BOSNIA - SDA CONGRESS FORECASTS TURNING POINT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 000556 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS); NSC FOR HELGERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - SDA CONGRESS FORECASTS TURNING POINT IN BOSNIAK POLITICS Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: As the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) gears up for its party congress on May 26 -- at which it will elect its party president -- both party leadership and rank and file are preparing to make a crucial choice between moving SDA along its current, progressive path and shifting the party's politics markedly to the right. The candidates for party president are the incumbent, Sulejman Tihic; the right-wing Bakir Izetbegovic; and the less popular, pro-EU Adnan Terzic. Tihic continues to command the support of moderate SDA officials throughout the country, a number of whom have told us in no uncertain terms that an Izetbegovic victory -- which they perceive would push SDA into the arms of Islamic extremists and away from its pro-EU path -- would precipitate irreconcilable rifts in the party and possibly even a formal split. Meanwhile, Izetbegovic -- with the backing of the Islamic community and a behind-the-scenes endorsement from Party for BiH (SBiH) leader Haris Silajdzic -- is campaigning vigorously throughout the country to take over Tihic's seat, relying on Tihic's leadership of the party during the collapsed April Package talks to fare worse for him than Izetbegovic's own lack of connection with the party rank and file. By all accounts, Terzic would be an unlikely victor, but his resonance with pro-EU SDA officials may lead him to take votes from Tihic. As SDA prepares for its congress, business has all but stopped in the other Bosniak parties as they anxiously await the results, which will set the course for those parties' relationship with SDA. For us, as Tihic victory would mean that SDA, as imperfect as its current governing structure may be, would remain a key ally on initiatives important for Bosnia's future, but an Izetbegovic victory -- in spite of Izetbegovic's willingness to work with the USG -- could well worsen Bosniak nationalism, stall cooperation on Prud as the Croat and Serb parties balk at working with Izetbegovic, and help rejuvenate the stumbling, and increasingly discredited, Silajdzic. END SUMMARY All Eyes on SDA Congress -------------- ¶2. (C) SDA will elect its leadership at its party congress on May 26, the anniversary of the party's founding. The presidential race will pit the incumbent -- the moderate Sulejman Tihic -- against Bakir Izetbegovic, the right-wing son of Alija Izetbegovic, one of SDA's founders and Bosnia's wartime President. Former Council of Ministers (CoM) chairman Adnan Terzic also plans to run for the presidency, although all SDA officials with whom we have spoken view him as a distant third to Tihic and Izetbegovic. The candidate lists will be finalized on May 10, and no other party officials are expected to run. As the date of the congress draws closer, the candidates are increasingly consumed with the campaign, and in the meantime, many other initiatives -- including the Prud Agreement and elements of the PIC's "five plus two" requirements for OHR closure -- have stalled as SDA and other parties await the outcome of the presidential race. Tihic Stays Quiet and Commands Support of Moderates -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Tihic thus far has been quiet in the press about his candidacy, and he has not traveled extensively to campaign in local areas. Nonetheless, Tihic is able to ride on the support of his traditional strongholds, including Bihac and Tuzla, whose officials vehemently oppose Izetbegovic and fear the nationalist direction in which he would take SDA if elected. SDA leaders in Bihac and Tuzla told us that unlike Tihic, who has frequently traveled around the country as party president, Izetbegovic is not in touch with the majority of his party rank and file and rarely left Sarajevo prior to his presidential campaign. Several SDA officials throughout the country have intimated to us that Izetbegovic's victory could lead many current SDA members to "reexamine their membership in the party" amid concerns that Izetbegovic as president would open the door for radicals to rise to power. Izetbegovic Ready for Change -------------- ¶4. (C) In contrast to Tihic's sanguine supporters, Izetbegovic forecasts a victory with 60-70 percent of the SARAJEVO 00000556 002 OF 003 vote, including full support from Zenica and Sarajevo. He told us that he attributes his support to the perception that he would be a stronger leader than Tihic due to Izetbegovic's 20 years of experience within the party. Izetbegovic's principal tool of leverage is Tihic's leadership of the party during the failed April Package talks, which Izetbegovic claims collapsed because Tihic did not sufficiently involve the top party officials in the negotiations. He also claims Tihic insufficiently manages the more conservative elements of SDA, arguing that as party president he would work to bring them closer into the fold so that their conservative politics "could be held in check." Izetbegovic is sanguine about the prospects of dialogue with Covic and Dodik in the spirit of Prud if he won the election, but he noted that he has "spent only ten minutes with Dodik in his life" and has no relationship with him. Although convinced he will capture Tihic's seat, Izetbegovic confirmed press reports that he plans to withdraw from the party leadership if Tihic wins. Silajdzic and Islamic Community Line Up Behind Izetbegovic -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Izetbegovic told us that Silajdzic offered him assistance in his campaign but that he refused it because he believed SBiH's endorsement could only hurt him. He also promised he did not solicit support from the Islamic community, which nonetheless freely gives it. Although he does not enjoy widespread SDA delegate support outside Sarajevo, Izetbegovic's close ties with the Islamic community are helping boost his campaign. The President of the SDA Cantonal Board in Tuzla -- an ardent Tihic supporter -- told us that after the candidate lists are published, Islamic community officials will begin calling people individually, cajoling or even threatening them into supporting Izetbegovic. Implicit endorsements from Dnevni Avaz also aid Izetbegovic's candidacy. Terzic Trails but Stays Alive -------------- ¶6. (C) Terzic is the hapless third-place candidate who may take votes from Tihic in the election due to Terzic's resonance with some of the pro-European elements of SDA. Under the guise of his position as party VP -- and in a move he has not taken in the past -- Terzic has engaged in an intense campaign with local SDA boards all over the country. Terzic also has received public support from former HighRep Paddy Ashdown, who told the pro-Bosniak daily -- and Bosnia's widest-circulation newspaper -- Dnevni Avaz that Terzic is a good man who "has the interests of Bosnia and its citizens at heart" and is prepared for hard work and not afraid of risk in the name of progress. Ashdown added that he is pleased to see that Terzic is a candidate for SDA president. Nonetheless, not one SDA official with whom we have spoken considers Terzic a serious candidate, and none of them plan to vote for him. Bringing In SDP and SBiH -------------- ¶7. (C) The SDA congress will also set the course for the party's cooperation with the other Bosniak parties. A Tihic win would deal a blow to Silajdzic, as it would help cement SDA's shift away from Silajdzic's "all or nothing" politics and toward a policy of compromise and constructivism. Izetbegovic's allegiance to the ideology of SBiH would translate into the closer alliance -- if not outright merger -- of the two parties. Meanwhile, both Izetbegovic himself and SDP officials have stressed to us that cooperation between SDA and SDP would all but collapse if Izetbegovic won. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) By setting the tone for the near-term future of Bosniak politics, the outcome of the SDA congress also may well determine the course of our relationship with the party. A Tihic victory would indicate firm support from the party rank and file for his moderate politics based on compromise and moving the country toward the EU. Moreover, although SDA's governance under Tihic is far from perfect, he has invested in his relationship with Covic and Dodik such that the trio can continue the initiatives begun under Prud. Although Izetbegovic genuinely seeks closer ties with the SARAJEVO 00000556 003 OF 003 USG, a victory for him would deal a blow to initiatives like Prud, as Dodik in particular would be unlikely to work with a conservative Bosniak politician like Izetbegovic. Moreover, Izetbegovic's professed ties with the party's Islamic fundamentalists and desire to bring them closer into the fold -- as well as his public assertions of Bosniak nationalism throughout his tenure as SDA VP -- could steer the most successful Bosniak party in a far more conservative and nationalist direction. The potential in that scenario for the resurgence of the waning Silajdzic is also worth considering. We therefore are awaiting the results of the congress -- and the change in SDA policy it may bring -- with as much anticipation as all other major parties in Bosnia. ENGLISH