BOSNIA: REPUBLIKA SRPSKA RATCHETS UP REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 001368 SIPDIS EUR/SCE FOR HYLAND, FOOKS; NSC FOR HOVENIER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: REPUBLIKA SRPSKA RATCHETS UP REFERENDUM TALK REF: SARAJEVO 1312 Classified By: Ambassador Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Republika Srpska (RS) leaders are speaking increasingly openly about holding referenda on some of BiH's most sensitive issues. RS leaders -- particularly PM Milorad Dodik -- threaten almost daily to hold referenda on issues such as NATO accession and rule of law. Meanwhile, the opposition Serb Democratic Party (SDS) has proposed a draft law mandating a referendum on any constitutional change or BiH's accession to NATO. Although the smaller opposition parties are wary of any referendum initiative, Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and SDS have the support of a wide array of RS political figures and academics. There is widespread concern among political elites and the diplomatic community in Sarajevo, given that any referendum in the RS would act like a vote on the continued existence of BiH. End summary. Dodik Ups the Ante on Referendum -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In the most blatant reference to date to a referendum on RS separation from BiH, Dodik declared on December 10 that "BiH is a divided society with no legitimacy because its citizens have never had a chance to vote on the state." This comment followed a similar statement on November 27, when Dodik hailed himself as the first politician to mention the idea of a referendum in 2006. He told the RS public that a referendum "cannot be done overnight. Several prerequisites, such as establishing the legal right of citizens to declare RS independence, will be necessary." Dodik also reiterated longstanding accusations of the international community and Federation-based parties for making joint efforts to call the RS into question, noting that by doing so, they allow the RS to show that it can survive alone. Meanwhile, Dodik advisor Slavko Mitrovic published an op-ed in the Banja Luka-based daily Nezavisne Novine on December 10 declaring that "after years of the irresponsible imposition of laws and reform s by OHR and constant disputes among Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats, the frustrated international community could one day decide to accept the patronage of the peaceful dissolution of BiH. In this case, Serbs and Croats would realize their independence through the RS and Herzeg-Bosna, and Bosniaks would be forced to establish their own ethnic state." Dodik Threatens Referendum on Judges and Prosecutors -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Dodik's December 10 declaration followed several threats since the November 18-19 PIC to organize a referendum on whether to accept an imposition by the HighRep on the extension of the mandate of international judges and prosecutors (reftel). Dodik has declared repeatedly since the PIC that if the RS citizens did not vote in favor of the extension, the RS National Assembly (RSNA) would adopt a decision not to accept the legitimacy of the international judges and prosecutors in the RS. He stressed that the BiH Court, with the help of international judges and prosecutors, is trying to discipline the RS, as it serves only to prosecute politicians, primarily Serbs. Radmanovic Announces Possibility of Near-Term Referenda -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Dovetailing with Dodik's comments, Serb Tri-Presidency member Nebojsa Radmanovic announced on December 9 that the RS may hold two referenda in the near future, one on NATO membership and the other on whether to respect an imposition by the HighRep of the extension of the mandate of international judges and prosecutors. Radmanovic, in a departure from his generally moderate statements, also stated that due to NATO's decision not to offer BiH a Membership Action Plan, he is ready to prevent BiH's accession to NATO. RSNA to Consider Referendum Law -------------- SARAJEVO 00001368 002 OF 003 ¶5. (SBU) The agenda of the December 15 session of the RSNA includes a first reading of a draft Law on Referenda and Civic Initiatives, proposed by the Serb Democratic Party (SDS). According to draft law, referenda would be obligatory whenever the RSNA or the BiH Parliament amended the RS or BiH Constitution. A referendum would also be mandatory if the RSNA or the BiH Parliament decided "to enter into military organizations or alliances." The law would also permit, but not mandate, referenda on such issues as the legal competencies of the RSNA, the BiH Parliament, municipalities, and cities. Under the proposed draft law, the RS President, the Speaker of the RSNA, at least a quarter of RSNA Deputies, the RS Government, or a certain number of RS citizens could call for a referendum. A referendum must take place no less than 30 days and no more than one year from being called, according to the law. The RS Electoral Commission, local electoral commissions, and electoral committees would carry out the referendum, and a simple majority of citizens voting would allow it to pass. Radojicic on Legal Steps -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Igor Radojicic, RSNA Speaker and SNSD Vice President, told Euro Blic on December 7 that, if passed, this law would replace the current 1993 RS Law on Referenda. He stated that SNSD would assess the content of this law and, if it is "qualitatively better than the existing one," which he said needed a number of technical fixes, the party would support it. Radojicic emphasized that the RS has the right, in accordance with the RS Constitution, to organize a referendum on certain issues. He confirmed that the SNSD and SDS leadership recently held inter-party talks in which both sides expressed an interest in adopting an RS Law on Referenda. Opposition Expresses Concern -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Erstwhile SNSD coalition partner Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) and the SDS breakaway Democratic Party (DP) have registered some concerns with the prospect of a referendum, although they are unlikely to mount a successful opposition to the far more numerous and powerful SNSD and SDS. PDP leader Mladen Ivanic told the press on December 9 that "playing with the referendum concept is a bad idea." DP leader Dragan Cavic remarked the same day that the RS government is prepared to seek a referendum on NATO and judges and prosecutors but did not call a referendum on its own extravagant purchases, such as the government building that cost 200 million KM (about $142 million). RS Senate Encourages Referendum on NATO -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Underscoring the support this initiative is likely to receive from a wide array of political and academic figures, the RS Senate -- chaired by RS President Rajko Kuzmanovic, with Dodik in attendance -- met in Banja Luka on November 23 to lend support to the idea of a referendum and the issues on which it would be organized. (Note: The RS Senate is an advisory body and its opinions are not binding. The 42 Senators are high-level political figures from across the spectrum, as well as academics, historians and business-people; including three former RS Presidents. End Note.) According to media reports, the Senate concluded that there would be no basis for the continued existence of BiH "if the weakening of the Dayton Peace Agreement continues to the point of its abolishment." (Note: By "weakening of the Dayton Accords," the Senate is referring to changes to the Dayton Constitution as envisioned in the U.S.-EU reform process. End Note.) RS Senator Slobodan Perovic, an academic, told the press after the meeting that if the weakening of the DPA continues, then BiH would exist in a legal vacuum, and the country would have to turn to a higher authority, which, he claimed, is the UN. Perovic explained that in such a situation, BiH would have to turn to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which "reaffirms the right of self-determination." Kuzmanovic told us that the Senators decided that NATO integration is a process which will require "broad discussions," including asking the RS people about their opinion on this matter (i.e., a referendum). SARAJEVO 00001368 003 OF 003 Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Referenda in 1992 famously contributed to the beginning of the conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and referenda are still considered to be provocative steps on several levels. By proposing a referendum in the RS on whether to respect OHR decisions, Dodik is delivering his most blatant defiance to date of the authority and legitimacy of OHR. A referendum on NATO accession would be broadly interpreted as a slap at the Dayton Constitution, which defines foreign policy as a responsibility of the state of BiH. More ominously, given the strong preference among RS citizens for independence from BiH, any referendum that challenges the primacy of the state would be treated as a referendum on the existence of BiH. ENGLISH