BOSNIA:HIGHREP IMPOSES NEW RULES FOR MOSTAR MAYOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001382 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR DAS JONES AND EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA:HIGHREP IMPOSES NEW RULES FOR MOSTAR MAYOR ELECTION SARAJEVO 00001382 001.2 OF 002 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) On December 14 High Representative Valentin Inzko imposed a decision which changes voting procedures in Mostar aimed at breaking a political deadlock that has prevented the election of a mayor for the past 14 months. The city council plans to hold a session on December 18 where a mayor may be elected. However, even that happens, the new mayor could be forced to govern without the support of a majority of the city councilors, which would complicate governance and agreement on budgeting. End Summary. The Arithmetic of the Mostar Mayor Election -------------- ¶2. (U) The Mostar mayor is elected indirectly by city councilors, who have been unable to choose a mayor since the councilors were elected in 2008. Before the HighRep's recent decision, there was a requirement that an absolute majority (18) of the councilors vote for a candidate before he/she could be elected. Despite multiple rounds of voting, over many months no candidate received the required 18 votes. The Council is divided into three political blocs: a Bosniak group (14 members) which supports the candidate from the Party for Democratic Action (SDA) Suad Hasandedic; a Croat group (14 members) which supports the candidate from the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ-BiH) Ljubo Beslic; and seven councilors from parties not based on an ethnic principle (Social Democratic Party-SDP--and Party for Prosperity-NSRzB) who traditionally have abstained in the voting. Continued abstentions by this group prevented election of the mayor. The High Rep's Decision -------------- ¶3. (U) The HighRep engaged with Mostar politicians for many months to try to break this deadlock. In October he imposed a requirement for secret balloting in the hopes that this would free up councilors from the commands of party bosses and make it possible for one candidate to receive the 18 votes necessary. However, the councilors reportedly were ordered to put telltale marks on their "secret" ballots to identify who had voted for which candidate and failed to elect a mayor. The HighRep's recent decision will allow a simple majority of the councilors to elect a mayor. The decision also requires that a quorum of at least 18 councilors participate in the election, and requires that a budget be passed within three days of the election of the mayor. Otherwise the newly-elected mayor can impose a budget. The decision requires that all parties attend the session in which the mayor is elected, but it is not clear what sanctions would be imposed if parties boycotted a session so that the requisite quorum still might not be achieved. Before utilizing the new rules imposed by the High Representative, the council will have two rounds of voting which require that a candidate receive support from 24 (two thirds) of the 35 councilors. The city council plans to hold a session on December 18 where a mayor may be elected. ¶4. (SBU) Many observers expect that an election under the HighRep's new rules will result in the election of a Bosniak candidate. In the event of a "tie," under Mostar's peculiar rules, the youngest candidate (the Croat) would be elected. However, many of the members of the political bloc which had previously abstained are Bosniaks, and some of them are expected to vote for SDA candidate giving him a simple majority and the mayoralty. Reactions of Politicians -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Local Croat politicians have reacted critically, and even furiously, to the HighRep's decision. The HDZ-BiH called the High Rep's decision "utterly hypocritical, irresponsible and unserious," because, they said, the HighRep had given previous assurances that he would not change the rules in the middle of the game. The HDZ-BiH called for the immediate removal of the HighRep, saying that the Office of the High Representative (OHR) only served the interests of the Bosniaks. HDZ-1990, which broke away from HDZ-BiH in 2006, was less harsh in its denunciation, but still criticized the decision. Their statement said the election could lead to the election of a mayor but that it was "not the solution" for Mostar. Most Croats favor the direct SARAJEVO 00001382 002.2 OF 002 election of a mayor by all Mostar residents, because they (and other observers) believe that Croats now comprise a majority of the city's residents. ¶6. (SBU) Despite the harsh rhetoric of HDZ-BiH, City Council President Denis Lasic, an HDZ-BiH member, told us there were no current plans to boycott the upcoming session of the city council where the mayor might be elected. He added that his party has been negotiating to attract the votes of councilors from non-Croat parties. ¶7. (U) Bosniak reactions to the decision have been more muted, presumably because they believe that the change in rules will result in the election of a Bosniak Mayor. Mirsad Huseinagic, the chairman of the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) branch in Mostar, said that the HighRep's decision is a compromise in the interest of Mostar. Salem Maric, a member of the SDA board in Mostar, said that nobody gained by the decision and all candidates have an equal chance of winning. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although the possibility of a boycott of the upcoming city council session cannot be ruled out, most observers expect the HighRep's decision to result in the election of a mayor in the upcoming days and weeks. Even if a mayor is elected, without a majority on the city council it will be difficult to implement policies or agree on budgets. The decision will also further fuel sentiments in the Croat community that OHR is a problem in Bosnia and should be closed. The bottom line: despite the redoubled efforts by the HighRep, Mostar is likely to remain both ungoverned and a thorn in the side of Bosniak-Croat cooperation. ENGLISH