BOSNIA - MOSQUE FIRE SPARKS MUTUAL RECRIMINATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 000002 SIPDIS EUR/SCE FOR FOOKS, STINCHCOMB, HYLAND; NSC FOR HELGERSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - MOSQUE FIRE SPARKS MUTUAL RECRIMINATIONS IN SOUTHERN REPUBLIKA SRPSKA Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Judith Cefkin, for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: A mosque in a predominantly-Bosniak village in Eastern Republika Srpska (RS) caught fire on December 7, the eve of a major Islamic holiday. Almost immediately, political and religious leaders, led by SBiH President Haris Silajdzic and Mostar Mufti Seid Smajkic, politicized the investigation into the cause of the fire by making unfounded allegations of arson and terrorism. The official investigation, conducted by RS police based in Trebinje and monitored by the European Union Police Mission (EUPM), concluded that faulty electrical wiring caused the fire. Islamic Community leaders, however, made clear early on they would be unlikely to accept any conclusion to the investigation other than arson, and hired an independent investigator which eventually reached a conclusion of arson. We assess that the Trebinje-based RS police investigator's conclusion of electrical wiring problems is more sound than that of the Islamic Community's expert. This unfortunate incident is testament to how quickly in the current political environment the facts of a case become less important than the allegations and perceptions surrounding it. End Summary. Mosque Burns Down on Eid al-Adha -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On December 7 (the eve of Eid al-Adha, or Kurban Bayram),a fire destroyed the 200 year-old mosque in Fazlagica Kula, a village in Gacko municipality in Eastern Republika Srpska. The mosque, located in the small village of predominantly Bosniak (Muslim) returnees, had previously been targeted by arsonists in 2000, and was subsequently reconstructed. Media reported immediately responsive action by RS police and prosecutors, who promised a thorough and speedy investigation. RS Prime Minister Dodik and President Kuzmanovic both expressed their regrets on December 8, promising assistance for reconstruction of the mosque. On December 9, the European Union Police Mission (EUPM) issued a press announcement that they were monitoring the investigation and urged the public to refrain from speculation. And then things started slipping downhill. Arson or Bad Wiring? -------------- ¶3. (C) On December 8, Mufti of Mostar Seid Smajkic alleged 
arson, calling the incident "a terrorist attack," though he offered no evidence for this conclusion. On December 10, Trebinje-based RS police announced to Dnevni List that investigative work had been completed and all evidence had been collected for analysis. That same day, unnamed sources were quoted in EuroBlic (a Belgrade-based daily) saying the investigation had determined that the fire was caused by poor and un-insulated electrical wiring done during reconstruction in 2000. This premature press leak only fueled suspicions within the Islamic Community (stoked predominantly by Smajkic) that the result had been pre-determined in an attempt to cover up arson. On December 15, Dnevni Avaz alleged, without providing a source, that traces of gasoline had been found on the burned mosque, which RS investigators denied. ¶4. (C) At this point, Trebinje Imam Husein Hodzic (who has direct oversight of the mosque) joined the fray, saying that media rumors of electrical wiring problems from the outset did not "smell good." Also on December 15, RS Minister of the Interior Stanislav Cadjo made an ill-advised statement that, while he regretted the incident, he could not "condemn" the fire, since the cause had not yet been determined. This, of course, played horribly with Bosniak politicians and the BiH Islamic Community. Finally, on December 21, Sekula Micic, the investigator employed by the local RS police, announced his conclusion that faulty electrical wiring had caused the fire. Whose Expert is the Real Expert? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Reacting to the announcement, Imam Hodzic vowed to conduct an independent inquiry, and made the surprise announcement that the Islamic Community had already employed an expert investigator to do so. On December 22, local media covered the report by the unnamed "independent expert" which SARAJEVO 00000002 002 OF 003 concluded that the fire was intentional, had been set in two places in the mosque using an accelerant, and was likely "professional." That same day, the Islamic Community posted the expert's report on its web site, providing his name, Narcis Mulabdic, and qualifications as a Sarajevo Court expert for fires and electrical energy. On December 25, the Trebinje Prosecutor's Office publicly refuted claims by the Islamic Community that the RS police investigation had been "superficial and sloppy." The same day, the Trebinje RS police spokesman criticized the Islamic Community for "sending signals to Bosniak returnees that they will not be safe, when security in the area is good." ¶6. (SBU) Also on December 25, Slobodna Bosna (a Sarajevo-based weekly) reported that Mulabdic, the "independent expert" employed by the Islamic Community, was in fact father-in-law to Reis Mustafa Ceric's eldest daughter. (Note: The Reis is the head of Bosnia's Islamic Community. End Note.) In the same article, Micic noted that he doubted Mulabdic could make an informed conclusion about the cause of the fire, since the electrical lines which Micic determined were the culprit had been removed from the mosque and were being held in police custody as evidence at a location Mulabdic had not visited. Micic, however, also became a target for criticism. On December 27, a spokesman for the "RS Association of Court Experts" in Banja Luka derided the professional capabilities of the expert, saying "Micic is a man who does not even know how to turn on a computer, and presents himself as an expert on a complex issue." Silajdzic Turns of the Heat -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Early on, Bosniak member of the Tri-Presidency and President of the Party for BiH (SBiH) Haris Silajdzic began making hay. On December 9, Silajdzic called for the perpetrators to be caught and punished, saying "...the mosque burning on the eve (of Bayram) represents a direct attack on returns and undoubtedly warns returnees that they are not welcome." Silajdzic's presumption of arson, and allusion of indirect culpability by leaders "who try to legalize the politics of those who were destroying religious objects" added to the tensions surrounding the event. When the Micic report was made public, with its conclusion of wiring problems, PDP President Mladen Ivanic and President of the Serb Caucus in the RS Council of Peoples Stasa Kosarac both claimed vindication against Silajdzic's allegations, and called on him to apologize. Interestingly, SBiH Vice President Beriz Belkic was quoted as saying he "respected the conclusions of the competent institutions, which found that the fire in Fazlagica Kula mosque was not set intentionally." Official Analysis More Professional -------------- ¶8. (C) Notwithstanding RS experts' criticism of Micic's abilities, our assessment is that his analysis (and conclusion of electrical wiring as the cause of the fire) was by far the more convincing and professionally-conducted. (Note: the Legal Attache's Office has reviewed both investigator's reports. End Note.) Micic began his investigation within 24 hours of the fire. He noted in his report that, per Bayram/Eid tradition, lights in the mosque were kept on all night, including 96 bulbs circling the minaret, and electrical wiring was wrapped around wooden rafters. Lab tests for accelerants in the mosque were negative. Window glass was found to have melted on the window frame, and shards were not found inside the mosque (which would have indicated a break-in). With a five-meter distance between floor and ceiling, Micic assessed it very unlikely that flames could have reached the mosque's roof, which was destroyed, had the fire begun on the floor. Rather, he reported that burning rafters likely led to the roof's collapse, at which point the carpeted floor ignited. ¶9. (C) In contrast, the Mulabdic report was largely framed as a rebuttal to Micic's conclusions. Mulabdic claimed the fire began on the floor in two locations, and spread from the floor to the ceiling. Mulabdic's report involved no lab work, and no testing for accelerants. Rather, his conclusion was based on visual observations of the fire's speed and intensity, and began several days later than Micic's investigation. Contrary to Micic, Mulabdic claimed to have SARAJEVO 00000002 003 OF 003 found broken glass inside the mosque, indicating intentional breaking of windows. (The RS report said the glass had melted, consistent with the manner the fire reportedly spread.) Finally, as was noted publicly, Mulabdic did not have access to the electrical wires being held as evidence. EUPM Monitors but Says Little -------------- ¶10. (C) Though EUPM announced on December 9 that it would monitor the investigation, it refrained from making any public comment about it despite the accusations and counter-accusations swirling around its conduct until fairly late. Only on December 23 did EUPM state that it "had monitored the Trebinje Center for Public Security's investigation (by Micic),which had the full support of competent authorities." EUPM also noted that it had no information about the investigation conducted by Mulabdic, but invited him to submit his report to the competent authorities for consideration. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) The pattern in the Fazlagica Kula mosque case is a sadly familiar one: an unfortunate event devolves into an ethnic political football. The facts of the case quickly become less important than the allegations and perceptions that surround it. EUPM's flat-footed response to attacks on the credibility of an investigation they monitored represents a lost opportunity to head off the politicization of the issue by unscrupulous political and religious leaders and to build confidence out of an unfortunate incident. Silajdzic's and Smajkic's early politicization of the issue virtually ensured an outcome which would be detrimental to inter-ethnic harmony and returnee confidence. Sadly, the facts of the case now matter little when weighed against the Bosniak perception of cover-up by RS authorities. RS MUP could have done much to strengthen its credibility by inviting SIPA or the Federation MUP to observe, but claimed they did not do so, not wanting to appear to "need" outside help or oversight. However, in Bosnia's climate of ethnic mistrust, this excuse rings hollow. ENGLISH