BOSNIA: MEDIA MOGUL RADONCIC ESTABLISHES POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001139 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR DAS JONES AND EUR/SCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV BK SUBJECT: BOSNIA: MEDIA MOGUL RADONCIC ESTABLISHES POLITICAL PARTY Classified By: DCM Jonathan Moore for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Fahrudin Radoncic, owner of Sarajevo-based daily Dnevni Avaz, announced September 24 his intention to form a new political party. Radoncic counts on winning over the membership and electorate of the two largest Bosniak parties, and enjoys support from the influential head of Islamic community. Allegedly, the party's top priorities will be economic development as well as NATO and EU accession. However, Radoncic -- himself under investigation -- also vowed to fight corruption, organized crime and Bosniak "isolation and self-isolation." The powerful media instruments under Radoncic's control make his party potentially a force to be reckoned with in the next year's general elections. However, Radoncic's close ties to the heavily politicized Islamic community, the tendency of his newspaper to pursue demagogic populism, and his own alleged ties to criminal activity make it unlikely that his party will be a constructive force in Bosnian politics. End summary. A New Party -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At a September 24 press conference, Radoncic said that his party will focus on fighting corruption and crime, and on developing the Bosnian economy. He made a reference to Silvio Berlusconi, who Radoncic seems to view as a role model, commenting that Italy had been plagued by unstable governments until Berlusconi entered the government and turned the situation around. Radoncic also made an appeal to Bosniak nationalism, saying that those who attacked the legacy of Bosniak wartime leader Alija Izetbegovic will not be tolerated. ¶3. (SBU) Radoncic had previewed his new party's platform in recent media interviews. In an article in "Global", a political magazine he owns, Radoncic lamented "Islamophobia" in BiH as well as Bosnia's corrupt and inept political elites. He also stressed that his background as a successful businessman would allow him to create a business-oriented government that could bring investment, jobs and prosperity to Bosnia. He said that he would offer a four-year contract to the Bosnian people to take the country out of crisis and the Bosniaks out of "colonial status." He argued that a deeply anti-Bosniak political-mafia structure existed in Bosnia that wants to stir confusion in the society and disrupt the system of values. Support from the Religious Community -------------- ¶4. (C) Radoncic has many enemies in the political world who both fear and hate him. However, Radoncic carefully built a solid alliance with the head of Islamic community, Reisu-l-ulema Mustafa Ceric, who is also business-oriented and eager to exert political influence. Radoncic is not a practicing Muslim, but he uses support from the Islamic community to portray himself as an arch-protector of Muslims in BiH. Reis Ceric, in a recent address to the faithful on the occasion of the end of Ramadan, said that Bosniaks need a leader who does not have to be pious, but must be competent and decisive, hinting at support for Radoncic. (Note: Radoncic, for his part, has ensured that the Reis gets consistently positive coverage in his publications. End note.) Raiding SBiH and SDA -------------- ¶5. (C) Radoncic's new party will be built with the help of several active political figures, including Munib Jusufovic (a defector from SBiH earlier this year). Jusufovic outlined Radoncic's plans for us September 18. Jusufovic told us that the new party will be highly pragmatic, and will not seek confrontations with Republika Srpska. He said that it is clear that the SDA, with its internal problems and struggles between President Sulejman Tihic and parliamentarian Bakir Izetbegovic, will not be able to deal with serious challenges Bosnia and Herzegovina will face in the near future. Jusufovic described the SBiH under Haris Silajdzic as all but "destroyed," and argued that Radoncic is the only Bosniak leader strong enough to deal SARAJEVO 00001139 002 OF 002 with the upcoming challenges. ¶6. (C) Jusufovic confirmed that Radoncic has a good relationship with Reis Ceric, but added that the arrangement is based on convenience. He noted that the new party will invite some already seasoned and established politicians from other parties, primarily SDA and SBiH. Reports in the Bosnian media have mentioned that the list of names may include former and present SDA figures including Adnan Terzic, Mirsad Kebo, Salko Obhodjas and such SBiH officials as Gavrilo Grahovac. Jusufovic also said that Radoncic will work closely with union leaders, seeing them as powerful allies ahead of a season of mass strikes and protests. Comment -------------- ¶7. The creation of a new party aimed at fighting corruption and organized crime -- by a media mogul who is widely alleged to be heavily involved with both -- is unlikely to have a positive impact on Bosnian politics. Having seen Radoncic direct his media outlets against us on occasion, as well as against others including the respected head of the financial police (in an effort to slow down a pending criminal case against him),we are understandably skeptical that Radoncic's party will be a consistent force for good. The best that could be hoped from the party is that a focus on pragmatic issues like promoting economic development and investment would predominate over attempts to make strong Bosniak nationalist appeals. However, the tendency of his newspaper to pursue demagogic populism, and his many alleged ties to corruption and organized crime, make it more likely that his party -- one that has a good chance of obtaining votes in the 2010 elections -- will be yet another destructive force in Bosnian politics. ENGLISH