Media Reaction Sao Paulo February 17 2009

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 000107 SIPDIS STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD DEPT PASS USTR USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP XM XR XF BR SUBJECT: Media Reaction Sao Paulo February 17 2009 Media Reaction: Global Economy: Financial market crisis; protectionism; Western Hemisphere: Venezuela, Chvez, re-election referendum; Global Economy: Financial Market crisis; Sao Paulo. Title- Limits to Chavez Editorial in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (2-17) states: "....With the turnaround of [oil] prices, the [Venezuela's] populist government is left with few sources to avoid a sensitive and rapid drop in Venezuelan's level of [consumer] consumption. In this context, an in front of a refortified and active opposition, it is probable that Hugo Chavez's comfort diminishes a lot from now on, regardless of Sunday's victory." Title- Caribbean Messiah Op-Ed in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (2-17) by Clovis Rossi says: "....the messiahnism in politics always ends up in tragedy - either in a prolonged messiah dictatorship or in its collapse....if [the opposition] wants to defeat Chavez in 2012 - only the possibility of reelection was approved, not its obligation - it will have to demonstrate to the deposed that, beyond "messiah", the system will take care of them." Title- The Joke is over Op-Ed in liberal Folha de S. Paulo (2-17) by Eliane Catanhede states: "Now, the joke's over and he [President Hugo Chavez] will have to sit in his chair and do the most difficult thing, besides being also the most boring one: govern.....With the oil price dropping by half, around US$44, US$45, things change [the ability to offer] friendly bonding packages inside and outside of Venezuela on the circuit that includes Cuba, Paraguay, Bolivia and Ecuador [will be difficult]." Title- The Cost of Victory Editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (2-17) says: "Until a month before the referendum, all opinion polls indicated that the unlimited reelection [of the president] would be rejected.....Hugo Chavez reversed this trend, using all the means at his disposal....all this, evidently, will have cost for Hugo Chavez. The referendum proved, once more, that his permanence in power owes itself to a combination of the use of force and populists measures. Without the unlimited access to financial resources from the State, he is not invincible at the ballot-box. The economic and fiscal crisis Venezuela is going through....can shorten the Bolivarian adventure." Title- Not Even the pessimists were right Editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (2-17) says: "Pessimists were wrong for years, estimating the end of global prosperity in the months ahead [at that time]. Now prosperity is over and they were wrong again. The international scene each day shows itself much worse than what they predicted last year, when [the world] acknowledged for the first time in a long time the risk of a global recession.....Indeed, Brazil is so far one of the least affected by the crisis. It has better conditions than the majority [of nations] to avoid an internal deepening of its effects. Nonetheless, for this to happen, the government would need to get away from the stage, abandon its small stimulus packages to chosen sectors and think on fiscal and financial measures compatible with the size of the problem." WHITE