BOSNIA - RSNA CAUTIOUSLY ENDORSES BRCKO AMENDMENT;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 000258 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS); NSC FOR HELGERSON; OSD FOR BEIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - RSNA CAUTIOUSLY ENDORSES BRCKO AMENDMENT; DODIK REAFFIRMS HIS SUPPORT REF: A. SARAJEVO 190 ¶B. SARAJEVO 228 Classified By: DCM Judith Cefkin. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On February 25, the Republika Srpska National Assembly (RSNA) adopted: 1) an RS Government report endorsing the text of the proposed constitutional amendment on Brcko (Ref A),2) a conclusion urging Serb delegates in the state-level Parliament to support the amendment but also to propose a change that would allow Brcko to bring a case to the Constitutional Court against "one or both entities," rather than "one or more entities," and 3) a conclusion calling on RS representatives at each stage of the approval process to bear RS interests in mind when dealing with Brcko. The RSNA debate highlighted concerns among some of the Serb parties about the "one or more entities" language but underscored that the drive of all parties to meet this PIC objective -- and therefore take one step closer to closing OHR -- is stronger. Notably, RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik declared to the RSNA and to us that despite the recent criminal report that the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) filed against him with the State Prosecutor's Office (Ref B),he and his party will support the amendment. Despite the fact that the RSNA endorsed the amendment and Dodik has pledged his support, the RSNA did not overturn its 1999 resolution rejecting the Final Award. Although the RSNA conclusions are not binding on the Serb delegates in the state-level Parliament, the vote is indicative of what we can expect from these parties in the weeks to come. END SUMMARY. RSNA Gives Its Nod but Suggests Revision on Entity Language -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At a special session on Brcko on February 25, the RSNA adopted an RS Government report that endorses the text of the proposed amendment, which is now working its way through the state-level Parliament (Ref A). The RSNA also adopted two sets of conclusions. The first conclusion, which Dodik's ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) proposed, states that the RSNA supports the adoption of a constitutional amendment on Brcko District and invites RS delegates in the state-level Parliament to vote for the amendment. The conclusion includes a sentence, which SNSD added during the course of the debate, that also invites delegates in the state-level Parliament to propose changing the stipulation allowing Brcko to bring a case to the Constitutional Court against "one or more entities," rather than "one or both entities." The RSNA's second conclusion -- proposed by one of the SNSD's small coalition partners, the Socialist Party (SP) -- calls on all RS political representatives at each stage of the amendment's passage to pay special attention to the full protection of RS interests on issues related to Brcko. Debate Underscores Uncertainty from Other Serb Parties ... -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The most contentious element of the debate centered on the "one or more entities" language. Representatives from the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) -- and, to a lesser extent, from the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) -- opined that the phrase "more entities" makes the issue of how many entities hold Brcko in condominium unclear. Some parliamentarians suggested that if additional entities were created in the future, those entities might also try to claim part of Brcko, thereby reducing the RS's stake in the District. Vojislav Gligic, who recently left SDS to join Dragan Cavic's Democratic Party, declared that the RSNA should only support a revised text of the amendment without the "more entities" phrase, arguing that urging state-level parliamentarians to ask for an amendment is not sufficient. Eventually Dodik intervened to explain the reasoning behind the phrase, saying that it leaves all options open for future negotiations. However, he reiterated that this amendment does not change the constitutional arrangement of Bosnia and that Serbs must and will be included in any future decision to do so. ... But the Specter of OHR Closure Brings Them Together -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) RSNA delegates at the session repeatedly referred to the amendment as one step closer to the closure of the Office SARAJEVO 00000258 002 OF 003 of the High Representative (OHR) and emphasized that RS representatives should support it so as to achieve this goal. During his remarks to the RSNA, Dodik referred to a letter he received from Acting High Representative and Brcko District Supervisor Raffi Gregorian. Dodik declared that in the letter, Gregorian assured him that this amendment, if passed, will provide Brcko with adequate protections for Gregorian to recommend the termination of the supervisory regime. RSNA officials later distributed a copy of the letter to all of the delegates. RSNA Speaker Igor Radojicic of SNSD urged the delegates to adopt the information and SNSD conclusions, saying if the amendment passes in Sarajevo, then the RS will achieve the end of Supervision, end Brcko arbitration, and fulfill a PIC requirement. He also pointed out that the state Parliament, if it adopts this amendment, will in effect confirm the Dayton Constitution for the first time. The RSNA conclusions reflected these sentiments, stating that this amendment fulfills a key PIC objective and ensures that the conditions for ending the supervisory regime of Brcko District and the cessation of the existence of the Arbitral Tribunal, per the 1999 Final Award, will have been met. Dodik Publicly and Privately Conveys Support -------------- ¶5. (C) During his introductory remarks to the session, Dodik asserted that the amendment is good for the RS, good for Brcko, and good for all three peoples in Bosnia. Dodik added that this amendment was "confirmed" before SIPA filed a criminal report against him with the State Prosecutor's Office (Ref B) and that therefore "I see no reason not to let this go forward -- we will responsibly fulfill our obligations." He asserted that although "there is clear parallelism in state institutions, which must change," the Brcko amendment should continue to progress. Dodik later confirmed both to RSNA and to us privately that although the RSNA conclusion recommended changing the phrase "one or more entities," he will support the text of the amendment, regardless of whether or not that change is approved. Dodik insisted that the text of the amendment as it currently stands poses no threat to the RS or its interests, and if consensus cannot be reached, then SNSD is ready to vote for the amendment as it is. The 1999 Resolution Remains in Place -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Despite its willingness to support the amendment, the RSNA did not overturn its own 1999 resolution rejecting the Final Arbitral Award on Brcko. Petar Djokic, SP President and Brcko resident, opined that conditions in Bosnia have changed since 1999 and that the RSNA should "tell the people of Brcko that we do not question their status and let them continue to live in peace." However, Radojicic and others mentioned several times that the RS has "in practice" respected the Award. Radojicic said that the RS accepted the arbitration process in Dayton and participated in it, and that the RS has, "in essence, over ten years, implemented it." He added that the RSNA "expressed its dissatisfaction with the Award in 1999" but since then has accepted the Award "indirectly" through numerous laws that the RNSA has passed. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The RSNA's endorsement of the Brcko amendment gives it a little extra momentum as it goes before Parliament for its first reading on March 4. The vociferous objection from PDP and SDS to the "one or more entities" language, though, underscores that support from other major Serb parties may be shaky. Although the leaders of both parties have pledged to us that they will direct their parliamentarians to vote in favor of the amendment in Parliament, we will need to keep both parties engaged as the amendment passes through the approval process. Dodik's endorsement of the amendment suggests that, like the other RS parties, his drive for OHR closure supersedes his desire to obstruct state institutions as a result of the SIPA report, but knowing his proclivity for visceral reactions, he may well try to use Brcko and other international community priorities as leverage down the road if the SIPA investigation proceeds. We will need to keep a careful eye on him. The fact that the RSNA did not overturn the 1999 resolution should not cause significant SARAJEVO 00000258 003 OF 003 complications, as a constitutional amendment by its very nature would transcend an RS resolution. Trying to overturn the resolution now may tap into political sensitivities within the RS and could cause more problems than it solves. All in all, we're on the right track with the RS parties on Brcko, but we cannot yet consider any of them a foregone conclusion. ENGLISH