BOSNIA - TIME TO SEIZE AN OPPORTUNITY ON BRCKO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SARAJEVO 000134 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR(JONES),EUR/SCE(FOOKS/STINCHCOMB); NSC FOR HELGERSON/WILSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA - TIME TO SEIZE AN OPPORTUNITY ON BRCKO REF: A. SARAJEVO 107 ¶B. SARAJEVO 70 ¶C. 07 SARAJEVO 1655 Classified By: Ambassador Charles English. Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 26, the three main party leaders met and agreed on a text for a constitutional amendment on Brcko District. The text is similar but not identical to the text proposed by the Brcko District Supervisor (with strong U.S. support). An OHR legal review has determined that several technical changes are required to it if it is to meet the conditions necessary for ending supervision. We have met with Republika Srpska (RS) Prime Minister Milorad Dodik twice over the last week to discuss some proposed modifications to the text. This effort was complicated by the Republika Srpska (RS) PM Milorad Dodik's decision to try and bypass OHR by asking his Washington-based lobbyist to secure the Chairman of the Brcko Arbitral Tribunal's endorsement to an uncorrected text. At this point, Dodik is insisting that the final text include language that provides a modicum of protection against ethnic outvoting. Though we understand that the Tribunal Chairman has concerns about this language, we believe that we have reached Dodik's bottom line. Provided Dodik accepts the other changes required by OHR, we recommend accepting it. Otherwise, we assess that we risk losing the prospect of an amendment altogether. Unless otherwise instructed, we plan to work with OHR over the next week to finalize a text with assuaging concerns on outvoting. END SUMMARY Dodik, Tihic, Covic Agree on Brcko Amendment -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On January 26, Milorad Dodik, Sulejman Tihic, and Dragan Covic publicly -- and in writing -- endorsed resolving outstanding issues associated with Brcko via a constitutional amendment (Ref A). They also endorsed the text of a three paragraph amendment. The first paragraph defines the Brcko District; the second provides the BiH Constitutional Court with jurisdiction over disputes between Brcko and the entities and between Brcko and the state. The third provides Brcko with direct access to the Constitutional Court by providing a mechanism for the Brcko District Assembly (simple majority vote) to bring disputes before the Constitutional Court. The language in these three paragraphs was based on, but not identical to the text initially drafted and proposed by the Supervisor (with the strong support of the USG). ¶3. (SBU) It remains unclear which of the three party leaders proposed the changes to the Supervisor-approved text. In any case, a detailed review of the January 26 text by OHR's Legal Department revealed several problems with some of the changes proposed by Dodik, Tihic, and Covic. OHR assessed that most of them could be addressed with technical fixes, however (e.g., The January 26 draft mentioned only the Final Award, but the amendment should reference all the decisions taken by the Tribunal in relation to Brcko, which could be done easily by referring to the "Awards of the Arbitration Tribunal.") With this in mind, OHR prepared line-in, line-out comments that it planned to share with Dodik and his principal Brcko negotiator, RSNA Speaker Igor Radojicic, in order to finalize language on the amendment. Dodik Lobbyists Try to End-Run Negotiation -------------- ¶4. (C) Unfortunately, rather than allow time for OHR to review and comment on the text, Dodik directed his Washington-based lobbyists to share it with the Chairman of the Tribunal and secure his agreement to it. In a subsequent conversation with the Supervisor, the Chairman noted many of the technical issues already identified by OHR, but also expressed concern about language in the third paragraph of the amendment requiring that a Brcko District Assembly vote to instigate a dispute before the Constitutional Court include "one-third of elected councilors belonging to each constituent people." This language had initially been proposed to address Serb concerns about outvoting on an issue as sensitive as bringing a dispute between Brcko and an entity or the state before the Constitutional Court. (Note: This language was endorsed by Tihic and Covic as well as Brcko District councilors from all three ethnic groups. It is worth noting that the Brcko District Statute already SARAJEVO 00000134 002 OF 003 contains language to prevent outvoting on certain issues. End Note) Working to Finalize a Text -------------- ¶5. (C) Working closely with OHR, we met with Dodik on January 28 and February 2 to review OHR's proposed technical changes and discuss how to address Serb concerns about outvoting within the Brcko District Assembly without referring to "at least one-third...of each constituent people." We stressed that we were close to finalizing a text and wanted to work cooperatively with Dodik to secure an agreement, so that the amendment could be adopted before the March Peace Implementation Council (PIC) meeting. OHR also shared with Radojicic its line-in, line-out comments on the text of the amendment as well as brief legal explanations for their proposed technical changes. OHR also suggested that, in return for dropping reference to constituent peoples in the third paragraph of the amendment, it was prepared to raise the threshold for the Brcko District Assembly to initiate a dispute before the Constitutional Court from a simple majority to a three-fifths majority. Dodik Insists on Constituent Peoples Language -------------- ¶6. (C) Dodik complained to us about how the international community (IC) was "never satisfied and constantly wanted more from the RS." He noted that he, Tihic and Covic had agreed on a constitutional amendment for Brcko that was very similar to the Supervisor's proposed text, but that this still was not enough for the IC. Regardless, he told us that he was prepared to accept all of OHR's proposed changes to the first and second paragraphs of the amendment except for one, for which he required additional explanation from OHR. He said that his main area of concern was paragraph three. Dodik insisted that there must be an explicit requirement that at least some Brcko District Assembly members from all three of the constituent peoples participate in a decision to raise a dispute with the Constitutional Court. He suggested that this could be as low as "at least one-fifth of the councilors representing each of the constituent peoples," however. RSNA Special Session on Brcko -------------- ¶7. (C) Undoubtedly in an effort to put pressure on OHR and the international community, Dodik and Radojicic scheduled a special session of the RSNA on Brcko for February 9. As we understand it, the two men want the RSNA to endorse the text of a Brcko amendment. We have urged Dodik to wait until the text is final before presenting it to the RSNA, reminding him that all sides would be in a difficult negotiating position if the RSNA expressed support for the current version of the amendment, which did not meet the conditions for the closure of supervision. We also noted that it would be difficult to finalize the text before next Monday given that Radojicic was in Washington this week. Dodik responded that he is the one who will make the final decision on this issue, implying that Radojicic's absence should not slow this process. Comment: A Deal is in Our Interests -------------- ¶8. (C) Our intensive diplomacy since the November PIC has produced progress on Brcko that few within the international community thought possible. Dodik has now endorsed an amendment that ensures Brcko is specifically mentioned in the constitution and defined by the Tribunal's awards, and that gives the District direct access to the BiH Constitutional Court. We have a small window of opportunity to finalize a text this week provided we are prepared to accept Dodik's requirement that the amendment contain a modicum of protection against ethnic outvoting. We understand concerns about doing so, but we believe that we have hit Dodik's bottom-line, and that to reject it would be to lose the prospects for an amendment altogether. We note that Dodik has lowered his demands to one-fifth vice one-third, that concerns about outvoting are shared by Bosniaks and Croats, which is one reason why Tihic and Covic support the provision, and that such protections already exist within the Brcko District Assembly. In our judgment, "the one-fifth SARAJEVO 00000134 003 OF 003 provision" is consistent with the principle of multiethnic decision-making, which has been a hallmark of Brcko for many years now. In addition, establishing a ceiling of "one-fifth" in the Brcko case could offer a precedent by which ethnic protection could be lowered in state-level decision-making. This could be useful in negotiating constitutional reforms. With all this in mind, we plan to work with the Supervisor and OHR to finalize a text in the coming week with the "one-fifth provision" unless otherwise instructed. ENGLISH