way," Democratic Party head, Hatoyama Yukio, spoke of "fraternity" as the crux of his political philosophy. To him, fraternity is both a principle for controlling U.S.-style market fundamentalism and creating a society with a more solid social safety net, and also a philosophical foundation for creating an East Asian community. It is hoped that Hatoyama's philosophy of fraternity will become a foundation for making Japan's society a more secure and egalitarian one. If Japan intends to speak of an East Asian community, it needs to act as a defender of peace and security in the region. That it has failed to do so over the years is common knowledge. The country has stirred up insecurity in the region with its historical views, territorial conflicts and military buildup, and it has had a deleterious effect on the Six-Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear issue due to its insistence on bringing up citizen abduction issues that are not directly related to the agenda. A solution to the nuclear issue is urgently needed if the East Asian community described by Hatoyama is to be created. In that regard, it is noteworthy that he is opening up the possibility for dialogue with North Korea. The changes in the ruling parties of the U.S. and Japan are demanding a complete change in our foreign policy. The South Korean government should expand the approach of dialogue with North Korea initiated by the death of former president Kim Dae-jung, and ensure that the country is not left out by a shifting international situation. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, and it is identical to the Korean version.) "JAPAN'S HISTORIC POWER TRANSITION; THE JAPANESE DEMOCRATIC PARTY GOVERNMENT, CAN IT INCREASE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES' CONFIDENCE? (Dong-a Ilbo, August 31, 2009, Page 31) The landslide victory of the Democratic Party of Japan in yesterday's general elections has ended the 54-year reign of the Liberal Democratic Party, which was formed in 1955. The August 30 general elections, which enabled the first major transition of power in post-World War II Japan, hold great significance in Japanese political history. Though a non-Liberal Democratic coalition took power for 10 months after the 1993 general elections, the Liberal Democratic Party still held control. The Democratic Party's victory resulted from the Japanese people's desire for change. The Japanese public had long been fed up with the near total domination of the Liberal Democrats, who lost support SEOUL 00001391 006 OF 006 due to bureaucratic politics, corruption, chronic factionalism and frequent replacement of prime ministers. Another factor was that the Japanese economy, which had been revived under Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi after the "lost decade," took another turn for the worse due to the global economic crisis. Led by Yukio Hatoyama, the Democratic Party lambasted collusion between the government and the Liberal Democrats and achieved a revolutionary transition of power by promising down-to-earth policies such as childcare support and ending budget waste. Hatoyama, who will be Japan's next prime minister, has stressed the importance of Asia-focused diplomacy, especially Korea-Japan relations. He publicly announced his opposition to visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, where Class A war criminals are honored. Hatoyama also says he will follow the Murayama Danwa, an official statement made by Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama in 1995 to apologize for Japan's invasion and colonial rule of Asian countries. Hatoyama's first foreign visit in May was to Korea after his election as party leader. Bilateral relations substantially improved after President Lee Myung-bak took power early last year. Both public and private cooperation are needed to achieve a more mature partnership after the Democratic Party takes over the Japanese government. Nevertheless, it is premature to hold hasty hopes since factors that could worsen relations persist, such as the territorial dispute over the Dokdo islets. The Hatoyama-led government must make great efforts to prevent an action that could hurt Korean sentiment and deteriorate bilateral relations. The Democratic Party favors the idea of free trade agreements with the ROK and the U.S. Both Korea and Japan have groups backing such an agreement and those urging extreme caution. If Tokyo cooperates with Seoul in reducing Korea's chronic trade imbalance with Japan, it will help resume free trade talks between both sides. On North Korea, the Democratic Party of Japan rejects the North as a nuclear power in the same manner as the ROK and the U.S. The cooperation of the international community including the ROK, Japan and the U.S. is crucial in maintaining this principle after Japan's transition of power. The Democratic Party has also pledged to do everything it can with government resources to resolve the North's past abductions of Japanese nationals. On domestic policy, the party introduced measures to support childcare, make public high school education free, accelerate decentralization, prohibit political appointments of public officials, and pursue eco-friendly economic development. While some expressed hope for the introduction of a new economic growth model, others have criticized the party's pledges as pork barrel measures that fail to consider economic resources. It also remains to see how the Japanese economy, which experienced rapid growth after the Second World War with the Liberal Democratic Party model, will fare under the Democratic Party. Korea and Japan must still rectify remnants of their unfortunate history, but are indispensable to each other given their geographical proximity and shared respect for a free democracy and market economy. Japan's historic transition of power should serve as an opportunity to upgrade bilateral relations. (This is a translation provided by the newspaper. Some minor changes have been made to make it identical to the Korean version.) TOKOLA