BOSNIA: AMBASSADOR AND EU REPS DELIVER INVITATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001157 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR DAS JONES AND EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: AMBASSADOR AND EU REPS DELIVER INVITATIONS TO OCTOBER 8-9 DISCUSSIONS Classified By: Ambassador Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Ambassador and representatives of the EU delivered invitations to eight party leaders October 2 to participate in discussions on October 8-9 in Sarajevo led by Deputy Secretary Steinberg and Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt. All eight leaders said they will participate. Bosniak reactions were mixed, with Presidency member Silajdzic and Social Democrat Lagumdzija raising the largest objections. Croat leaders generally welcomed the talks. Bosnian Serbs, including Prime Minister Dodik, raised no objections to taking part. End Summary. Background on Invitations -------------- ¶2. (C) The USG and EU initiative is a response to the deteriorating political situation in Bosnia. The dialogue among the parties on satisfying the outstanding conditions for closing the Office of the High Representative (OHR) has broken down. Washington and Brussels agree that rapid, intense, and political level international intervention is essential to break the political deadlock and prevent a further downward spiral as election campaigning starts. The letter the Ambassador and EU representatives delivered on behalf of Deputy Secretary Steinberg and Swedish Foreign Minister Bildt to party leaders noted that the political stalemate is causing Bosnia and Herzegovina to fall behind the rest of the region in the Euro-Atlantic integration process. It stressed that the decisions necessary to break the deadlock must be made by local leaders, but noted that the U.S. and the EU have a strong interest in achieving success and are willing to assist the effort. Bosniak Leaders -------------- ¶3. (C) Party of Democratic Action (SDA) President Sulejman Tihic welcomed the initiative, declaring that this is the "last chance" for the EU and the U.S. to work together to stave off a crisis which could lead to violent conflict within the next twelve months. Tihic said he is always willing to compromise, but cautioned that the recent behavior of Republika Srpska Prime Minister (RS PM) Milorad Dodik is radicalizing both ethnic Serbs and Bosniaks. Tihic said the 2006 April package met 80 percent of his demands, and that he is quite aware that an ideal solution is not achievable at this time. He said that journalists had contacted him and suggested that the deal being worked on would hurt Bosniak interests. He said the international community should work with the local media to counteract the tendency to label those who seek compromise as "traitors." ¶4. (C) Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) President Haris Silajdzic gave the invitation a cool reception, but confirmed his attendance after initially blustering that he would send party colleague and Refugee Minister Safet Halilovic instead. He repeated his standard litany of complaints about how the Dayton Peace Accords are not being implemented, especially with respect to promoting refugee returns. Silajdzic said the negotiations on October 8-9 would be aimed at confirming the sovereignty of BiH and the existence of two entities, but argued that this is not what Bosniaks want, and that they would not accept "insults." He told EU Council Secretariat Balkans Director Zoltan Martinusz that the EU must cease its effort to direct "balanced" criticisms at both Silajdzic and Dodik, when in fact Dodik is the fundamental problem in Bosnia. ¶5. (C) Social Democratic Party (SDP) President Zlatko Lagumdzija was defensive and frustrated throughout his meeting with the Ambassador and EU representatives; he did not confirm his attendance until the following day, after consultation with his party's governing board. At the meeting he said he has consistently said that he will not accept anything less than the 2006 April Package. Consequently, he could not understand why the EU and U.S. are calling on him to participate in talks when they will present something less extensive than the April package. Lagumdzija said the constitutional reform package should address the competencies issue as well as entity voting, and added that he did not want to see a further division of the country, such as the creation of a third Croat-dominated entity. He said that the EU and U.S. might not be happy they invited him SARAJEVO 00001157 002 OF 002 to the discussions, because if he does not like what he sees in a package he will encourage other politicians to reject it. Croat Leaders -------------- ¶6. (C) Croat leaders welcomed the initiative and said they would attend the discussions. Croat Democratic Alliance (HDZ-BiH) President Dragan Covic said it would be best if Steinberg and Bildt brought a concrete plan to the talks. Covic said that he believes a compromise might be worked out on the "5 plus 2" conditions for closing the Office of the High Representative (OHR),but he is skeptical that a compromise could be achieved on constitutional reform. HDZ-1990 President Bozo Ljubic also welcomed the U.S.-EU initiative, stressing that he would be looking for ways to improve the position of Croats by changing laws in both entities and decision-making procedures in the Parliamentary Assembly. He said he would like to see a change in Bosnia's territorial organization, but acknowledged that this is probably unrealistic. Serb Leaders -------------- ¶7. (C) Visibly tired and withdrawn, Alliance of Independent Democrats (SNSD) President Milorad Dodik said he would have "no problem" participating in the event, adding that he has never refused an opportunity to talk. Dodik struck conciliatory notes, saying that he supports NATO accession for BiH and that RS leaders have been working toward reaching agreement on the "5 plus 2" conditions for closing OHR. He said his party would support removing the current "discriminatory" method of electing the BiH presidency, but it would not accept changes to entity voting procedures. When asked to tone down his rhetoric by the Ambassador and Swedish Deputy Political Director Lars Wahlund, Dodik said he will simply announce that he intends to attend the meeting and he hopes to participate in a discussion that occurs "without pressure." ¶8. (C) People's Democratic Party (PDP) Vice President Branislav Borenovic received the invitation for party President Mladen Ivanic, who is recuperating from a heart attack. Borenovic was enthusiastic about the October 8-9 discussions, saying that the PDP is "always ready to talk." He said party leaders can probably agree on some "easy" reforms of the Constitution, but argued that consensus is unlikely on a more substantial package. He was more optimistic that agreement could be reached on the "5 plus 2" issues. Democratic Party (DP) President Dragan Cavic said that he would attend the meeting. He said that his party is seeking a solution in which the BiH State and the entities can accommodate each other so that separation can be avoided and all levels of government can function well. He criticized the escalating rhetoric of RS PM Dodik. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The fact that all eight leaders have agreed to come to Butmir is a positive sign of their recognition of the importance of taking part. Their willingness to work to find compromise at the table and afterward is of course not guaranteed. ENGLISH