CHILE: Opposition Candidate Pinera Continues to Lead in

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 000835 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - CORRECTED PARAGRAPH NUMBERING SIPDIS AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/04 TAGS: PGOV CI SUBJECT: CHILE: Opposition Candidate Pinera Continues to Lead in Polls, But Faces Tight Second Round Against Frei REF: SANTIAGO 615 DERIVED FROM: Derived from previous message. ¶1. (U) Summary: Chile's opposition coalition, Alianza, has its best chance ever to win the presidency. For the first time in twenty years, the nation's most respected poll shows an opposition candidate leading the first round of voting in the presidential race 100 days before the election. Nonetheless, the final result of the election is likely to be a photo finish. In a likely Sebastian Pinera vs. Eduardo Frei second round match up, the two candidates are in a statistical dead. Upstart challenger Marco Enriquez-Ominami remains a strong third place contender, but is unlikely to make it past the first round of voting. End Summary. Pinera Still Leads in the First Round -------------- ¶2. (U) The front runners in Chile's presidential race remain fixed in first, second, and third position, with relatively little change in the last three months, according to the nation's most widely respected poll, published by the Centro de Estudios Publicos on September 4. Opposition candidate Sebastian Pinera maintained his 37 percent support among registered voters, while support for former president and Concertacion candidate Eduardo Frei dropped slightly from 30 percent to 28 percent and independent candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami gained 4 percentage points, reaching 17 percent. This is the first time since Chile's return to democracy in 1990 that an opposition candidate has led in this key poll 100 days before the election. Survey Shows a Statistical Dead Heat in the Second Round... -------------- -------------- ¶3. (U) While Frei is somewhat weaker than three months ago, poll results indicate that he is clearly still the center-left's best choice for defeating Sebastian Pinera. Enriquez-Ominami has substantially narrowed Frei's lead, reducing it from 17 points to 11 points in a first round vote scenario. However, in a theoretical run-off election between Enriquez-Ominami and Pinera, Pinera beats upstart Enriquez-Ominami by 10 points. In contrast, Pinera and Frei remain in a statistical dead heat when paired against each other in a second round vote. ...But Other Indicators Give Pinera the Edge -------------- ¶4. (U) While those surveyed are evenly divided in their support should Pinera and Frei face off in the second round, by several other measures Pinera has pulled ahead. Most significantly, 53 percent of those surveyed believe that Pinera will be the country's next president, compared to just 30 percent betting on Frei. Pinera's public image also seems to be improving markedly, with Pinera now beating Frei on six of ten measures of attributes, such as ability to solve problems and take action. Even in an area where Frei should have a clear advantage -- preparedness to be president -- the former president can only manage to tie his rival. Pinera also has the lowest negative numbers of any major candidate: 44 percent of voters say they would never vote for him, compared to 49 percent for Frei and 53 percent for Enriquez-Ominami. ¶5. (U) The public's respect for Pinera's abilities seems to be balancing out a lack of confidence in his political coalition and overcoming support for President Bachelet. Thirty-eight percent of those polled approve of the ruling Concertacion coalition, versus just 30 percent approval of Pinera's Alianza opposition coalition. Frei Team Admits Mistakes -------------- ¶6. (C) Members of Frei's campaign team admit that the campaign has suffered setbacks. In comments to the press, Socialist party president Camilo Escalona admitted that the campaign had committed a number of "autogoles" (scoring for the opponent's team) particularly in recent public disagreements within Concertacion circles. In a conversation before the poll results were released, Juan Gabriel Valdes, a former foreign minister advising the Frei campaign, told the Ambassador that Frei himself was a very poor candidate who was completely lacking in charisma. Concertacion was doing a poor job with the Frei campaign, he said, whereas Enriquez-Ominami's campaign was "smart" and had committed "no errors." Frei has been trying to ride Bachelet's coattails but with limited success, he said, and the Concertacion is paying the price for failing to renew itself earlier. ¶7. (SBU) In contrast, Pinera supporters maintain that their campaign has not made any errors. Miguel Flores, Executive Director of the conservative Jaime Guzman Foundation think tank, said that the biggest difference between this and previous elections is that the two conservative parties, seeing an opportunity to displace the Concertacion, have remained firmly united behind Pinera. Public Perception and Demographic Trends -------------- ¶8. (U) Oddly, the Chilean public perceives Pinera to be much further to the right than most political analysts and even his campaign team believe that he is. Chilean voters place themselves firmly in the center of the political spectrum on average, with Concertacion candidate Frei slightly to their left. Pinera, however, is viewed not as the centrist that analysts see but as a member of the far-right, with a plurality of respondents rating him as a 10 -- the most conservative ranking possible. ¶9. (U) Disparate voting trends are also evident among different demographic groups. Upstart Enriquez-Ominami is more popular with young people and urban voters. Frei performs strongly among older voters, leading Pinera by 8 points among voters 55 and over. Pinera performs more strongly among men than women (40 percent support versus 33 percent). Pinera has pulled ahead of Frei in rural areas, a gain of 7 points over his performance three months ago. Comment -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Chile's presidential race appears to have settled into a stable pattern: Pinera leads comfortably when Enriquez-Ominami distracts center-left voters from Frei. However, once Enriquez-Ominami is eliminated, as in a probable Pinera-Frei run off election, the result is too close to call. Enriquez-Ominami continues to rise in the polls, but seems to have already won over many of his most likely supporters: young urbanites. It is hard to imagine him making it to the second round. This election shows every indication of being a nail-biter, with the contest between Frei and Pinera settled by a slim margin in January's run off voting. End Comment. SIMONS