INDEPENDENCE DAY SPEECH: VINTAGE FERNANDEZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTO DOMINGO 000286 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR, LA PAZ FOR A/DCM C LAMBERT E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2029 TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV DR SUBJECT: INDEPENDENCE DAY SPEECH: VINTAGE FERNANDEZ REF: A. SDO 0050 ¶B. SDO 0183 ¶C. 08 SDO 1608 ¶D. SDO 0051 Classified By: Roland W. Bullen, Charge d'Affaires, Reasons 1.4(b),(d) Economic Issues -------------- ¶1. (U) In his Independence Day speech on February 27, President Fernandez was optimistic about the local economy's ability to weather the global economic crisis. Focusing largely on the economic accomplishments of 2008, Fernandez noted that GDP grew 5.3 percent, inflation was 4.5 percent and foreign direct investment was over USD 2.8 billion. For over two hours he provided numerous statistics on everything from tourist arrivals (even listing the increase in arrivals from individual countries) to increases in exports in sectors located in the free trade zones, in order to prove that the economy is doing well. Fernandez defended government spending, including the large number of subsidies and the size of the public payroll. He promised to implement a series of government proposals ranging from training for rural youth to funding for infrastructure projects. Fernandez also announced an increase in funding for education this year. ¶2. (U) According to the President, most of these new initiatives will be funded by multilateral development organizations, with the largest portion coming from the World Bank (WB) and the Inter-American Development Bank (IBD). Fernandez said that the WB would provide a total of USD 413 million, with USD 380 million in budget support funds and USD 33 million in loans for education, health, and energy. He noted the IBD is expected to provide USD 829 million, including USD 350 million in budget support; USD 54 million in loans for education, health and clean water; and an additional USD 300 million for commercial banks and USD 125 million for the private sector. Fernandez said the government also plans to borrow from the Andean Development Corporation, the Central American Economic Integration Bank, and the National Economic and Social Development Bank of Brazil, as well as USD 300 million in funding through PetroCaribe. ¶3. (SBU) While this list of potential funding seems very impressive, it is not clear how much has already been obtained and how much is merely wishful thinking on the part of the government. Local WB Representative Roby Senderowitsch told Econoff that while the GODR is seeking two USD 150 million development policy loans for budget support, it is not at all certain the loans will be approved given the lack of progress on electricity sector reforms (ref A). ¶4. (U) The second half of Fernandez's speech praised the "Summit of National Unity to Confront the International Crisis" (ref B),for bringing together all sectors of society to discuss the broad range of challenges facing the nation. He promised to implement the recommended measures put forward by the seven working groups that fall under the authority of the Executive Branch, depending on the availability of funding. Other proposals would fall under the authority of the Judicial or Legislative branches of the government. The President listed a series of measures to address the agricultural sector and employment, for example, reactivating a National Commission on Employment. He did not address all seven working groups but noted that a Commission would continue to work on the issues raised during the summit and would provide further details on the proposals. Political Issues -------------- ¶5. (U) It was not until the last half-hour of the speech that Fernandez addressed political issues. He stated, among other comments, that: -- Police reform has "not advanced at the speed originally planned for" and that financial assistance from donor countries for the sector "has been limited, despite promises of more collaboration." -- The Government will press the fight against organized crime and drug trafficking -- "In the Dominican Republic, narcotrafficking shall not pass!" -- The people are "concerned and even frightened... by the presence of members of the Armed Forces and National Police in hooliganism related to narcotrafficking and crime" and, that the "evaluation and purging" of the security services will continue "permanently" -- while at the same time arguing that recent criminal cases "constitute an exception" among many prestigious members of the Army and Police. -- The constitutional reform process (Refs C-D) is neither being carried out based on "a whim" nor to address the current economic situation, but rather is intended to "rectify errors and loopholes" and to create "new judicial guarantees," and adding that he expects the proposed changes to the charter to be subjected to "passionate debates" in the congress. (Fernandez paused during the speech to sign into law the bill which formally calls the Senate and House into a special session to consider his constitutional reform proposal.) ¶6. (SBU) The opposition was predictably critical of the speech. Ramon Alburquerque, President of the PRD party, called Fernandez's effort "hollow." Federico Antun, President of the PRSC party, said the speech was "a reiteration of previous speeches, with the novelty of an economic crisis." Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Some critics in the media and private sector have commented that the speech did not seem to be based in the reality of today's global economy. Over the last few months the Fernandez Administration has remained upbeat in its assessment of the economic impact on the DR of the global crisis despite the worsening situation in the U.S., its largest trading partner and an important source of remittances, investment and tourists. Fernandez risks losing credibility if the economic situation begins to worsen, as most economists believe it will. The Economist Intelligence Unit is now predicting the Dominican economy could contract by 0.8 percent in 2009. At a time when the GODR is facing serious financial difficulties, Fernandez is announcing plans to increase spending on the hopes that the government will be able to obtain funding and without any apparent plans to cut spending. His inability to make politically difficult decisions does not bode well for any true reforms to come out of the economic summit process. ¶8. (C) In his Independence Speech, Fernandez made grand pronouncements such as, "I'll repeat it one more time -- only education will save the Dominican Republic," and "I promise, in a solemn manner before you and the Dominican people, to redouble the effort against corruption." Yet he has been President for 9 of the last 13 years and MCC indicators are poor, with the DR in the 28th percentile for education spending and the 30th percentile for controlling corruption. We are beginning to sense that Fernandez may be losing credibility not just in the economic area, but across the board. And this trend has only increased since his August 2008 inauguration speech, when he promised everything under the sun and delivered little. (U) Please visit us at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ BULLEN