B2 VISA VALIDATION STUDY GIVES POSITIVE RESULT

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000199

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR CA/VO/F/P AND CA/FPP
DEPARTMENT PASS TO KCC

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CVIS PREL KRFD KCRM SMIG BR

SUBJECT: B2 VISA VALIDATION STUDY GIVES POSITIVE RESULT

REF: 08 SAO PAULO 575


1. Summary: A recent study of 2,386 B2 non-immigrant visas (NIV)
issued at Consulate General Sao Paulo during July 2008 indicated
that, of those who have already traveled to the United States, only
two percent were overstays. The results demonstrate that the
current fraud prevention training for adjudicating officers is
sufficient to avoid visa issuance to mala-fide travelers, and did
not indicate any instance of organized fraud. End Summary.

Methodology


2. During the week of July 14, 2008, Consulate General Sao Paulo
processed 2,509 applications for B2 non-immigrant visas. The
approval rate on these applications was 95.1 percent. The Fraud
Prevention Unit (FPU) extracted data on applications from the
Consular Consolidated Database using the AdHoc Reporting Template.
The sample parameters were B2 visas issued during the week of July
14, 2008. Using these criteria, FPU pulled 2,386 issuances and
entered them in an Excel Spreadsheet. The 2,386 applications were
randomly sorted and 198 were selected using a sample interval of 12.
Based on the "Warsaw FPU Sample Size Calculator," a sample size of
198 would yield a standard error rate of less than three percent at
a 95 percent confidence level, using a five percent estimated fraud
rate.


3. FPU ran each of the 198 selected applications against the
Department of Homeland Security's Arrival-Departure Information
System to determine whether and/or when the individual had traveled
to the United States. Of the 198 issuances, 125 (63.1 percent) were
determined to have traveled and returned, 70 (35.4 percent) were
determined not to have traveled, and three (1.5 percent) were
indicated as having entered and not yet left the United States. Of
the three in the United States, one had traveled two months earlier
and was still under valid B2 status. FPU then conducted phone
checks on the two remaining individuals to examine whether there had
been fraud in the application such as to suggest they were unlikely
to return.

Results


4. Results of the phone checks indicated one of the individuals had
provided false employment and residence information. The other
applicant provided accurate information but misrepresented her
intentions. This second individual stated she was taking her
seven-year old daughter (who was granted a visa during the same
interview) on a ten-day trip to Disney. After receiving the visa,
she apparently closed her business and moved to the United States
with her daughter.


5. Comment: Given the margin of error, the two percent overstay
rate found in the study is statistically identical to that found in
the last similar study in October 2008, which found a three percent
rate (reftel). FPU was unable to identify an instance of organized
fraud. Post believes this data indicates the NIV unit is adequately
training its adjudicating officers to identify most types of visa
fraud and properly apply Section 214(b) of the Immigration and
Naturalization Act to standard B2 cases. End Comment.

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