BOSNIA:HIGHREP IMPOSES NEW RULES FOR MOSTAR MAYOR

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SUBJECT: BOSNIA:HIGHREP IMPOSES NEW RULES FOR MOSTAR MAYOR
ELECTION

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Summary
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1. (SBU) On December 14 High Representative Valentin Inzko
imposed a decision which changes voting procedures in Mostar
aimed at breaking a political deadlock that has prevented the
election of a mayor for the past 14 months. The city
council plans to hold a session on December 18 where a mayor
may be elected. However, even that happens, the new mayor
could be forced to govern without the support of a majority
of the city councilors, which would complicate governance and
agreement on budgeting. End Summary.

The Arithmetic of the Mostar Mayor Election
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2. (U) The Mostar mayor is elected indirectly by city
councilors, who have been unable to choose a mayor since the
councilors were elected in 2008. Before the HighRep's
recent decision, there was a requirement that an absolute
majority (18) of the councilors vote for a candidate before
he/she could be elected. Despite multiple rounds of voting,
over many months no candidate received the required 18 votes.
The Council is divided into three political blocs: a Bosniak
group (14 members) which supports the candidate from the
Party for Democratic Action (SDA) Suad Hasandedic; a Croat
group (14 members) which supports the candidate from the
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH) Ljubo Beslic; and seven
councilors from parties not based on an ethnic principle
(Social Democratic Party-SDP--and Party for Prosperity-NSRzB)
who traditionally have abstained in the voting. Continued
abstentions by this group prevented election of the mayor.


The High Rep's Decision
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3. (U) The HighRep engaged with Mostar politicians for many
months to try to break this deadlock. In October he imposed
a requirement for secret balloting in the hopes that this
would free up councilors from the commands of party bosses
and make it possible for one candidate to receive the 18
votes necessary. However, the councilors reportedly were
ordered to put telltale marks on their "secret" ballots to
identify who had voted for which candidate and failed to
elect a mayor. The HighRep's recent decision will allow a
simple majority of the councilors to elect a mayor. The
decision also requires that a quorum of at least 18
councilors participate in the election, and requires that a
budget be passed within three days of the election of the
mayor. Otherwise the newly-elected mayor can impose a
budget. The decision requires that all parties attend the
session in which the mayor is elected, but it is not clear
what sanctions would be imposed if parties boycotted a
session so that the requisite quorum still might not be
achieved. Before utilizing the new rules imposed by the High
Representative, the council will have two rounds of voting
which require that a candidate receive support from 24 (two
thirds) of the 35 councilors. The city council plans to hold
a session on December 18 where a mayor may be elected.


4. (SBU) Many observers expect that an election under the
HighRep's new rules will result in the election of a Bosniak
candidate. In the event of a "tie," under Mostar's peculiar
rules, the youngest candidate (the Croat) would be elected.
However, many of the members of the political bloc which had
previously abstained are Bosniaks, and some of them are
expected to vote for SDA candidate giving him a simple
majority and the mayoralty.

Reactions of Politicians
--------------


5. (SBU) Local Croat politicians have reacted critically,
and even furiously, to the HighRep's decision. The HDZ-BiH
called the High Rep's decision "utterly hypocritical,
irresponsible and unserious," because, they said, the HighRep
had given previous assurances that he would not change the
rules in the middle of the game. The HDZ-BiH called for the
immediate removal of the HighRep, saying that the Office of
the High Representative (OHR) only served the interests of
the Bosniaks. HDZ-1990, which broke away from HDZ-BiH in
2006, was less harsh in its denunciation, but still
criticized the decision. Their statement said the election
could lead to the election of a mayor but that it was "not
the solution" for Mostar. Most Croats favor the direct

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election of a mayor by all Mostar residents, because they
(and other observers) believe that Croats now comprise a
majority of the city's residents.


6. (SBU) Despite the harsh rhetoric of HDZ-BiH, City Council
President Denis Lasic, an HDZ-BiH member, told us there were
no current plans to boycott the upcoming session of the city
council where the mayor might be elected. He added that his
party has been negotiating to attract the votes of councilors
from non-Croat parties.


7. (U) Bosniak reactions to the decision have been more
muted, presumably because they believe that the change in
rules will result in the election of a Bosniak Mayor. Mirsad
Huseinagic, the chairman of the Party for Bosnia and
Herzegovina (SBiH) branch in Mostar, said that the HighRep's
decision is a compromise in the interest of Mostar. Salem
Maric, a member of the SDA board in Mostar, said that nobody
gained by the decision and all candidates have an equal
chance of winning.

Comment
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8. (SBU) Although the possibility of a boycott of the
upcoming city council session cannot be ruled out, most
observers expect the HighRep's decision to result in the
election of a mayor in the upcoming days and weeks. Even if
a mayor is elected, without a majority on the city council it
will be difficult to implement policies or agree on budgets.
The decision will also further fuel sentiments in the Croat
community that OHR is a problem in Bosnia and should be
closed. The bottom line: despite the redoubled efforts by
the HighRep, Mostar is likely to remain both ungoverned and a
thorn in the side of Bosniak-Croat cooperation.


ENGLISH