BOSNIA -- DODIK CALLS ON SERB SOLDIERS TO QUIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000578

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2019
TAGS: PREL MARR BA
SUBJECT: BOSNIA -- DODIK CALLS ON SERB SOLDIERS TO QUIT
GEORGIAN EXERCISE

REF: SARAJEVO 554

Classified By: Amb. Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) During a ribbon-cutting ceremony at the opening of a
new Mercatur supermarket in Banja Luka on May 7, Republika
Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Dodik called on Serb members of
Bosnia's Armed Forces to disobey lawful orders and to refuse
to participate in the NATO Partnership for Peace (PfP)
Cooperative Longbow/Lancer exercise beginning in Georgia this
week. Despite the fact that the exercise was approved by
Bosnia's Tri-Presidency and leadership of Bosnia's
multi-ethnic Ministry of Defense (reftel),Dodik alleged that
Bosnia's participation in the exercise was not a product of
"serious political consideration." He said that while he did
not care about relations between Russia and Bosnia, he was
concerned about the relationship between Russia and the RS.
He called on Serbs who had already deployed to return, and
"Serbs who are supposed to go there not to go."

Ambassador Stresses U.S. Concern
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador called Dodik to stress U.S. displeasure
with the statement. The Ambassador said that such statements
undermine state institutions and call into question Dodik's
supposed commitment to Dayton. The embassy will release a
press statement this afternoon, May 8, saying the same, the
Ambassador said, unless Dodik retracts his statement by that
time. Dodik tried to downplay his comments, saying he was
just expressing his opinion, that he was under "internal
pressure" in the RS, that it will anyway look like a personal
defeat for him because the soldiers will deploy as planned,
and that he thought that the Minister of Defense made the
decision on his own until Serb member of the Presidency
Radmanovic called him.

Members of Presidency React
--------------


3. (SBU) Dodik's statement provoked a strong reaction from
Bosnia's other leaders. Croat member of Bosnia's
Tri-Presidency called on High Representative Inzko to use the
Bonn powers to "forbid (Dodik) to carry out any political
activity, because of evident violation of constitutional
organization of BiH, the Dayton Peace Agreement and because
of serious consequences arising from Dodik's activity."
Komsic also called on the BiH Prosecutor's Office to file
criminal charges against Dodik for instigating criminal
activity by urging soldiers to desert. Bosniak member of the
Presidency Haris Silajdzic responded on television that
Bosnia's participation in the exercise was an important part
of the government's obligation to make positive steps towards
NATO integration.


4. (C) Silajdzic added that the Presidency had approved
Bosnia's participation in the exercise before the (recent)
conflict in Georgia began. Serb member of the Presidency
Radmanovic made no statement after Dodik's, but the press is
widely quoting a statement he made two days earlier stating
that Bosnia's Minister of Defense made the decision to
participate in the exercise in accordance with the law and
the defense training plan previously approved by the
Presidency. (NOTE: The plan was approved in 2008. END
NOTE.) Radmanovic said in that statement, "(The Presidency)
could have prevented participation in the exercise if its
stance on the issue were united." In a private meeting with
the Ambassador two days earlier, Radmanovic told him that he
had worked to support Bosnia's participation in the exercise
but that he was under personal pressure for his support of
the exercise.

Defense Minister: Serb Soldiers Will Ignore Dodik
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Bosnia's Minister of Defense Selmo Cikotic (Bosniak)
sent an unsolicited note to us through his cabinet that he
had spoken to Bosnia's Chief of Defense Milojcic (Serb) about
the statement. He reported that Milojcic assured him that
"there would not be any rebellions and the chain of command
will not be disobeyed." We believe that six of Bosnia's 17
soldiers deploying to Georgia are Serb (based on their
names),including three captains who have already deployed.
The other three Serb soldiers are slated to depart May 20.
We have confirmed with organizers on the ground that all
Bosnian soldiers have reported as scheduled so far, and

SARAJEVO 00000578 002 OF 002


organizers will report to us immediately if there are
absences for any reason.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) While we do not expect insubordination or a breakdown
in the military chain of command, Dodik's comments represent
a direct and unacceptable challenge to a state-level
institution critical to Bosnia's security, the Dayton Peace
Agreement, and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Dodik's claim that
the decision for the Armed Forces to participate in the
exercise was political is patently false and deliberately
misleading. Dodik regularly asserts his commitment to and
support for Dayton, but his comments raise profound questions
about whether the international community can safely conclude
that Dodik is prepared to fully comply with the Dayton Peace
Agreement and whether he is prepared to refrain from rhetoric
or actions that would threaten or violate the agreement.
ENGLISH