BOSNIA - CODEL CARDIN STRESSES NEED FOR DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 000797 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS); NSC FOR HELGERSON; OSD FOR BEIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - CODEL CARDIN STRESSES NEED FOR DIALOGUE AMID NATIONALIST MESSAGES Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In June 27-28 meetings with Bosnia's Presidency and the leaders of its most prominent political parties, a Congressional delegation led by Senator Benjamin Cardin (D-MD) stressed the USG's continued concern for Bosnia's future and pledged our support for helping Bosnia become a sustainable state integrated into Euro-Atlantic institutions. Predictably, Bosniak leaders stressed the need for the USG and the Office of the High Representative (OHR) to remain engaged in Bosnia, but Serbs insisted that Bosnia already possessed the capacity to fulfill the requirements for NATO and the EU on its own. All leaders agreed that near-term NATO membership would be essential for Bosnia's stability, but they focused more heavily on NATO's benefit to Bosnia than Bosnia's ability to contribute to NATO. The meeting became contentious amid questions on refugee returns, with Republika Srpska (RS) PM Milorad Dodik insisting that non-Serb refugees returned uninhibited to the RS, while Party of Democratic Action (SDA) leader Sulejman Tihic and Party for BiH (SBiH) leader Haris Silajdzic begged to differ. These discussions set the stage for a dialogue on constitutional reform, in which all parties acknowledged the need for changes but Serbs flatly refused to participate in any negotiations on entity voting. Setting aside their usual, moderate discourse, Tihic alluded to the need to abolish entity voting, and Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)-BiH leader Covic declared unequivocally that the Croats need a third entity. Bosniak tri-presidency member Silajdzic opined that the USG should completely disengage from Bosnia if it plans to "put its seal of approval on anything resembling the legitimization of ethnic cleansing." CODEL Cardin also met with High Representative Valentin Inzko, who stressed the need for the international community to remain engaged in Bosnia. END SUMMARY. CODEL Stresses Support for Bosnia -------------- ¶2. (C) Members of the Congressional delegation (CODEL) led by Senator Benjamin Cardin (D-MD) visited Bosnia on June 27-28. They emphasized to Bosnia's political leaders that the USG has a stake in Bosnia's future and wants to help its leaders secure a functional state government capable of taking its place in NATO and the EU, while respecting the existence of the entities. Rep. Chris Smith (D-NH) noted that many members of the delegation came to Bosnia during the war and witnessed the genocide that took place. He added that Dayton served as a tourniquet for the bloodshed but that it is now time to move beyond Dayton to a structure with fewer blockages in state institutions. Senator Richard Durbin (D-IL) noted that President Obama and Vice President Biden are firmly committed to helping Bosnia secure a stable future and encouraged Bosnian leaders to work together away from the media to attempt to resolve Bosnia's problems. Senator Cardin declared that Bosnia must stop focusing so heavily on its entities and find a sense of national pride, which no one -- including the USG -- can impose. He stressed that "we are not here to debate the past but to work on the future" and that Bosnian leaders need to start listening to each other and finding common ground. Key Politicians Engage with CODEL -------------- ¶3. (C) The delegation met first on June 27 with leaders of Bosnia's most influential political parties: Sulejman Tihic, Party of Democratic Action (SDA); Haris Silajdzic, Party for BiH (SBiH) and Bosniak tri-presidency member; Zlatko Lagumdzija, Social Democratic Party (SDP); Dragan Covic, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH); Bozo Ljubic (HDZ-1990); Milorad Dodik, Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and RS PM; Igor Crnadak, Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) deputy chairman; and Igor Radojicic, Speaker of the RS National Assembly (RSNA). The following day, the delegation met with the Presidency, but only Bosniak member Silajdzic was personally present. Serb member Nebojsa Radmanovic was represented by his Chief of Cabinet, Miroslav Vujicic, and Croat member Zeljko Komsic by his advisor, Davor Vuletic. (Note: Radmanovic was absent attending Vidovdan festivities in the RS, and Vuletic told us Komsic was away on "semi-private business pertaining to Bosnia's future." End Note.) Bosniaks Ask Us to Stay, Serbs Ask Us to Leave -------------- - ¶4. (C) The Bosniaks spent a significant portion of the meetings decrying Bosnia's lack of progress on key reforms and stressing the need for continued USG engagement. Tihic stressed that dialogue among political leaders helped resolve some of Bosnia's difficulties but that mutual trust and confidence among those leaders are lacking, and only USG support could help Bosnia overcome those obstacles. Silajdzic chimed in that the USG is a "friend who rescued us from dire times." Lagumdzija, true to form as opposition leader, declared that USG support is essential, in part because the feckless Bosnian government has not formed a common platform. He added that the government has six months to change its behavior; otherwise the citizens will seek changes in the 2010 general elections. Predictably, the Serbs' main message was "thank you for your help thus far, but we can take it from here." All Serb representatives said that Bosnia has progressed significantly since Dayton -- largely, they claimed, because of RS endorsement of key reforms -- and now has the capacity to enter NATO and the EU without extensive support from the USG. Similar Divisions on OHR's Future -------------- ¶5. (C) In general, our interlocutors offered similar views on the future of OHR as the need for the USG. Silajdzic and Lagumdzija stressed that the Dayton structure does not function without OHR, and Ljubic added that only OHR can give the state the capacity it needs to bring Bosnia into NATO and the EU, as Dayton did not endow Bosnia with a functional state. By contrast, RSNA Speaker Igor Radojicic indicated that Bosnian politicians use OHR as a crutch, hiding behind the High Representative's executive authority instead of engaging each other in dialogue. Dodik declared that OHR is unnecessary and counterproductive, as it is acting outside its legal boundaries. He stressed that Annex 10 of the Dayton Peace Accords established OHR and that OHR therefore is only responsible for interpreting that annex, not the entire Constitution. (Note: Dodik also reiterated his past claim that there is no legal basis for the State Court and the State Prosecutor's Office. End Note.) NATO Membership Essential -------------- ¶6. (C) Even as they diverged on the need for international engagement, every politician at the table stressed that near-term NATO membership would be essential for Bosnia's future. Crnadak and Radojicic stressed the political risks RS politicians take in pursuing NATO membership but noted that NATO would be crucial for all three ethnic groups. Silajdzic and Lagumdzija suggested that NATO could "help scale down fear" in Bosnia so that political leaders could engage in reforms. Silajdzic stressed in the Presidency meeting that "the path to NATO is shorter" and would provide a more near-term source of stability for Bosnia than would the EU. Senator Durbin replied that while Bosnian leaders seem to seek NATO membership to help prevent conflict within the country, most NATO aspirants seek first to demonstrate that they are stable countries capable of contributing to NATO. Silajdzic replied that there are no real threats to Bosnia's security but that Bosnia is on a "preventative quest for stability" and needs NATO's guidance in that regard. He stressed the symbolic, psychological effect that NATO membership would have on citizens' sense of security and the impact it would have on trust and confidence among political leaders. Refugee Returns a Point of Contention -------------- ¶7. (C) The political leaders' meeting, already contentious, became acrimonious amid questions on refugee returns. In response to Senator Voinovich's inquiry on the status of refugee returns to the RS, Dodik asserted, without basis, that "OSCE has determined that the refugee returns process is over." He added that there are no obstacles to refugee returns in the RS and that Bosniaks exaggerate the problem. He acknowledged that the economic integration of refugees is an issue but that this is true throughout Bosnia. Tihic retorted that among Bosniaks who tried to return to the RS, hundreds were wounded and many others returned to their property only to find it destroyed. Silajdzic added that the Constitutional Court has determined that the RS is obstructing returns and that only eight percent of non-Serbs have returned to the RS. Constitutional Reform -------------- ¶8. (C) In both meetings, the Congressional delegation -- after listening to their interlocutors enumerate the issues of contention in Bosnia's political climate -- raised the prospect of constitutional reform to solve some of Bosnia's difficulties. Several members of the delegation noted in particular that entity voting is a significant blocking mechanism in Parliament. Dodik declared unequivocally that he would not engage in any constitutional reform negotiations that included a proposal to eliminate entity voting. Crnadak added that entity voting serves as a mechanism to reduce fears within Bosnia and echoed Dodik's assertion that unless entity voting is protected, his party would not engage in reform talks. Radojicic added that the RS is represented by one-third of total votes in Bosnia, so without entity voting, the Bosniaks and Croats could easily outvote the Serbs. Dodik and Crnadak declared that they supported eliminating the ethnic exclusivity requirement for the Presidency and augmenting the size of the Parliament. Dodik noted that Bosnia can accomplish CR quickly if no "radical changes" are proposed and the international community does not get involved. Tihic stressed that entity voting is unfair because one vote from the RS equals two from the Federation, which gives the RS the equivalent of 50 percent of Bosnian territory. He said that the task now is to "convince the RS to give up its surplus." Covic stated explicitly that the best solution would be a state with "three levels and more than two entities," adding that the current, two-entity structure is unstable and that a civic model would threaten to "turn Bosnia into a Muslim country, as Sarajevo is a Muslim city" where Croats face discrimination. Silajdzic Amplifies His Message -------------- ¶9. (C) In both meetings, Silajdzic -- who, according to the media, sent a letter to the office of each member of the delegation before their visit outlining his views on Bosnia's political problems -- stated that "if you cannot help transfer certain American values to Bosnia, then please leave us alone." He said that he considers the USG a friend and does not want it to "put its stamp of approval on anything resembling the legalization or legitimization of ethnic cleansing." He added that Bosnia needs the USG's moral compass to show the importance of the ethnicities living together in harmony. He noted that "as the Holocaust demonstrates, the victim always ends up guilty," and "when that red line is crossed, we do not want the USG's seal of approval on it." He said that such a move would be detrimental not only to Bosnia but for other areas in the world in which the USG is engaged. Senator Durbin replied that reconciliation is a long process and that while it is important to acknowledge wrongdoing, mercy from the victims will be key to Bosnia's survival as a state. Silajdzic replied only that "when you know you are a victim, it is frustrating when others try to deny it." Students Call for Change, Activism -------------- ¶10. (SBU) In stark contrast to the rancor among political leaders, 15 students from diverse ethnic groups and areas of study told then-CODEL Durbin (Senator Cardin having departed for Corfu) of their desire for a peaceful, multiethnic state, particularly one without the constant need to officially identify yourself by ethnicity for jobs, education, and in other day-to-day activities. Students called for often-complacent Bosnian youth to take a greater political role, a theme echoed by Sen. Voinovich in discussing support for the Milosevic-ending activities of Otpor in Serbia. Students voiced concern about Bosnia's lack of progress on visa liberalization and EU integration path, and recognized the economic and employment opportunities being missed due to the political stalemate. CODEL members expressed satisfaction with the energy and thoughtful opinions of the students, and echoed their belief in a later press event that youth activism would be a catalyst for positive change in Bosnia. Inzko: IC Must Stay Engaged -------------- ¶11. (C) In his meeting with the Congressional delegation, HighRep Valentin Inzko painted a sobering view of Bosnia's current political climate. He stressed the need for the international community to remain engaged in Bosnia given the lack of progress on many reforms, such as state and defense property, two of the five objectives Bosnia must fulfill before his office can transition to the EUSR. He said RS obstructionism is impeding progress, and as an illustration of this point, cited the recent RSNA conclusions regarding the transfer of 68 competencies from the state to the entities. HighRep Inzko also cited the RS call for him to annul some of OHR's previous decisions, including those involving the removal of individuals from office. He made it clear that Bosniaks also contribute to this divisiveness by citing Haris Silajdzic's divisive rhetoric and maximalist positions. ¶12. (C) HighRep Inzko maintained that Bosnia must carry out constitutional reform to enable those who identify as "others," including Jews and other minority groups and individuals of mixed marriages, to run for high office. He said he was certain that Jacob Finci, Bosnia's Ambassador to Switzerland and a Jewish community leader, would win his case against Bosnia on this issue before the European Court for Human Rights and that as a result, Bosnia would be forced to change its constitution. Inzko also pointed out that many appointments for civil service positions, including Director for European Integration, have been held up due to ethnic divisions, and that political leaders are continuing to exclude young people from politics. He said it was imperative that the international community work with Bosnian interlocutors to improve "ethnic security," so that each ethnic group would feel comfortable living in Bosnia. ¶13. (C) Several members of the delegation shared concerns over Bosnia's future and the closing of OHR. Representative Slaughter questioned how such a country, rife with deep political problems, could enter the EU and NATO, saying she was "terrified" to have OHR close. She said it was clear from the meeting with the political party leaders that they were intent on pursuing hardline agendas that protect their own ethnic group. Representative Smith asked Inzko what the phase-out of OHR meant and what the RS' end goal is, arguing that it appears the RS is moving towards independence. HighRep Inzko replied that some observers believe Dodik may seek to follow the Kosovo model ("gradual independence") model, or the Montenegro ("annoy and then seek independence") model. He shared the view that Dodik does not want the RS to be become part of Serbia (which has accepted Bosnia's territorial integrity) since Dodik's political role would diminish. Senator Voinovich suggested that the U.S. and the EU should join forces to make Bosnia a priority. He said Bosniaks are "frightened to death" that the international community may decrease its role in Bosnia. He said that the RS has become more emboldened in recent months, and the Europeans (naively) believe that Bosnia will get back on the European path "by osmosis". HighRep Inzko agreed, saying that Vice President Biden's visit with Javier Solana to Bosnia, along with the interest shown by Secretary Clinton, Deputy Secretary Steinberg, and Richard Holbrooke, suggest that the Obama administration will increase U.S. engagement in Bosnia. Press Highlight CODEL Messages -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Local media prominently covered statements made at the CODEL's final press conference, and media commentary and analysis continue. The press in particular highlighted: Sen. Durbin's call for responsible political action moving Bosnia toward NATO membership; Sen. Cardin and others stressing the necessity of constitutional reform to promote stability in BiH; and Rep. Smith's questioning of entity voting. RS media reaction to Smith's comments was particularly negative, including reactions by Dodik and SNSD's Dusanka Majkic saying the RS would not enter into any negotiation which questioned entity voting. Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) The message of USG concern about Bosnia's future and willingness to engage is beginning to resonate with Bosnian leaders. All CODEL interlocutors spoke clearly about the role they believe the USG should play and the outcomes they hope will be achieved. Our challenges will be to take advantage of the increased leverage high-level delegations are providing us, while at the same time ensuring that Bosnia's leaders do not continue to hide behind us at the expense of internal dialogue. More ominously, the nationalist stances struck by Tihic and Covic -- on whom we rely to be the voices of moderation -- suggest we will need to redouble our efforts to keep them from succumbing to ethnic-based politics and thereby setting Bosnia further back. Dodik's digging in his heels publicly on entity voting and RS prerogatives steadily narrows the room for possible discussion of constitutional reform. ENGLISH