BOSNIA - SIPA REPORT PRECIPITATES COLLAPSE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 000223 SIPDIS EUR/SCE (HYLAND, FOOKS); INL (CARROLL); NSC FOR HELGERSON; OSD FOR BEIN E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - SIPA REPORT PRECIPITATES COLLAPSE OF TALKS ON CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND DRIVES DODIK TO PARANOIA REF: SARAJEVO 210 Classified By: DCM Judith Cefkin. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In the days following the news of the criminal report that the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) filed with the State Prosecutor's Office against Republika Srpska (RS) PM Milorad Dodik and his associates (Reftel),Dodik and his party have vacillated between fits of paranoia -- including demands for the right of entities to secede and accusations of international conspiracies -- and calls for democratic negotiations. The Executive Board of Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) met on February 20 -- two days after the news of the report broke -- and concluded, inter alia, that parallel institutions exist in Bosnia to the detriment of the RS but that the RS should continue negotiating before "making any concrete moves." SNSD also called on citizens of the RS to "use all democratic means" to protect the RS. The following day, Dodik walked out of negotiations on constitutional reform with the other two signatories to the Prud Agreement -- Party of Democratic Action (SDA) chairman Sulejman Tihic and Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)-BiH chairman Dragan Covic -- after Tihic and Covic refused to allow a provision granting entities the right to secede. In an interview later that day, Dodik walked back from some of his emotional threats from the day the news broke (Reftel), and he insisted he would continue to cooperate on the PIC's "five plus two" requirements. However, he laid out an unconstructive agenda on constitutional reform and accused Principal Deputy High Representative (PDHR) Gregorian of conspiring against him. Tihic has reacted to Dodik's behavior with predictable alarm, while Covic has downplayed the danger Dodik presents and predicted that negotiations would continue soon. Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) leader Mladen Ivanic, though, has told us that Dodik genuinely believes the conspiracy theories he promulgates, making him even more volatile than he might otherwise be. END SUMMARY. SNSD Tries to Take Moral High Ground ... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) After the RS government's discussion of the SIPA report on February 20 (Reftel),the SNSD Executive Board met on the same day to craft a reaction to the report. The Board reached a number of conclusions, among them: -- The SIPA report represents an open attack of "parallel structures in Bosnia" to the constitutional integrity of the RS, with the goal of abolishing the RS. -- "Unequal ethnic representation" in state institutions and foreign prosecutors' participation in "parallel institutions" are to blame for this criminal report. -- Anti-Dayton and anti-European forces are engaging in this process to ensure that OHR stays in Bosnia. -- SNSD invites all citizens, political parties, and NGOs to use "all democratic means" to prevent the destabilization and abolition of the RS. -- Before making any concrete moves, SNSD will "give negotiations one more chance" to try to bring down "parallel structures" in state institutions. (Note: In an interview on February 22 for tQRadio Television Republika Srpska (RTRS), Dodik declared that he will first disQss the "parallel structures" with leaders of joint institutions, and then if that does not work, the RS will withdraw its representatives from state institutions. End Note.) -- SNSD does not encourage its officials to leave state institutions, but its officials aQobliged to disable the "parallel functioning" in those institutions. -- SNSD will stay on the path of the Prud Agreement but does not support extending the mandate of foreign judges and prosecutors. ... Then Dodik Throws Secession On the Table -------------- SARAJEVO 00000223 002 OF 003 ¶3. (SBU) On February 21 -- the day after the news of the report broke -- Dodik met the other two Prud signatories, Tihic and Covic, in Mostar to discuss platforms for constitutional reform. Dodik laid out three conditions for proceeding with the meeting: 1) Tihic and Covic must accept the RS as a constitutional entity in its current territorial capacity and competencies, 2) Tihic and Covic must accept entity voting as indisputable, and 3) any new constitution must codify the right of territorial units to secession, as determined by a referendum of all citizens in that particular federal unit. When Tihic and Covic predictably rejected these conditions, particularly the third condition, Dodik left the meeting. Dodik Takes a Chill Pill ... -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Shortly after curtailing the meeting in Mostar, Dodik gave a lengthy interview for the private news agency Hayat, in which he declared that the collapse of that day's talks did not portend the collapse of Prud. He stressed that his walk-out was related only to constitutional reform, not other elements of Prud, which Dodik made a point of stressing that he supports. The first example he cited was Brcko, reaffirming that the amendment on Brcko should be adopted as part of the PIC requirements. He also declared support for resolving state property and conducting a census. On constitutional reform, he insisted that Bosnia should be organized into "asymmetric federation with confederal elements" in which one part of the country could transfer authorities to the state level but that the transfer would not be binding on the other elements. He noted, though, that "I am not planning to make an armada here. I am not in for any adventures." ... But Only Swallows Half of It -------------- ¶5. (SBU) As the Hayat interview went on, Dodik became increasingly hostile, and the interviewer observed his "panic." Dodik repeatedly declared that the SIPA report was "orchestrated" against him and that he would not face the State Court, as it would harass him and bring him down as -- so he claimed -- it had done with Serb leaders in the past. Dodik reiterated that the SIPA report was composed "by you media here in Sarajevo who have always made claims in an effort to bring down Milorad Dodik and in a naive hope that Dodik would be succeeded by someone in the RS that would listen to your instructions from Sarajevo, in an effort to degrade or annul the RS." He accused PDHR Gregorian of "organizing a group of people and media pressure" on Dodik. He implied that Gregorian was grasping at straws to stay in Bosnia and opined that OHR's selection of a new HighRep highlighted the international community's desperation to keep OHR in Bosnia. Dodik declared that PDHR Gregorian "and the people he gathered around him aim to deal foremost with the concept of the RS, and through that with me." He later declared that "why couldn't there be Embassies in Banja Luka? Maybe there will be." The host replied that "only a Consulate could be located there." Dodik retorted, "That is what you say." He then reiterated past statements that if OHR tried to remove him, he would "call the government in a private house or some other facility, hold a session, and pass relevant decisions. If that would be insufficient, I would establish an NGO." Finally, he declared that Bosniaks would gladly recognize Kosovo irrespective of the RS position on it, as Bosniaks are motivated by spite, which is impossible for him to work with. Tihic Gasps, Covic Shrugs -------------- ¶6. (SBU) When the news of the SIPA report broke, Tihic declared that there are no parallel structures within state institutions. He expressed concern that the report was filed just days before the Prud leaders were to meet to discuss constitutional reform, opining that "someone is trying to provoke Dodik." Covic echoed those musings, suggesting that the report could "damage the positive atmosphere in future negotiations." After the meeting, SDA declared in a press statement that it "rejected separatist concepts of constitutional reforms that are contrary to a unitary Bosnia and Herzegovina." SDA stated that it therefore believes SARAJEVO 00000223 003 OF 003 Dodik's positions at Mostar were "unacceptable" with regard to the indisputability of the RS, the strengthening of entity voting, and "secession and referendum." SDA concluded that "not even genocide or aggressive war were able to destroy Bosnia, so neither will unfounded blackmail and ultimatums from Milorad Dodik." Covic in a press statement on February 22 took a less dire approach, opining that the situation is not as dramatic as it appeared in the media and that talks will continue. Covic denied that Dodik walked out of the meetings after his conditions were rejected. He contended instead that the three men mutually concluded that the present atmosphere is not conducive to any concrete talks, so they agreed to postpone the meeting for 15 days and will try to meet again to exchange their constitutional reform platforms. Ivanic Warns Us: Take Dodik Seriously -------------- ¶7. (C) We spoke with Ivanic after the talks in Mostar collapsed, and -- contrary to Covic's sanguine statements in the press -- he cautioned us against taking Dodik's paranoia lightly. Ivanic said he had spoken with Dodik that morning and that Dodik seemed irrational and not grounded at all. He also expressed concern that Dodik and those around him are planning to "radicalize the situation in the RS." He assessed that public comments from Dodik and others are, at a minimum, designed to "leave all options open." Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Dodik's reactions to the SIPA report have been viscerally emotional but have potentially dangerous implications. Although he seemed to soften some of his threats during the weekend as compared to the day the news of the SIPA report broke, he has indicated that an indictment would provoke a serious RS response, such as those outlined in SNSD's statement. Moreover, SNSD's call to RS citizens is ominous given the claims about international conspiracies and parallel structures inside state institutions that are out to get Dodik. Although these conspiracy theories lack merit to the trained observer, Dodik and those around him believe them and are likely to react to developments accordingly. In the near term, we do not anticipate any major regression of the progress we have made on the PIC's "five plus two" objectives, as Dodik -- now more than ever -- desperately wants internationals, who he sees as the driving force behind the SIPA report, to leave Bosnia. That said, his emotional and threatening response to the SIPA report suggests that he could obstruct even these initiatives if an investigation proceeds. ENGLISH