BOSNIA: SERB TRI-PRESIDENCY MEMBER CALLS NATO GOAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SARAJEVO 001138

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR DAS JONES AND EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV NATO BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: SERB TRI-PRESIDENCY MEMBER CALLS NATO GOAL
INTO QUESTION

Classified By: DCM Jonathan Moore for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Bosnian Serb Tri-Presidency member Nebojsa
Radmanovic, who has thus far supported Bosnia's NATO
aspirations, has begun to publicly support calls for further
discussions on NATO membership because of "declining support"
for NATO in Republika Srpska (RS). He has also indicated
that he might support a referendum on this issue in the RS.
In the past, Radmanovic has generally stressed that Bosnia's
aspirations to NATO membership had been settled by previous
decisions of political leaders, including a nearly unanimous
parliamentary decision supporting NATO membership. In
addition, Radmanovic supported a recent Presidency decision
to apply for a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) on October

2. However, in line with an increasingly combative stand of
RS Prime Minister Milorad Dodik toward the international
community, Radmanovic appears to have begun to backtrack on
the NATO issue, presumably under pressure from Dodik.

A Call for "Further Discussions"
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2. (C) Radmanovic called a meeting September 28 of
representatives from largely Serb parties, including his own
Alliance of Independent Democrats (SNSD),Serb Democratic
Party (SDS),People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Democratic
People's Alliance. At that meeting, Radmanovic made a number
of comments to the press that raised questions about Bosnia's
NATO ambitions in light of what he called declining support
for NATO in the RS. He said that the RS National Assembly
should "organize a discussion one more time, since, in the
meantime, in the last four years since its positions were
taken regarding accession to NATO, many things have changed."
He added that "one cannot exclude the possibility of
citizens expressing their opinion"--a clear reference to the
possibility of a referendum on the issue.


3. (C) Radmanovic also rejected the possibility that NATO
requirements could be used as a basis for amending the
Bosnian constitution. He said that "If changes to the system
of decisionmaking in BiH are necessary for NATO membership,
then we in the RS are against it."

Comment
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4. (C) It is not clear whether Radmanovic's recent comments
reflect a genuine change in his point of view or whether he
is bowing to pressure from his political boss, SNSD president
Milorad Dodik. An advisor to Radmanovic told us today that
Radmanovic's recent comments will not interfere with the
delivery of a letter to NATO requesting a Membership Action
Plan for NATO, a letter that Radmanovic signed and that is
expected to be delivered in Brussels on October 2. Dodik
recently met with SDS President Mladen Bosic, and at the end
of that meeting agreed with the SDS leader that it might be
useful to submit the issue of NATO membership to a
referendum. Dodik had been more ambivalent about support for
NATO membership than Radmanovic, but had also shied away in
the past from calling for an entity referendum. While
Radmanovic's rejection of political reforms in connection
with NATO membership is problematic in itself, any referendum
would be seen not as a referendum on BiH's membership in
NATO, but rather on the inflammatory question of the RS
versus the state.
ENGLISH