BOSNIA: POWER TO THE PEOPLE OF BRCKO (OR NOT)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001430 NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019 TAGS: ENRG ECON PREL ETRD BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: POWER TO THE PEOPLE OF BRCKO (OR NOT) REF: SARAJEVO 1183 Classified By: DCM JONATHAN M. MOORE FOR REASONS 1.4 b Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On September 18 High Representative Inzko mandated that each entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) supply 50 percent of Brcko's electricity needs as of January 1, 2010. The decision was an effort to ensure Brcko's electricity security as a necessary condition to end OHR's Supervisory role in Brcko. Ideally, market forces would guide the process; however, the RS has been the sole supplier of electricity to Brcko, a politically advantageous move for the RS and an economical one for Brcko, as RS electricity is cheaper than the Federation,s. Unfortunately, the arrangement is subject to the whims of the RS political leadership. Some observers have voiced frustration that the Office of the High Representative stepped into the fray. Whether the lights in Brcko are on after New Year's or not, further RS actions may result in stronger actions by the High Representative. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Brcko was unintentionally excluded when the State Electricity Transmission Company (Transco) and Independent System Operator (ISO) were set up in 2004. Ever since, the supply of electricity for Brcko District has been in legal limbo, despite years of efforts by successive Brcko Supervisors to negotiate a solution. Although Brcko has published international tenders for electricity for the past two years, Republika Srpska energy provider Elektroprivreda RS (EPRS) has been the only bidder. The Federation has never participated, because it prefers to export electricity regionally at higher rates. Even at the Federation's domestic subsidized rates, RS subsidies make the electricity sold to its citizens cheaper. ¶3. (C) The RS decision to supply Brcko and thereby have less electricity surplus available for export (at higher rates) is purely a political one, outside any legal framework, providing the RS with control over Brcko's energy market. However, some observers argue that from a purely economic perspective, the High Rep's mandate puts both entities at a disadvantage: the Federation, which is now forced to sell some electricity to Brcko at subsidized domestic rates; and the RS loses some control over Brcko's electricity market. In discussion with emboffs, Brcko officials have sought support to continue to purchase electricity solely from the RS. In November, Dodik told Dragan Pajic (SNSD),the mayor of Brcko, that he would only supply electricity to Brcko as long as SNSD was in charge. So the supply of electricity at current rates from the RS heretofore has been dependent on the goodwill of the RS Prime Minister. ¶4. (U) Being outside the legal framework, Brcko District is not licensed to purchase electricity from either internal or external suppliers, and has had no legal mechanism for setting tariffs. Previous studies showed it was impractical to have a regulatory commission just for Brcko, but as the Brcko Final Award makes clear that neither entity can exercise any authority over Brcko District, OHR determined that the State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC) was a logical regulator. Although international experts concluded that the best economic solution would be to purchase electricity from EPRS and have the RS regulator license and regulate Brcko electricity, this solution could be in violation of the Final Award and politically impractical. Thus, OHR chose to oblige SERC to license Brcko and set the tariffs for supplies coming from the entity-based electricity providers (elektroprivedas) on a 50/50 basis. ¶5. (U) The Peace Implementation Council Steering Board agreed to authorize the High Representative to impose solutions on electricity and other issues (reftel) related to Brcko after September 15 if the entities and state failed to enact the necessary legislation by that time. The High Rep,s decision related to electricity had two main features. First, it made SERC the regulator for Brcko. Second, it required the entities to provide electricity to Brcko on a 50/50 basis as a default arrangement, unless the entities had agreed to some other ratio for supply in the following year by November 2009. The current Chairman of the SERC Vladimir Dokic, who was appointed by the RS, blocked consensus in the SERC for application of the HR,s decision, thereby preventing issuance of license for Brcko,s utility company (PUK) and establishment of tariffs. In a November letter to OHR, he cited the RSNA,s decisions preventing implementation of any HR decision as the basis for his position, despite the SARAJEVO 00001430 002 OF 002 fact the HR,s decisions are valid and in force at the state level. Subsequent meetings with OHR failed to persuade Mr. Dokic that his position was legally unsustainable and anti-constitutional. ¶6. (U) RS officials approached Brcko Mayor Pajic and have offered to conclude another extra-legal MOU with Brcko, demanding that they accept a contract for 100% of its electricity needs, and that it was 100% or nothing. Further, the contract provides no indications of costs, citing only previous MoUs and reserves the right to change the costs at any point in 2010, with the ability to cancel the contract if Brcko takes less than 90% of the contracted amount. In other words, they could cease supplying electricity whenever the RS wants and if Brcko concludes a contract with the Federation's main electricity provider Elektroprivreda BiH (EPBiH). The Supervisor told the mayor that he could accept a contract from EPRS for 50% of its needed supply. Meanwhile, EPBiH indicated it could, if necessary, provide up to 100% of Brcko,s electricity needs. It would come at the higher rate set by the Federation Electricity Regulatory Commission (FERC),but would be legal and transparent. ¶7. (SBU) In order to ensure a reliable and continuous supply of electricity to Brcko from midnight on December 31, the Supervisor has urged the Brcko PUK to conclude a contract with EPBiH for 50% plus an option to purchase up to an additional 50%, with a request to provide 100% for the month of January. Electricity rates for end-users will go up, perhaps substantially, but EPBiH has agreed to charge one price for the whole year, rather than start with higher winter rates as of January 1, 2010. The bills for January come due in February, giving the OHR and the Brcko Supervisor time to arrange funding for mitigating the price increases and for the RS to possibly agree to supply 50% of Brcko,s electricity needs. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) OHR's decision was an effort to ensure Brcko's electricity security as a necessary condition to end OHR's supervisory role in Brcko, and was also motivated by concerns that unstable and capricious political leadership in the Republika Srpska (RS) would use energy supplies as blackmail. There is also a possibility for political consequences: in the absence of a legal energy supply agreement, the Brcko Supervisor has been warning since September that he may declare the RS as being in &serious non-compliance8 with the Final Award and seek relief from the Arbitral Tribunal. The wild card is Brcko Mayor Pahic ) in order to ensure cheaper electricity to Brcko, he may approve an agreement with RS officials in defiance of the HighRep,s decision. The final result will either be Brcko administrators acting in contravention of OHR in order to secure RS "cheap" electricity or consumers forced to pay higher electricity prices for &secure8 supply. ENGLISH