SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; July 14, 2009

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SEOUL 001112 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; July 14, 2009 TOP HEADLINES -------------- Chosun Ilbo Urban Poverty Ratio Increases Sharply in ROK JoongAng Ilbo, Hankook Ilbo, Segye Ilbo, Seoul Shinmun, All TVs ROK-EU Free Trade Agreement Announced; the Accord Expected to Take Effect in First Half of Next Year Dong-a Ilbo President Lee: "ROK and India will Sign Free Trade Agreement This August and Ratification of KORUS FTA will Follow, which Means that ROK will have Free Trade Deals with More than 50 Percent of the World's Population" Hankyoreh Shinmun Prosecutor-General Nominee Fakes Residential Record to Send His Son to a High School in Southern Seoul, an Area Noted for Quality Education; Also Violates Gift Tax Law DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS -------------- According to a senior ROKG official, the Chief Chinese Delegate to the Six-Party Talks, Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, in a July 13 meeting in Seoul with his ROK counterpart, Wi Sung-lac, expressed Beijing's cautious stance toward holding the ROK-proposed five-party consultations between the five members - excluding North Korea - of the Six-Party Talks. (JoongAng, Dong-a, Hankook, Hankyoreh, Segye, Seoul, VoiceofPeople) "North Korea's Double-faced Approach toward Kaesong Complex:" According to the Unification Ministry, North Korea has increased the number of its workers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex by 1,354 this year, while threatening to close the joint inter-Korean complex. (Chosun, Dong-a, Seoul) According to a recent survey of 660 Seoul National University (SNU) students conducted by an SNU professor, the political inclination of SNU students is rapidly turning conservative. 42 percent of those surveyed picked the U.S. as the country to which they feel closest, and more students supported the ruling Grand National Party (20 percent) than the major opposition Democratic Party (10 percent). (Chosun) MEDIA ANALYSIS -------------- ¶N. Korea Most ROK media gave attention to yesterday's meeting in Seoul between chief ROK and Chinese delegates to the Six-Party Talks, in which Wu Dawei, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, expressed Beijing's cautious stance toward holding the ROK-proposed five-party consultations between the five members - excluding North Korea - of the Six-Party Talks. Wu was quoted as telling reporters, when asked if China supports the five-party talks, "we will maintain the Six-Party format." An ROKG official was also quoted: "China was cautious, and we do not expect any concrete progress on the idea in the near future. We should keep working on it." Moderate Hankook Ilbo quoted President Lee Myung-bak as saying during a July 13 press meeting in Stockholm: "Russian President Dmitry Medvedev told me during our recent summit in Rome that Russia will not treat North Korea as well as it did in the past, unless the SEOUL 00001112 002 OF 003 North abandons its nuclear ambitions." Moderate Seoul Shinmun carried a quote from Unification Ministry Spokesman Chun Hae-song, who said during a July 13 regular briefing: "There have been media reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has life-threatening pancreatic cancer, but we have no knowledge of the reports." Japanese PM Calls Elections The ROK media gave front-and inside-page play to Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso's July 13 decision to dissolve the Lower House of parliament next week and to call an election on August 30 following his party's crushing defeat in the July 12 Tokyo assembly election. Most media observed that chances are high that the opposition Democratic Party of Japan will take power after 50 years of almost exclusive rule by Prime Minister Taro Aso's Liberal Democratic Party. FEATURES -------------- SNU Students Veer to the Right (Chosun Ilbo, July 14, 2009, Page 2) By Reporter Hong Young-rim Seoul National University's traditionally radical students are becoming more politically conservative. According to a survey of 660 SNU students conducted by Prof. Hong Doo-seung, 42 percent of the respondents said they felt closest to the U.S. That was against 15 percent who felt closest to North Korea and 13 percent who said Japan. But 37 percent of the respondents said they felt most threatened by North Korea, followed by China (26 percent) and the U.S. (17 percent). Asked if they supported the strengthening of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, 43 percent said yes, far outdistancing the 17 percent who said no. Some 48 percent supported the continued presence of U.S. Forces Korea, more than double the 22 percent who opposed it. Students' views of the U.S. moved in a more positive direction. In a previous survey by Hong in 2002 of students at six universities in Seoul, including SNU, a mere 7 percent of the respondents had positive feelings toward the U.S. North Korea was generally viewed negatively. Some 78 percent said they felt threatened by the North's nuclear weapons, while 60 percent expressed concern about the North taking external military action. On economic issues, 50 percent of the respondents supported the principle of free competition, while 26 percent opposed it and 23 percent were neutral. Some 34 percent approved of free trade agreements with various nations, more than the 28 percent who opposed it. But 38 percent of the respondents were neutral. Twenty percent of SNU students even supported the conservative Grand National Party, followed by the New Progressive Party (19 percent), the Democratic Party (10 percent),and the Democratic Labor Party (9 percent). 42 percent of the respondents still identified themselves as politically progressive, followed by moderates (30 percent) and conservatives (28 percent). But that stands against a similar survey in 2002 in which 63 percent said they were progressives, 26 percent moderates, and 11 percent conservatives. "The entire university community is rapidly becoming de-politicized," said Hong, a professor of sociology. "As a result of their disappointment with the progressive establishment during the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun Administrations, many students are SEOUL 00001112 003 OF 003 shifting their focus to what has direct influence on their lives, such as employment and career." (This is a translation provided by the newspaper, which has been edited to make it identical to the Korean version.) (ROK-EU FTA) to Be a Catalyst to Accelerate Ratification of KORUS FTA (Dong-a Ilbo, July 14, page 3) By Reporter Cha ji-wan Since the ROK-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks have concluded, the ROK-EU FTA will likely act as a catalyst to accelerate the ratification of the KORUS FTA, which has not been ratified by lawmakers in both countries since being signed two years ago. This is because a "most favored nation" clause is provided in the KORUS FTA. The clause stipulates that if the ROK reaches a trade pact with another country after the KORUS FTA takes effect, the most favorable benefits under the pact should also be provided to the U.S. However, in order for the U.S. to be entitled to such benefits, the KORUS FTA has to go into effect before the official signing of the ROK-EU FTA. Trade experts say that even though it will not be clear until the final agreement is revealed, there will be a considerable number of clauses that entitle the U.S. to most favored nation treatment since the ROK-EU FTA calls on bilateral markets to be more open than the KORUS FTA. Therefore, some economic organizations say that the ROK-EU FTA should serve as a benchmark for ratification of the KORUS-FTA. Cheong In-kyo, an Economics Professor at Inha University said that most favored nation treatment was introduced to maximize economic and synergy effects of the KORUS FTA. He added that it is not appropriate to take this treatment negatively because areas which may work against the ROK could be eliminated during negotiations. Intense competition between EU and U.S. companies in the ROK market is another factor that puts pressure on the U.S. government and Congress. If the ROK-EU FTA takes effect earlier (than the KORUS FTA,) the U.S. may lose a chance to make inroads into the ROK market preemptively, even though the U.S. signed the trade deal with the ROK first. In particular, European cars outperform U.S. automobiles in the ROK market. Therefore if the ROK-EU FTA goes into effect earlier, the U.S. will have less leverage. According to the Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, last year European cars represented a 53% share of the ROK's imported car market, while the U.S. accounted for an 11.7% share. That is why the U.S. Government, which had negative attitudes regarding the KORUS FTA at first, is (now) changing its tune. During the June 16 summit with President Lee Myung-bak, President Obama agreed to hold working-level talks to advance the progress of the KORUS FTA. However, the U.S. Congress has stuck to the position that pending domestic economic issues, including the health care reform bill, should be addressed first. Therefore, this is expected to be a deciding factor for the early ratification of the KORUS FTA. The KORUS FTA was officially signed on June 30, 2007 but has not taken effect because of delayed ratification by lawmakers in both countries. STEPHENS