BOSNIA: PRESIDENT KOMSIC TO SEEK HIGH LEVEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 001093

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV BA
SUBJECT: BOSNIA: PRESIDENT KOMSIC TO SEEK HIGH LEVEL
MEETINGS TO STRESS DETERIORATING SITUATION IN BOSNIA

Classified By: Amb. Charles English for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) THIS IS AN ACTION REQUEST. SEE PARAGRAPH 3.


2. (C) SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST. During a September 11
meeting, Croat member and current Chairman of Bosnia's
Presidency Zeljko Komsic informed the Ambassador that during
his mid-October trip to the United States (without the other
two members of the Presidency) he would seek high-level
meetings -- up to the President and Vice President -- to
alert them to what he views as an increasingly unstable
situation in Bosnia and to urge greater engagement of the
United States. He stressed that the actions of European
states do not give him confidence that the international
community will be able to stop the sharp negative trend in
Bosnia's political situation, and added that attempts at
constitutional reform without a large escalation in
engagement will ensure failure.


3. (C) ACTION REQUEST: Although the Ambassador tempered
Komsic's expectations of meetings with the President or Vice
President, given growing U.S.-EU interest in pursuing
constitutional reform we encourage Washington to receive
President Komsic at the highest possible level October 14-16.
END SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST.

Komsic: Stand-offs with RS Could Destroy State
-------------- -


4. (C) Komsic expressed alarm at recent political
developments in Bosnia and the concurrent drawdown of the
international presence. Republika Srpska (RS) politicians are
blocking Bosnia's progress on every front, he argued, and the
imminent drawdown of the international community means that
stand-offs between the RS and state institutions are likely
to destroy the capacity and credibility of Bosnia's state
institutions. As examples, he hypothesized that if High
Representative Valentin Inzko uses Bonn powers to extend the
mandate of the international personnel seconded to Bosnia's
courts and prosecutor's office, RS PM Milorad Dodik will
likely refuse to acknowledge their legal effect in the RS.
If the State Prosecutor indicts Dodik, Komsic speculated, no
one could effectively enforce it. Either event would more
likely destroy Bosnia's legal system than strengthen the rule
of law. Komsic stressed that these are but two examples of
possible incendiary stand-offs, but that RS politicians are
impeding progress on every front, even on seemingly routine
tasks -- like disposing of excess weapons and ammunition --
that Bosnia must accomplish to realize progress towards its
stated and supposedly common goal of NATO membership.

Komsic: Will the RS Question Bosnia's NATO Path?
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Komsic called particular attention to the
announcement after a recent meeting between Dodik and Serb
Democratic Party President (SDS) Mladen Bosic that the RS
should hold a referendum at the entity level on Bosnia's
future NATO membership. He speculated that this switch in
policy is either irresponsible populism or the subject of a
deal with Belgrade or perhaps even Moscow. He said it is
now even more critical for Bosnia to quickly submit its
request for a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) and to make
credible progress towards Bosnia's NATO ambitions. If the
trend of stirring opposition to NATO in the RS continues,
Komsic said, it may sooner or later escalate into serious
opposition to NATO from the RS and RS politicians. Once
Bosnia's NATO ambitions become a point of nationalist
contention, there will be no going back, he said. As
Bosnia's EU ambitions seem distant and unrealistic right now,
NATO is the only game in town, he added.

Komsic: Little Hope
--------------


6. (C) Komsic finished his bleak assessment of Bosnia's
politics by saying that the close relationship between
organized crime and politics left little room for change,
that his colleague (Bosnian-Serb) President Radmanovic was
also very worried, and that the prospect of constitutional
change -- as he understood current proposals -- was a
sure-fire way to bring absolute failure to Bosnia. Only a
massive escalation in engagement will create the possibility
of success for the efforts of the international community to
bring stability to Bosnia, Komsic said, and he hopes that he
can find an interlocutor in Washington at the level to take
such a decision. "The problem is very simple," Komsic added,
"The war has not ended, and the parties to that war are still

SARAJEVO 00001093 002 OF 002


using political mechanisms to further their war aims."
ENGLISH