CHILEAN OAS TEAM MEMBER ON HONDURAS CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000945 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/12/17 TAGS: PREL CI HO PA GT SUBJECT: CHILEAN OAS TEAM MEMBER ON HONDURAS CRISIS REF: SANTIAGO 935 CLASSIFIED BY: Paul Simons, Ambassador, State, US Embassy Santiago; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (C) On December 17, the Ambassador met with Enrique Correa, a political consultant and former minister who has been working with the OAS to resolve the political crisis in Honduras. Correa, who had been in Honduras November 3 - December 5, praised the strong relationship A/S Valenzuela has developed with President-elect Porfirio Lobo and saluted his own excellent relations with Ambassador Llorens. ¶2. (C) Correa also fully backs the USG focus on facilitating President Zelaya's departure from Honduras so that Zelaya and Lobo can meet. A Zelaya-Lobo meeting would help the latter gain international and national legitimacy, Correa believes. Correa reports that Lobo is eager to meet Zelaya. In fact, Lobo was hoping to reach out to Zelaya but thought that he should wait until after Congress restored Zelaya to office. Now that Congress has decided not to do so, Lobo feels that he cannot reach out to Zelaya for fear of damaging his own political credibility. However, Micheletti and his confidantes are enjoying the humiliation that Zelaya is enduring now and are determined to prevent Zelaya from making a dignified departure from Honduras. Zelaya's departure, Correa argued, would result in strong pressure on Micheletti himself to resign, a move being resisted by Micheletti's hard line inner circle, who wants him to hold out to the bitter end. ¶3. (C) Correa said that the Honduran election was conducted well, calling it "a better election than others I've observed." The abstention rate was not overly high, and there was strong competition among Lobo and other presidential hopefuls. ¶4. (C) Echoing President Bachelet's remarks (septel),Correa said that he was concerned about political stability in Guatemala and Paraguay, two countries with weak presidents and militaries who might be tempted to follow in the footsteps of Honduras if a strong marker was not laid down on the unacceptability of the coup. Repeating a comment President Lagos made to the Ambassador last week (reftel),he said that Micheletti cannot pass the presidential sash to Lobo on the 27th of January. ¶5. (C) Correa concluded by noting that the Honduran political leadership would ultimately need to work out the details of legitimizing Lobo's rule. He lamented the narrow vision of many of the top politicians in Honduras, calling them "rude ranchers" lacking any broader sense of the impact of their decisions on their country's welfare. SIMONS