BOSNIA TO FORMALLY ASK FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP ACTION

UNCLAS SARAJEVO 000079 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA TO FORMALLY ASK FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP ACTION PLAN REF: 08 SARAJEVO 1656 ¶1. (SBU) Director of the MFA's Peace and Security division, Ambassador Fuad Sabate, called us in January 14 to report that the MFA has submitted for approval by Bosnia's Tri-Presidency a letter to NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer formally asking that Bosnia be given a Membership Action Plan at the Strasbourg summit in April. Mr. Sabate told us that the MFA intends to submit the letter during a Ministerial visit to NATO, and follow it up with Ministerial or Ambassador level visits to allies to lobby for Bosnia's case. In particular, Bosnia is urging allies to de-link their prospects of MAP from those of Georgia and Ukraine. On other occasions officials under Sabate told us that Bosnia has reached out to Montenegro, to see if they can work together and create an informal linkage between the two states in the minds of allies. Bosnia will focus on allies in Eastern Europe who are the strongest supporters of Georgia and Ukraine, who Bosnia fears will try to leverage other countries' MAP aspirations to obtain MAP for those two countries. Sabate will also visit countries -- he mentioned Germany in particular--where he believes there is specific opposition to extending MAP to Bosnia. ¶2. (SBU) Bosnia's defense leaders have being talking publicly about getting MAP in 2009 since they got Intensified Dialogue in 2008, reflecting a misunderstanding at some levels in Bosnia that progress towards NATO will require real reforms, not just an exercise in paperwork and diplomatic notes. Bosnia achieved PfP and Intensified Dialogue on the heals of important defense reforms that consolidated the two entity militaries into a single state institution. Since getting Intensified Dialogue, the still incomplete defense reform agenda has stalled and the deteriorating political situation has threatened progress on the goals set forth in Bosnia's IPAP and ID documents (reftel). Reforms that require true political compromise or significant strengthening of state institutions are unlikely in today's political environment. Tacitly recognizing this fact, one of the MFA's talking points is that allies should not make MAP "conditional" on specific reforms in Bosnia. ¶3. (SBU) We expressed our support for Bosnia's enthusiasm for Euro-Atlantic integration. We emphasized that the path to NATO is merit-based, and Bosnia's performance on its reform agenda will be the key factor determining its success getting MAP. We also warned Sabate to manage expectations. The NATO coordination group is just now developing a NATO communications strategy. We believe that a core part of that strategy must recognize that true reforms are necessary for NATO accession, and that Bosnia will not automatically progress down the NATO path just because there is another summit. We advised them to develop their communications strategy such that if Bosnia does not achieve its goal of MAP in the near term, this is not seen as a failure that would undermine or divide Bosnia's rather strong public support for NATO membership. ENGLISH