BOSNIA - STRUGGLING WITH DODIK ON BRCKO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 000070 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS),NSC FOR HELGERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - STRUGGLING WITH DODIK ON BRCKO REF: A. A. 08 SARAJEVO 1655 ¶B. B. 08 SARAJEVO 1899 Classified By: Ambassador Charles L. English. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik remains the principal stumbling block to a resolution on Brcko District. Seemingly backing off his long-standing intransigence on constitutional amendments to resolve Brcko, Dodik promised Ambassador and HighRep Lajcak in December that he would consider an amendment. Based on Dodik's oral suggestions, PDHR has changed the text of the proposed amendments, and he has been pitched the revised texts to Dodik's point man on Brcko, Igor Radojicic. Other key officials in Dodik's party have expressed willingness to work with us on amendments but, thus far, have not gained traction with Dodik. Dodik, who appears to stand alone even within his party in his contention with amendments, has made public comments at odds with his private promises to Ambassador and Lajcak. Most ominously, Dodik has publicly raised the need for the RS to "reclaim" the "49 percent" of territory guaranteed to it under Dayton -- implying the inclusion of Brcko. The importance of these amendments, and the legal protections they ensure for the District, is even greater if Dodik is serious about these statements. Highlighting Dodik's isolation on amendments and recognizing their necessity, all 31 councilors -- including those from Dodik's party -- in Brcko's government have signed a declaration calling on their party leaders to endorse the amendments. With the other major political parties poised to support amendments, there are sufficient votes for their passage in parliament (even without Haris Silajdzic's party),provided Dodik shifts his position. With this in mind, we, along with our Quint partners, need to keep the pressure on him to do so. END SUMMARY Dodik Delivers Welcome Words on Brcko -------------- ¶2. (C) Dodik in December appeared to moderate on constitutional amendments on Brcko. (Note: In February 2008, the PIC set as one of its five closure objectives that Brcko must have adequate legal protection vis-a-vis its relationship to the state and entities. OHR legal experts, with U.S. support, crafted two amendments to accomplish this goal. The first would, using language drawn from the Final Award, codify Brcko's status in the Constitution; the second would provide the District with a mechanism for securing access to the Constitutional Court. End Note) (Ref A). Dodik gave HighRep Lajcak on December 15 the same speech he then delivered to Ambassador on December 22 (Ref B), stressing that if ensuring Brcko access to the Constitutional Court was the only issue, then he would be prepared to engage with the Supervisor, OHR, and the USG to find acceptable language for a constitutional amendment. Dodik told us that he preferred one amendment to two and that he wanted Brcko District to have a higher threshold for securing access to the Constitutional Court than what OHR had proposed. (Note: It was unclear whether Dodik's preference for a single amendment was rooted in a substantive objection to repeating language from the Final Award on Brcko in the Constitution or political concerns about supporting two amendments as opposed to one. End Note) OHR and Embassy Try to Work with Dodik -------------- ¶3. (C) Based on Dodik's comments to Ambassador and the HighRep, PDHR Gregorian has made two changes to the amendments. First, the amendments now provide that Brcko may refer a dispute to the Constitutional Court by a simple majority decision in the District Assembly, including one-third of elected councilors from each constituent people (rather than one-fourth of all Assembly members without any reference to constituent peoples, as was initially suggested). Second, OHR offered to incorporate both amendments into a constitutional annex, rather than including them in the Constitution itself. This approach would involve introducing a new article to the Constitution stating that the status and powers of Brcko District and the jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court concerning Brcko's status and powers are set forth in a constitutional annex. (Note: The Constitution already includes two annexes, and according to OHR, they have the same legal force as a constitutional amendment. OHR's aim in proposing it is to satisfy Dodik's requirement for one amendment, which in this scenario would be the new article to the Constitution referring to the annex. End Note) PDHR pitched these changes to Dodik's point man on Brcko, Igor Radojicic, who pledged to convey them to Dodik. Others in Dodik's Party Conciliatory but Gain Little Traction -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite this private back and forth over the text of the amendments, comments to us from senior officials from Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) suggest that Dodik has not entirely abandoned his opposition to amendments -- in whatever form -- as he had implied in his meetings with Ambassador and the HighRep. These same officials have hinted that they do not understand Dodik's visceral objections to amendments, and that they do not agree with them. SNSD official and Serb tri-presidency member Nebojsa Radmanovic told PDHR Gregorian on December 23 that he understood the necessity of amendments. Radmanovic opined that two obstacles might preclude SNSD's compliance with constitutional amendments -- first, the Prud Agreement stipulates a "constitutional law" (Ref B),and Dodik does not want to be perceived as backing off from Prud, and second, SNSD's official position is to seek resolution through a law. (Note: These arguments strike us as red herrings. First, Tihic and Covic have told us that they support amendments, and we understand that Tihic and Covic have both assured Radmanovic and Dodik that they would not view Dodik's endorsement of amendments as a violation of Prud. Second, SNSD's "official position" -- which Dodik changed in August from support to opposition to amendments -- is controlled fully by Dodik, and he has sufficient power in the party to reverse it if he wishes to do so. End Note.) Dodik Calls for Return of the RS's Half of Brcko -------------- --- ¶5. (C) Dodik's public comments on Brcko since his private assurances to Ambassador and the HighRep that he would take a constructive approach on amendments also suggest that he is backpedaling. Since his meetings with them he has lambasted the idea of amendments in the RS and Serbian press. As part of a two-hour New Year interview for the Republika Srpska Radio and Television (RTRS) on December 30, Dodik noted that the RS is already a "co-owner" of Brcko and, referring to the proposed constitutional amendments, is "against being placed in a position to do something against our own interest." He added that a long-term solution for Brcko could be found only after crafting a solution for Bosnia as a whole by "changing the original principles of the Dayton Peace Agreement." More ominously, in an interview with the Belgrade daily Vecernje Novosti on January 7, Dodik declared that "we have not even received all 49 percent of the territory that belongs to us under Dayton. We want our territories back. We are not interested in stories that the territory belongs to Bosnia and is therefore ours already. No! I am only interested in the RS, and others may agree on other things as they please." (Note: The Bosnian Serbs have long held that Brcko is part of their "49 percent." This assertion is incorrect, as Brcko -- due to its status as "condominium" between the entities -- belongs to the RS and is therefore included in its "49 percent." The implication of Dodik's comment, however, is that Brcko District should be partitioned between the RS and the Federation such that Brcko would no longer physically divide the RS territory as it does now. End Note.) One Piece of Good News -------------- ¶6. (C) Brcko's own government recognizes the importance of constitutional amendments to protect the District, and all 31 councilors in the District Assembly signed a declaration on January 12 pledging to support amendments and to call on their party leaders to do the same. The declaration also affirms the councilors' commitment to the Final Award and support for the Supervisor's efforts to "seek appropriate remedies from the Arbitral Tribunal if this issue is not timely resolved." The declaration is expected to pass in the District Assembly during an extraordinary session following the election of the new Speaker, Deputy Speaker, and Mayor. Notably, the representatives of SNSD, the Serb Democratic Party (SDS),and the Party for BiH (SBiH) supported the declaration, even though the RS National Assembly in 1999 rejected the Final Award and has maintained that position ever since, and Dodik and SBiH leader Silajdzic oppose amendments. (Note: Silajdzic does not contest the text of the proposed amendments, but he refuses to accept any constitutional changes without revamping the entire constitution. End Note.) Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Not surprisingly, there is an inconsistency between Dodik's private promises to us on Brcko and his public rhetoric. We continue to press Dodik, senior officials in SNSD, and key Dodik aides on the need for constitutional amendments to resolve Brcko. OHR assesses that SNSD's support would ensure sufficient votes for the amendments to pass in parliament. PDHR's recently amended proposal on the text may well satisfy Dodik's concerns, but if -- as we have previously assessed -- his battle on amendments is fueled by personal animosity toward PDHR, he will remain a thorn in the Brcko resolution process. More ominously, if Dodik means what he says in the press about reclaiming the RS portion of Brcko, then our problem on Brcko may be more daunting than we had initially assessed. In this case, a solution on Brcko that falls short of the legal protection that comes with constitutional amendments yet precipitates the departure of the Supervisor could well portend an attempt by the restive RS to assert more control over the District down the road. ENGLISH