BOSNIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE JUNE 29-30 PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 000741 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR (JONES) AND EUR/SCE (FOOKS) E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2019 TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE JUNE 29-30 PEACE IMPLEMENTATION COUNCIL (PIC) Classified By: Ambassador Charles English for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Peace Implementation Council (PIC) will meet in Sarajevo on June 29-30. This meeting, the first PIC Political Directors meeting to be chaired by the current HighRep Valentin Inzko, will take place in the shadow of a serious confrontation between Inzko and Republika Srpska Prime Minister (RS PM) Dodik over Republika Srpska National Assembly (RSNA) Conclusions that the Office of the High Representative (OHR) determined were anti-Dayton. This confrontation is symptomatic of the continuing deterioration of the political atmosphere in Bosnia. Although politicians from the three constituent peoples have managed over the past month to agree on some of the legislation related to EU visa liberalization requirements, there has been virtually no progress on other reform issues such as meeting the "five objectives and two conditions" required for closing of the Office of the High Representative (OHR) and its transition to an EU Special Representative (EUSR). Despite the lack of progress on unfulfilled objectives (resolution of Defense Property and State Property issues) the Russians and some European states may propose communique language designed to require a closure decision by the end of this year. This language should be resisted. Not only has progress on the property issues been minimal, but the confrontation on the RSNA issue illustrates that, under current circumstances, Bosnia's ability to satisfy the second condition for closure (positive assessment of the political situation by PIC countries) remains questionable. Our chief objectives in the PIC are to show support for firm action by the High Representative and give a new impulse to reform by demonstrating to Bosnian politicians that we and our European PIC partners will insist on complete fulfillment of "five plus two" criteria and that we are united in our desire to see constitutional reform aimed at making the Bosnian government more functional and capable of meeting EU and NATO obligations. END SUMMARY. Not Prepared for OHR Closure -------------- ¶2. (C) Inzko told the Steering Board Ambassadors (SBA) on June 19 that he would not recommend OHR closure at next week's PIC. He stressed that "condition two" had not been fulfilled and that state and defense property remained unresolved, and he noted that he hoped the PIC would send a clear messages to Bosnia's leaders that we remain "benchmark-driven." No SBA member disputed Inzko's assertion. Stagnant on Defense Property -------------- ¶3. (C) Bosnia has made little progress on immovable or movable defense property since the March PIC. Defense Minister Cikotic has drafted an Intergovernmental Agreement to provide for the registration of prospective (that which the MoD deems necessary for its use) immovable defense property at the state level, but he will not forward it to the Council of Ministers for approval until he returns from travel at the end of July. On movable property, the MoD submitted a plan to the Presidency that would require tendering for sale all surplus weapons and ammunition before any could be destroyed. This plan would delay the disposal of much of the excess -- a lot of which is poorly secured -- for years. The Presidency has instructed the MoD to identify items for sale, donation and destruction, but the MOD has not yet formed a commission to undertake this task, and no deadline was set by the Presidency for completion of disposal. Limited Progress on State Property -------------- ¶4. (C) Hamstrung for months by PM Nikola Spiric's dawdling, the state property inventory process has begun to move, and Dodik--openly motivated by his drive for OHR closure--has publicly endorsed an expeditious resolution of the entire state property issue. However, all sides, particularly the Serbs, are still quibbling over the definition of state property, which--coupled with resource and expertise limitations within the inventory working group--is holding up the inventory process. Meanwhile, the Europeans are trying to cut corners by pushing for an intergovernmental agreement and a state property law before the inventory is complete, which--because the former two hinge on the latter--would complicate matters when we tried to implement the intergovernmental agreement and law. With the right engagement, we can secure a properly-conducted inventory before the October PIC, but the Bosnians have shown no political will to produce anything tangible before the end of June. The "Pull" of the EU -------------- ¶5. (C) Although Bosnia's progress on the two main outstanding "five plus two" elements has been modest, our European colleagues--who are nonetheless anxious for OHR closure as early as possible--may cite the progress the Bosnian Parliament made over the past month in passing legislation required for visa liberalization as evidence that the climate may be more ripe for transition at the next PIC. Laws such as the legislation on border control had been held up for months because parliamentarians from the RS did not want to support the (very minimal) strengthening of state-level institutions included in such legislation. RS parliamentarians may make the minimal compromises necessary to pass the additional legislation Bosnia will need to qualify for visa liberalization, although the recent standoff between the RS and the international community--resulting in HighRep Inzko's decision to use the Bonn Powers to annul a set of anti-Dayton conclusions--may impede any RS inclination to cooperate. Creating an Opening for Constitutional Reform -------------- ¶6. (C) Although there are no plans in the works to attach constitutional reform to the PIC's requirements for OHR closure, Inzko told the SBA that he does plan to raise the prospect of constitutional reform at the PIC. This may provide us an opportunity to suggest to our colleagues a unified approach to the reform process. We will want to encourage the Europeans to consider areas of leverage with the Serbs, which will be an even greater challenge given the recent standoff with the RS National Assembly over the conclusions. The Europeans will need to understand that we may need to use EU membership requirements to leverage agreement among political leaders on specific aspects of the reforms. We will want to stress above all that given the impending summer recess and the beginning of election campaign season, time is beginning to get short. International Judges and Prosecutors -------------- ¶7. (C) The PIC will also address extending past December the mandate of international judges and prosecutors working at the State Court and the State Prosdecutors Office. State Court President Meddzida Kreso and State Prosecutor Milorad Barasin have been lobbying since last February to extend the mandate of the internationals working on complex war crimes, organized crime, and terrorism cases for three years. Until recently, Justice Minister Colak had resisted acting on their request, but under pressure from the international community, forwarded an imperfect proposal that omitted international presence on organized crime cases. The proposal failed to pass the Council of Ministers, and Colak has promised to re-submit it in the coming weeks. Time has run out, as internationals are now looking for new positions and the State Court and the State Prosecutors Office are unable to work at full capacity due to the uncertainty concerning the fate of the internationals. The PIC will need to decide next steps on the issue, including the option of using Bonn Powers to retain, at a minimum, internationals working on ongoing war crimes cases. Bosnian Economy Weak and Now Hit by Economic Crisis -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Bosnia is one of the poorest countries in Europe and has yet to fully recover from the 1992-95 war. GDP per capita is only roughly $4,376. Economic growth over the past few years was an encouraging six percent annually, but the global economic crisis has now reached Bosnia. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that GDP will decline by three percent in 2009 and not begin to recover until 2010. The market for key exports such as aluminum and steel has collapsed, unemployment is at 23 percent (and higher among young people),and the two entities have both seen their budgets move into serious deficits. Remittances from Bosnians living abroad are an important part of the social safety net and make up an estimated 17 percent of GDP, but are expected to (at best) remain flat this year and will likely fall. Press reports indicate that at least 2,600 Bosnians have recently returned home after losing their jobs in Western Europe--a trend that will likely continue. Although various plans have been announced regarding government plans to mitigate the effects of the crisis, little has actually been done. ¶9. (SBU) On June 22, the IMF postponed a scheduled June 29 governing board meeting to approve a proposed $1.5 billion, 3-year standby arrangement until IMF conditions have been met. These included budget cuts at all levels of government. The RS entity and the State governments achieved the necessary cuts, but the Federation entity failed after capitulating last week to war veterans protesting proposed cuts to their benefits. Federation politicians from the ruling SDA party threaten to reject the IMF agreement if they are required to cut benefits to veterans and invalids. The Federation Finance Minister (a member of HDZ) says without the IMF loan, the Federation will be bankrupt by September or October. The RS is in similarly dire straits, and asked the IMF for separate financial support, a proposal the IMF rejected. ENGLISH