BOSNIAKS ATTEMPT TO BLOCK THE WORK OF THE RS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000895

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

EUR/SCE (FOOKS); NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIAKS ATTEMPT TO BLOCK THE WORK OF THE RS
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. In response to a recent decision by the
Republika Srpska (RS) Constitutional Court, Bosniak leaders
in the RS announced on July 14 that the Bosniak Caucus in the
RS Council of Peoples (RS CoP) will attempt to block all laws
passed by the RS National Assembly (RSNA) by boycotting
sessions of the Council of Peoples, one of the two Houses of
the RSNA. Serbs have blasted this move, calling it illegal.
The first piece of legislation that might be affected will be
the rebalance of the RS's 2009 budget, which is a condition
for receiving International Monetary Fund (IMF) funds. It is
not clear yet whether the RSNA will be paralyzed by this
boycott or whether Serb parties will be able to ignore the
boycott and implement legislation without Bosniak
participation in the Council of Peoples. Either way, this
controversy is already exacerbating political tensions in the
RS and Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) as a whole. END SUMMARY.


BOSNIAKS THREATEN TO BLOCK RSNA
--------------


2. (SBU) Adil Osmanovic (an ethnic Bosniak),one of the two
Republika Srpska (RS) Vice Presidents and a Vice President in
Sulejman Tihic's Party of Democratic Action (SDA),announced
on July 14 that the Bosniak Caucus in the RS Council of
Peoples (RS CoP) will "block" all laws passed by the RS
National Assembly (RSNA) by boycotting CoP sessions. It is
possible that this move could prevent any law passed by the
RSNA from going into effect, because the CoP is mandated to
review all laws passed by the RSNA to determine whether the
laws impinge on a "Vital National Interest" of one of the
constituent peoples. Without Bosniak participation, the CoP
might lack a quorum to fulfill this function. According to
Osmanovic, this blockade will continue until the RS
Constitutional Court (RS CC) reverses its recent ruling
upholding the RSNA's decision to remove the prefix "Bosanski"
from the names of two towns in the RS. Additionally,
according to Osmanovic, the Bosniaks will demand that the
Constitutional Court change the voting procedures in its book
of rules, "to prevent further outvoting of Bosniaks."
Osmanovic said that under the current procedures, the RS CC
"commits political violence against Bosniaks."

SERBS CALL FOR ABOLISHMENT OF CoP
--------------


3. (SBU) Serbs were quick to condemn the move. RS Prime
Minister Milorad Dodik said that "there is one way to resolve
this matter: Dayton did not foresee an RS CoP, so we will see
if the CoP continues to exist." Serb Democratic Party (SDS)
President Mladen Bosic openly called for the abolishment of
the RS CoP, adding that the RS CoP was "imposed by
internationals." Mladen Ivanic, President of the Party of
Democratic Progress (PDP),announced that the RSNA "should
ignore the blockade and continue to enact laws despite it."
He asked, "if they (Bosniaks) do not respect the
Constitution, why should we respect them?" RS President
Rajko Kuzmanovic, a close ally of Dodik, said that the
Bosniaks' decision "has no basis in the RS Constitution or in
the RS CoP book of rules," and he called on Bosniaks to
"reassess their position." Additionally, Serbs scoffed at
Bosniak claims that they are being outvoted in the RS CC,
claiming that the same thing happens to Serbs regularly in
the state-level Constitutional Court. Moreover, the Serb
Caucus, as well as the Caucus of the "Others" in the RS CoP,
expressed concern that the Bosniaks' initiative could
paralyze RS institutions and jeopardize the recently-signed
standby arrangement with the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) (Ref B).


HOW THE BLOCKADE WOULD WORK, PROCEDURALLY
--------------


4. (SBU) Perica Rajcevic, RSNA Speaker Igor Radojicic's Chief
of Staff and an MP in the RSNA, told us that after the RSNA
passes a law, RSNA officials take several days to prepare the
final document for forwarding to the RS CoP. Rajcevic said
that the RSNA would probably forward the rebalance of the RS
budget to the RS CoP around July 22. He explained that from
the time the RS CoP stamps the documents as received, it has
seven days in which to review them and to raise a "vital
national interest (VNI)" complaint. He said that the
date-stamp is an administrative matter, and the boycott will
not affect it.


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5. (SBU) Zeljko Mirjanic, Caucus Head of Dodik's Alliance of
Independent Social Democrats (SNSD),told us on July 15 that
if the RS CoP does not raise VNI within seven days, then the
measure will go to the RS President and be published in the
RS Official Gazette, thereby going into effect. He said that
if the Bosniaks do not go to work, and no one else raises
VNI, then the measures should go into effect. Politically,
however, Mirjanic admitted that it is not so simple. He said
that if the RSNA ignores the boycott, then there could be
problems later on. Mirjanic said that he expects the Central
Election Commission (CEC) or the High Representative (HR) to
"take away the mandates of MPs who refuse to do their jobs."

WILL THE BLOCKADE IN FACT CRIPPLE THE RSNA?
--------------


6. (SBU) Constitutional law scholar and Deputy Speaker of
the RS CoP Miroslav Mikes reportedly stated that if the
Bosniak Caucus proceeds with this initiative, it would
essentially remove itself from the legislative process, and
the RSNA could continue to function without it. However,
Radojicic has said that the Bosniaks can prevent legislation
from going into force. For example, he said that the
rebalance of the RS budget, which the RSNA adopted on July
15, cannot go into effect "if the RS CoP does not carry out
its role in the process." On the other hand, he continues to
insist that the RS will "find a legal way to resolve this
issue," adding that, "if they do not want to do their job,
then we will find a way to de-block this." Rajcevic told us
on July 17 that if the Bosniak Caucus boycotts the work of
the RS CoP, then Radojicic plans to interpret their silence
as consent. (Note: The first law that the RSNA passed since
the Bosniaks announced their blockade was the rebalance of
the RS 2009 budget, to bring it into compliance with the IMF
conditions for release of additional standby fund loan funds.
The impasse should come to a head sometime around July 29,
when the seven-day deadline for the RS CoP to review that law
expires. This will be the test case for the Bosniak blockade
and Radojicic's proposed response. End Note.)


COMMENT
--------------


7. (SBU) It is not clear how the legal and political issues
raised by this action of the Bosniak caucus will be resolved.
Serbs appear inclined to ignore the CoP boycott and wait
to see if this leads to legal challenges of the legislation
passed by the RSNA. Serbs do seem to realize, however, that
ignoring the boycott could impart at least the appearance of
impropriety. Serbs may be able to argue that Bosniaks, in
using the tactics of a boycott, are undermining their own
complaints that Serbs blockade the work of BiH State-level
institutions. By resorting to boycott and blockade to try to
reverse precedents for RS Constitutional Court practice that
have gone unchallenged for years, the Bosniaks appear to be
playing with a weak political hand. The outcome regarding
the IMF law will help determine whether this tactic can be an
effective political challenge to the RS Constitutional Court
decision.
ENGLISH