Chile's Counterintuitive Presidential Race: Why a

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SANTIAGO 000897 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC, INR/B, WHA/EPSC, S/P PENTAGON FOR OSD--MLENIHAN AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PASS TO AMCONSUL QUEBEC E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/13 TAGS: PGOV ECON PINR CI SUBJECT: Chile's Counterintuitive Presidential Race: Why a 36-Year-Old Is a Stronger Opponent than a Former President REF: SANTIAGO 835; SANTIAGO 615 SANTIAGO 00000897 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: UrbanCarol, DCM, State, US Embassy; REASON: 1.4(B) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Chile's presidential election will likely be decided in a run-off election on January 17 pitting opposition candidate Sebastian Pinera against either former president Eduardo Frei or young parliamentarian Marco Enriquez-Ominami. While Frei currently looks more likely to make it to the second round, poll results indicate that Enriquez-Ominami would have a greater chance of defeating Pinera. End Summary. Pinera, Frei, and Enriquez-Ominami Locked into First, Second, and Third Places in the First Round -------------- -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Chile's presidential candidates remain locked in first, second, and third position with only modest changes in the last two months, according to survey results released November 12 by the Centro de Estudios Publicos (CEP). In a first round election scenario, opposition candidate Sebastian Pinera continues to lead the pack but is not gaining support, consistently polling at 36-37% since June (Refs A and B). Former president Eduardo Frei remains in second place but continued his very slow decline, dropping 2 points to 26% from 28% in August and a high of 30% in June. Meanwhile, independent leftist candidates Marco Enriquez-Ominami and Jorge Arrate have increased their support. Upstart challenger Enriquez-Ominami now has the support of 19% of likely voters in the first round, whereas veteran politician Jorge Arrate now has the support of 5% of voters. ¶3. (SBU) At the same time, the poll results reaffirm the conventional wisdom that no one will win a majority in the first round, making a run-off election highly likely. (Note: The first round is Sunday, December 13. If required, the runoff election will be held on Sunday, January 17. End Note.) All of the major candidates are likely to have an even stronger showing in the first round than the poll numbers indicate. The poll measures separately any voters who indicate that they would not cast a valid ballot--either by not voting, casting a blank ballot, or casting a spoiled ballot. However these voters--who accounted for 14% of survey respondents--would not be included in official tallies. Even so, Pinera still falls short of the 50% mark necessary to win in the first round. Looking only at responses from voters who indicated that they would cast a valid ballot, Pinera would receive 42% of votes, compared to 30% for Frei and 22% for Enriquez-Ominami. A Counterintuitive Second Round -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Given the low probability that any candidate will win 50% of the vote in the first round and Pinera's strong and consistent lead in polls, the real question is who will face Pinera in the second round and whether anyone can beat him. The somewhat counterintuitive answer is that while Frei is most likely to make it to the second round, Enriquez-Ominami could be a stronger candidate in the second round. According to the poll--Chile's most respected--Pinera would edge out Enriquez-Ominami by just three points--the margin of error of the survey--but would best Frei by six points. Why is a Former President is Easier to Defeat than a 36-Year-Old Upstart? -------------- -------------- SANTIAGO 00000897 002.2 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. (C) Why would a 36-year-old former filmmaker known for his occasionally provocative positions (by staid Chilean standards) and having made anti-Chilean comments in the past be more competitive than the former president who was elected by the widest margin in recent Chilean history? One likely answer has to do with what is motivating supporters of each presidential candidate. Eduardo Frei is seen as solid, stable, and boring. He represents continuity with President Bachelet's successful and politically progressive policies, but also brings the baggage of fairly low approval ratings during his administration and continuing 20 years of Concertacion rule, which is seen by many as stale, inefficient, and at times corrupt. Voting for Frei is often less about supporting Frei as an individual, and most often about voting against Alianza and its candidate, Pinera. (Note: Alianza, the center-right coalition, is still associated with Pinochet supporters in the minds of many Chileans. End Note.). Therefore, should Frei not make it to the second round, his voters would migrate en masse to support Enriquez-Ominami. The CEP poll confirms this: among those who would cast valid ballots in the second round, just 18% of Frei supporters would vote for Pinera, while 84% would vote for Enriquez-Ominami. ¶6. (C) In contrast to the former president, Enriquez-Ominami draws support from several different groups with diverse motivations. Enriquez-Ominami represents youth, energy, and change--similar in some ways to Sebastian Pinera, but with a more left-leaning outlook. His levels of support among self-identified political centrists and leftists are not that far behind Frei's. (Among those who describe themselves as part of the left or center-left, 41% would vote for Frei and 33% for Enriquez-Ominami. Among centrists, 33% support Frei and 24% support Enriquez-Ominami.) While his rhetoric and campaign image are largely about challenging the status quo, for those few who pay attention to his political platforms, some of his positions on social policy--such as on gay civil unions, abortion, and marijuana--are remarkably liberal for a socially conservative country like Chile. While Frei would likely pick up support from Enriquez-Ominami's die-hard progressive supporters, voters looking for a change or to send a signal to the Concertacion would naturally back Pinera. According to the CEP poll, 57% of Enriquez-Ominami supporters would vote for Frei, while 43% would back Pinera. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) The widely regarded CEP poll--which in the past has sometimes played a decisive role in Chile's elections, including convincing Michelle Bachelet's Concertacion rival to drop out in 2005--has this year largely documented the consistent lead of opposition candidate Sebastian Pinera, the very slow decline of former president Eduardo Frei, and the steadily rising support for young parliamentarian Marco Enriquez-Ominami. The poll's most interesting finding--that a 36-year-old with limited government experience is currently a stronger opponent than a former president--further highlights the weaknesses of Eduardo Frei's campaign and frustration with 20 years of Concertacion rule. ¶8. (C) Frei's and Concertacion's vulnerabilities are well-known and probably fully reflected in the polls. Up to now, however, Enriquez-Ominami has not been hurt by his weaknesses -- notably his inexperience, liberal social policies, and absence of party support. Were he to face Pinera in a second round, the Pinera team intends to emphasize those vulnerabilities. It remains to be seen whether Enriquez-Ominami's current popularity would withstand greater focus on those shortcomings. Similarly, Chilean voters may find that their enthusiasm for change and youth is more easily expressed to a pollster than when actually choosing the leader of SANTIAGO 00000897 003.2 OF 003 their country in the voting booth. End Comment. SIMONS