BOSNIA - STRUGGLING WITH DODIK ON BRCKO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 000070

SIPDIS

EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA - STRUGGLING WITH DODIK ON BRCKO

REF: A. A. 08 SARAJEVO 1655

B. B. 08 SARAJEVO 1899

Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. English. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad
Dodik remains the principal stumbling block to a resolution
on Brcko District. Seemingly backing off his long-standing
intransigence on constitutional amendments to resolve Brcko,
Dodik promised Ambassador and HighRep Lajcak in December that
he would consider an amendment. Based on Dodik's oral
suggestions, PDHR has changed the text of the proposed
amendments, and he has been pitched the revised texts to
Dodik's point man on Brcko, Igor Radojicic. Other key
officials in Dodik's party have expressed willingness to work
with us on amendments but, thus far, have not gained traction
with Dodik. Dodik, who appears to stand alone even within
his party in his contention with amendments, has made public
comments at odds with his private promises to Ambassador and
Lajcak. Most ominously, Dodik has publicly raised the need
for the RS to "reclaim" the "49 percent" of territory
guaranteed to it under Dayton -- implying the inclusion of
Brcko. The importance of these amendments, and the legal
protections they ensure for the District, is even greater if
Dodik is serious about these statements. Highlighting
Dodik's isolation on amendments and recognizing their
necessity, all 31 councilors -- including those from Dodik's
party -- in Brcko's government have signed a declaration
calling on their party leaders to endorse the amendments.
With the other major political parties poised to support
amendments, there are sufficient votes for their passage in
parliament (even without Haris Silajdzic's party),provided
Dodik shifts his position. With this in mind, we, along with
our Quint partners, need to keep the pressure on him to do
so. END SUMMARY

Dodik Delivers Welcome Words on Brcko
--------------


2. (C) Dodik in December appeared to moderate on
constitutional amendments on Brcko. (Note: In February 2008,
the PIC set as one of its five closure objectives that Brcko
must have adequate legal protection vis-a-vis its
relationship to the state and entities. OHR legal experts,
with U.S. support, crafted two amendments to accomplish this
goal. The first would, using language drawn from the Final
Award, codify Brcko's status in the Constitution; the second
would provide the District with a mechanism for securing
access to the Constitutional Court. End Note) (Ref A).
Dodik gave HighRep Lajcak on December 15 the same speech he
then delivered to Ambassador on December 22 (Ref B),
stressing that if ensuring Brcko access to the Constitutional
Court was the only issue, then he would be prepared to engage
with the Supervisor, OHR, and the USG to find acceptable
language for a constitutional amendment. Dodik told us that
he preferred one amendment to two and that he wanted Brcko
District to have a higher threshold for securing access to
the Constitutional Court than what OHR had proposed. (Note:
It was unclear whether Dodik's preference for a single
amendment was rooted in a substantive objection to repeating
language from the Final Award on Brcko in the Constitution or
political concerns about supporting two amendments as opposed
to one. End Note)

OHR and Embassy Try to Work with Dodik
--------------


3. (C) Based on Dodik's comments to Ambassador and the
HighRep, PDHR Gregorian has made two changes to the
amendments. First, the amendments now provide that Brcko may
refer a dispute to the Constitutional Court by a simple
majority decision in the District Assembly, including
one-third of elected councilors from each constituent people
(rather than one-fourth of all Assembly members without any
reference to constituent peoples, as was initially
suggested). Second, OHR offered to incorporate both
amendments into a constitutional annex, rather than including
them in the Constitution itself. This approach would involve
introducing a new article to the Constitution stating that
the status and powers of Brcko District and the jurisdiction
of the Constitutional Court concerning Brcko's status and
powers are set forth in a constitutional annex. (Note: The
Constitution already includes two annexes, and according to
OHR, they have the same legal force as a constitutional
amendment. OHR's aim in proposing it is to satisfy Dodik's
requirement for one amendment, which in this scenario would
be the new article to the Constitution referring to the
annex. End Note) PDHR pitched these changes to Dodik's point
man on Brcko, Igor Radojicic, who pledged to convey them to
Dodik.

Others in Dodik's Party Conciliatory but Gain Little Traction
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Despite this private back and forth over the text of
the amendments, comments to us from senior officials from
Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD)
suggest that Dodik has not entirely abandoned his opposition
to amendments -- in whatever form -- as he had implied in his
meetings with Ambassador and the HighRep. These same
officials have hinted that they do not understand Dodik's
visceral objections to amendments, and that they do not agree
with them. SNSD official and Serb tri-presidency member
Nebojsa Radmanovic told PDHR Gregorian on December 23 that he
understood the necessity of amendments. Radmanovic opined
that two obstacles might preclude SNSD's compliance with
constitutional amendments -- first, the Prud Agreement
stipulates a "constitutional law" (Ref B),and Dodik does not
want to be perceived as backing off from Prud, and second,
SNSD's official position is to seek resolution through a law.
(Note: These arguments strike us as red herrings. First,
Tihic and Covic have told us that they support amendments,
and we understand that Tihic and Covic have both assured
Radmanovic and Dodik that they would not view Dodik's
endorsement of amendments as a violation of Prud. Second,
SNSD's "official position" -- which Dodik changed in August
from support to opposition to amendments -- is controlled
fully by Dodik, and he has sufficient power in the party to
reverse it if he wishes to do so. End Note.)

Dodik Calls for Return of the RS's Half of Brcko
-------------- ---


5. (C) Dodik's public comments on Brcko since his private
assurances to Ambassador and the HighRep that he would take a
constructive approach on amendments also suggest that he is
backpedaling. Since his meetings with them he has lambasted
the idea of amendments in the RS and Serbian press. As part
of a two-hour New Year interview for the Republika Srpska
Radio and Television (RTRS) on December 30, Dodik noted that
the RS is already a "co-owner" of Brcko and, referring to the
proposed constitutional amendments, is "against being placed
in a position to do something against our own interest." He
added that a long-term solution for Brcko could be found only
after crafting a solution for Bosnia as a whole by "changing
the original principles of the Dayton Peace Agreement." More
ominously, in an interview with the Belgrade daily Vecernje
Novosti on January 7, Dodik declared that "we have not even
received all 49 percent of the territory that belongs to us
under Dayton. We want our territories back. We are not
interested in stories that the territory belongs to Bosnia
and is therefore ours already. No! I am only interested in
the RS, and others may agree on other things as they please."
(Note: The Bosnian Serbs have long held that Brcko is part
of their "49 percent." This assertion is incorrect, as Brcko
-- due to its status as "condominium" between the entities --
belongs to the RS and is therefore included in its "49
percent." The implication of Dodik's comment, however, is
that Brcko District should be partitioned between the RS and
the Federation such that Brcko would no longer physically
divide the RS territory as it does now. End Note.)

One Piece of Good News
--------------


6. (C) Brcko's own government recognizes the importance of
constitutional amendments to protect the District, and all 31
councilors in the District Assembly signed a declaration on
January 12 pledging to support amendments and to call on
their party leaders to do the same. The declaration also
affirms the councilors' commitment to the Final Award and
support for the Supervisor's efforts to "seek appropriate
remedies from the Arbitral Tribunal if this issue is not
timely resolved." The declaration is expected to pass in the
District Assembly during an extraordinary session following
the election of the new Speaker, Deputy Speaker, and Mayor.
Notably, the representatives of SNSD, the Serb Democratic
Party (SDS),and the Party for BiH (SBiH) supported the
declaration, even though the RS National Assembly in 1999
rejected the Final Award and has maintained that position
ever since, and Dodik and SBiH leader Silajdzic oppose
amendments. (Note: Silajdzic does not contest the text of
the proposed amendments, but he refuses to accept any
constitutional changes without revamping the entire
constitution. End Note.)

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Not surprisingly, there is an inconsistency between
Dodik's private promises to us on Brcko and his public
rhetoric. We continue to press Dodik, senior officials in
SNSD, and key Dodik aides on the need for constitutional
amendments to resolve Brcko. OHR assesses that SNSD's
support would ensure sufficient votes for the amendments to
pass in parliament. PDHR's recently amended proposal on the
text may well satisfy Dodik's concerns, but if -- as we have
previously assessed -- his battle on amendments is fueled by
personal animosity toward PDHR, he will remain a thorn in the
Brcko resolution process. More ominously, if Dodik means
what he says in the press about reclaiming the RS portion of
Brcko, then our problem on Brcko may be more daunting than we
had initially assessed. In this case, a solution on Brcko
that falls short of the legal protection that comes with
constitutional amendments yet precipitates the departure of
the Supervisor could well portend an attempt by the restive
RS to assert more control over the District down the road.
ENGLISH