BOSNIA - SCENESETTER FOR THE MARCH 25-26 PEACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 000348 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(JONES),EUR/SCE(FOOKS/MCGUIRE); NSC FOR HELGERSON/WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KDEM KJUS BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - SCENESETTER FOR THE MARCH 25-26 PEACE IMPLEMENTATION COUNCIL (PIC) Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Peace Implementation Council (PIC) will meet in Sarajevo on March 25-26. Despite Bosnia's problems, including continued nationalist rhetoric and challenges to the Dayton constitutional order, the PIC is expected to be non-eventful. Hopes among PIC members, particularly Russia and certain EU member states, that progress on the so-called 5-plus-2 agenda would be sufficient for the PIC to take a decision to close OHR have not been met. The parliament will consider an amendment to the constitution on March 25, just before the PIC begins, which, if adopted as currently drafted, would be sufficient to close out the Brcko objective, but there has been very little progress on state property and some back sliding on moveable defense property. Nonetheless, Russia, perhaps supported by some EU member states, may propose communique language designed to box the PIC on a closure decision in June. We will need to be prepared to resist this. Finally, the March PIC marks the formal end to Miroslav Lajcak's tenure as High Representative and the beginning of his successor's Valentin Inzko, something the PIC will certainly note in its communique. Finally, Bosnia is now facing the effects of the global economic crisis, which instead of bringing political officials together, has only exacerbated existing ethnic tensions. END SUMMARY Putting Off a Decision on OHR Closure -------------- ¶2. (C) At the November 2008 PIC many delegations expressed their hope that progress implementing the PIC's 5-plus-2 agenda would be sufficient by March that the PIC could take a decision to close at its meeting next week. Some PIC members went so far as to suggest that OHR accept a "police reform style compromise" on 5-plus-2 issues (i.e., no meaningful reform) in order to facilitate OHR's closure and transition to EUSR. Insistence by the U.S. and other liked-minded PIC members, notably the UK and Turkey, on full implementation of 5-plus-2, the absence of progress on key elements of 5-plus-2, and a post-Prud resurgence of nationalist rhetoric, including talk of RS secession and speculation about "war," have convinced PIC members that a decision to close in March �0A;cannot be justified. From our perspective, a delay also makes sense given our assessment that the EU continues to lack a credible plan for managing post-Dayton Bosnia. We do not expect any PIC member to press for a decision on closure next week, but Russia and some EU member states are likely to continue to stress that closure should occur sooner rather than later. Russia may even seek to hem the PIC in on closure decision in June via communique language. We will need to be prepared to beat this back. Brcko: Setting the Mood -------------- ¶3. (C) We are in the home stretch of our efforts to secure passage of the Brcko amendment. The Constitutional and Legal Affairs Committees (CLAC) of both the House of Representatives (HoR) and the House of Peoples (HoP) will convene on March 23 - two days before the PIC - for a final discussion of the text at committee level. The HoR is scheduled to vote on final passage on March 25 just prior to the PIC, and the HoP on the same or following day. We are close to securing the two-third majority in the HoR (28 out of 42 delegates),but we are not there yet. We have received pledges of support from 28 parliamentarians, but we want to secure a few more votes to prevent potential political defectors from bringing down the amendment. We are better positions in the HoP. Haris Silajdzic and his Party for BiH (SBiH) are fueling most of the opposition to the amendment. As in 2006 when he opposed a U.S.-brokered package of constitutional amendments, Silajdzic and his allies are playing the politics of fear and peddling conspiracy theories to try on derail the Brcko amendment. The outcome of the vote(s) on March 25 will likely set the mood for the PIC. State Property/Defense Property: No Progress and a Setback -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) There has been very limited progress resolving state property despite several "agreements" among the Prud signatories on the issue. The stumbling block remains a SARAJEVO 00000348 002 OF 002 dispute between Serbs and Bosniaks over whether all state property should first be registered as state property prior the distribution of any state property to lower levels of government. Tihic and Covic claim Dodik accepted such an arrangement in December; a claim Dodik denies. In the meantime, Nikola Spiric, Chairman of the Council of Ministers (CoM),has been blocking the crucial step of initiating an inventory of state property by failing to place the issue before the CoM. The political deadlock on state property has prevented agreement on immoveable defense property despite the fact that a legal framework for addressing it, including a transfer agreement, is complete. More disturbingly, the earlier agreement on moveable state property has been blocked by the Presidency's failure to approve a disposal plan for surplus ammunition, weapons and military equipment. The failure to implement the now 12-month old agreement underscores the wisdom of our insisting on an "acceptable and sustainable" resolution of defense property as a condition for OHR's closure. Goodbye Miroslav, Welcome Valentin -------------- ¶5. (C) This PIC will also formally mark the end of Miroslav Lajcak's tenure as High Representative and the beginning of his replacement's tenure, Valentin Inzko. This interpretation of the transition from Lajcak to Inzko is widely accepted within the PIC except by the Russians, who have argued that Inzko will not assume his duties and powers as HighRep until the UN Security Council (UNSC) formally endorses him. Though the UNSC did endorse Lajcak's selection, it did not endorse his predecessor's, Schwarz-Schilling. It is unclear how much of a fuss over the issue the Russians are prepared to make at the PIC, but we do not want there to be a political vacuum between Lajcak's departure and Inzko's assumption of the duties, and more importantly, the powers of High Representative. Economic Problems Aggravate Ethnic Tensions -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Not only has the political climate deteriorated since the last PIC, but Bosnia is now facing the effects of the global economic crisis, which instead of bringing political officials together, has only exacerbated existing ethnic tensions. The Federation Government has resolved its 2008 budget deficit with a commercial loan, but will face bigger budget problems in 2009 unless it restructures its social contribution system. The tight credit picture in the commercial banking sector will tighten even the loan to the Federation Government will directly affect credit available to the Bosnian private sector. Although Federation officials are still pushing for negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to seek longer-term budgetary support, lack of cooperation and willingness from RS colleagues make such a deal unlikely. In addition to creating a serious political debate on the balance of ethnic power in joint institutions, these two positions call into question public confidence in the country's financial sector during a serious economic downturn. ENGLISH